It’s July 1st! What’s going to happen the rest of the year?
The presidential election is likely to become a distraction, especially if it is a close race.
Both buyers and sellers will wonder if it is better to suspend their efforts, and wait to see if the election results might bring changes to the real estate market (doubtful).
With mortgage rates in the 3s, market conditions this year have been unlike any other. We have seen more detached sales in the North SD County Coastal region in any first-half since 2005, when there were 1,548 sales averaging $474/sf:
|Year||1H Sales||1H Avg $/sf||2H Sales||2H Avg $/sf|
It would be a miracle if we came close to duplicating the sales symmetry of the last two years! Unless there is an eye-popping change that causes more listings (there are 1,064 actives today), sales should dwindle over the next few months, even though there is demand.
These are the NSDCC detached new-listing counts for each half – lately we’ve been seeing 22%-29% fewer listings in the second half, compared to the first half of each year:
|Year||1H New Listings||2H New Listings||Chg.|
At this rate, we’ll probably see fewer than 2,000 new listings the rest of 2012, which should pull down the second-half sales to under 1,200.
What do you think will happen in the real estate market during the second half of 2012?