The next Case-Shiller reading is coming out tomorrow, and you can bet that the MSM will be screaming double-dip all day. Because the C-S index will be reflecting the Nov-Dec-Jan numbers, it’ll be dated for those who are thinking of moving today.
What is happening in March, 2011?
The month isn’t done yet, but North SD County Coastal is faring pretty well, compared to last March. Here are the closed sales and average cost-per-sf for March, 2010, compared to those closed so far this year:
| Area & Zip Code | March, 2010 | March, 2011 |
| SE Carlsbad, 92009 | 58/$269 | 31/$246 |
| SW Carlsbad, 92011 | 13/$318 | 12/$305 |
| Carmel Valley, 92130 | 32/$326 | 32/$351 |
| DM/SB, 92014-75 | 10/$764 | 14/$641 |
| Encinitas, 92024 | 28/$360 | 19/$313 |
| RSF, 92067 | 9/$491 | 20/$448 |
| Total Above | 150/$349 | 129/$362 |
Pricing is down in the individual zip codes, measured by the flimsy “average cost-per-sf” – only Carmel Valley shows an increase. But sales are fairly healthy – if buyers can just find the right house, at the right price!
Your math doesn’t work out for me, is something being left out of the total intentionally? It’s Monday, and I’m still half asleep, so forgive me if I’m wrong.
Maybe NCCSD is holding up, but the rest of the nation is getting killed. The layer of smug is starting to get pretty thick in these parts.
Price per sqft number is right based on a weighted average. The number of homes sold total is missing CV. I have 2010 = 150/$354.87, 2011 = 128/$366.32
We’ll probably be hearing this double dip talk until September. Both because of market mix and the lingering effect of last year’s tax credits.
Locally the market is quite strong if not solidly smug.
Jim,
Any numbers for 92010, 92008 zip code? That shd cover Carlsbad.
Real Estate is all Local. National, State and even County wide trends do not directly apply to individual zip codes and neighbourhoods, especially in a region as diverse as San Diego.
Coastal and Prime areas are following different patterns than inland areas. La Jolla, RSF and Del Mar were out-of-reach in the past and are still out-of-reach at around $350+/sqft. Coastal Carlsbad is getting there even in this market.
92011 is showing an interesting equilibrium between Buyers and Sellers. Good Product is getting picked up by buyers in a very short time, at or more than the asking price. We have seen that with Deffadil, Daisy and Barberry. OTOH, Bad Product that got sold easily during bubble is now getting big punishment (3300 sqft one in “The Bay Collectiion” now at 775k … it backs to busy Poinsettia and was sold at 1Mil+ at the peak).
This equilibrium is a very Healthy sign and points to the general market stability on the coast.
I see math problems also.
You say RSF pricing went up, but the numbers are
$491 in 2010 and $448 in 2011. $488 < $491.
You also say that overall, pricing went down, but the bottom-line total numbers are $349 in 2010 and $362 in 2011. $349 to $362 represents an increase.
Thanks, I updated the post.
I got a little distracted by the sales doubling in RSF.
Here’s a March update of a different kind (sorry, went grocery shopping last night)
Dryer’s Ice Cream
March 2009: .5 gallon (2 Qts) $4.50
March 2010: 1.75 Qts $4.50
March 2011: 1.5 Qts $4.50
I see price inflation relatively stable, but quantity deflation is in full effect.
Yes, Jim comments about pricing going down, and yet the bottom line numbers increased from $349 to $362. The price per sq ft went down in most areas, so his comments is correct. The fact that the overall price per sq ft went up is purely a product of the mix … since the total sales in the least expensive area went down, it caused the average to go up. That’s the problem with stats … they can lead you away from what’s actually happening. To repeat others … realty is local … the more you combine stats into larger clumps, the more possibility of misinterpretation.