Just some guy wanted to see what this May graph looked like when you exclude La Jolla and RSF:
Here are the sales detached sales and pricing for NSDCC in May, without La Jolla and the Ranch.
The pricing is about 10% less, and the trends are less extreme, which is expected when the product is more uniform around tract-home areas:
They both show how sales were heading downward already in 2001, before 9/11 happened – which caused the market to freeze up for a couple of months.
But 2002 came back strong – why? Because Countrywide started pushing the interest-only mortgages, which helped to re-ignite the amateur speculators who had been taking advantage of the 2-out-of-5-year tax-free-gains program.
Then Countrywide rolled out their neg-am product in 2003, and you can see how those artificially-low payments helped to spike pricing. We are a monthly-payment-oriented society!
Plot a trend line for sales – it looks like the rest of NSDCC has been comfortable with around 200 sales in May, regardless of pricing.
The difference now is that low fixed rates are causing payments today to be ultra-low too – but they’re permanent, not temporary like the neg-am programs.
I am not seeing the point of excluding RSF and LJ. Is it to try and get a result more desired?
And, does this latest graph include Rancho Bernardo, Rancho Penasquitos and Scripps? I know there are a few individual who want to see those numbers because I guess they live out there, but, they really aren’t relevant to the data. Might as well include Julian and Escondido. However RSF and LJ are relevant.
Good insights into what moved the graph.
RSF and La Jolla are mostly custom homes with long term ownership. The buying and selling of homes in these neighborhoods is tightly controlled by an old guard of established Realtors. I suppose you could possibly say the same thing about parts of Del Mar.
I think the point is to separate the track homes of CV, Carlsbad, and some Encinitas from the established wealth of La Jolla and RSF. La Jolla and RSF were for the owners of the company, CV is for the Senior Engineers and Managers.
Good point livincali. Del Mar for the same reason should be excluded to further distinquish tract v.s. custom.
Thank you JtR for the graph and analysis.
But the thing about North County Coastal is that Del Mar, Solana Beach, Cardiff, Encinitas including Leucadia and Olde Carlsbad, also do not have tract homes along the coast or even within a few miles of the coast.
Same types of ownership and wealth as well.
How much more do you exclude to get the answer that you want?
Probably the most reasonable way to separate would be year built. Older homes would be original custom or remodel customs while anything built after about 1990-1995 would be some form of track home.
I do think there’s a bit of a prestige difference between La Jolla, Del Mar, and RSF vs Solana Beach or Encinitas. There was a time 20-30 years ago where Solana Beach and Encinitas were sleepy coastal towns that weren’t even near the prestige of La Jolla or Encinitas.
I mean to say RSF instead of Encinitas in the last line. Oh well.