From Lawrence Yun, NAR economist – I just want to have this on record:
I participate in the Blue Chip Consensus forecast with around 50 other economists representing organizations such as FedEx, Dupont, Ford Motors, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Wells Fargo, Bank of Tokyo, Swiss Re, and UCLA. This forecast is often mentioned by the Congressional Budget Office, Administrations, and various politicians to say that their outlook is (or was) not too much different from the private sector forecasts.
Forecasting can be a hazardous sport at times. Interestingly though, this Blue Chip average consensus forecast value generally tends to be more accurate than any individual economist’s forecast over the long run. That is to say, it is better trust the consensus forecast more so than an individual economist’s forecast.
So, what is the Blue Chip consensus saying about the bottoming of home values? In the latest January issue, a solid majority of economists said the Case-Shiller home price index will finally bottom in 2012.
The exact phrasing of the question and the response tally are below:
Technically, if counting the small decimal point, the price may in fact bottom out in 2012. But as the graph below shows, for all practical purposes it looks as if home prices started to stabilize from 2009 onward. Of course, there will be local market differences (with markets like Washington, D.C. showing price gains while Las Vegas is showing price declines). It is therefore not surprising that mortgage loans originating from 2009 on show exceptionally low default rates.
50 economists with an interest in real estate bottoming in 2012 predict a bottom? Yunbelievable!
What was the consensus last year?
“Forecasting can be a hazardous sport at times.”
Jim, how do you feel about the leader the professional organization that represents YOU loosely referring to the deadly serious business of forecasting as ‘a hazardous sport’?
How does the rank and file of the NAR allow this man to remain your spokesman ?
They act like it’s all a big joke.
They collect around $200 per year from each of the 1,021,338 members.
$200 million+ in income!
The president and board are volunteer realtors – where does the money go? They blow it on politicians.
I know many agents who have lost their homes and are really struggling to survive. They could use some training in how to sell houses in this environment, a great website like Redfin or Zip that retains clients, and a professional organization that advertises educational material to the public.
What do we get?
http://www.realtor.org
Enjoy this entry:
http://realtormag.realtor.org/technology/feature/article/2011/11/future-real-estate
“Enjoy this entry:
http://realtormag.realtor.org/technology/feature/article/2011/11/future-real-estate”
Hey Jim, I’m looking at this house… I need you to send me what we should offer on it from the future Jim so we can make this deal happen… and while you are at it, send me tomorrows lotto numbers!
And I thought my union sucked…