Just some guy wanted to see what this May graph looked like when you exclude La Jolla and RSF:

Here are the sales detached sales and pricing for NSDCC in May, without La Jolla and the Ranch. 

The pricing is about 10% less, and the trends are less extreme, which is expected when the product is more uniform around tract-home areas:

They both show how sales were heading downward already in 2001, before 9/11 happened – which caused the market to freeze up for a couple of months. 

But 2002 came back strong – why?  Because Countrywide started pushing the interest-only mortgages, which helped to re-ignite the amateur speculators who had been taking advantage of the 2-out-of-5-year tax-free-gains program.

Then Countrywide rolled out their neg-am product in 2003, and you can see how those artificially-low payments helped to spike pricing.  We are a monthly-payment-oriented society!

Plot a trend line for sales – it looks like the rest of NSDCC has been comfortable with around 200 sales in May, regardless of pricing.

The difference now is that low fixed rates are causing payments today to be ultra-low too – but they’re permanent, not temporary like the neg-am programs.

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