Clear Capital released its monthly Home Data Index™ (HDI) Market Report, reporting a year-over-year national price change in 2010 of -4.1 percent, and expects another -3.7 percent year-over-year change in 2011.
The HDI Market Report provides the most current (through December 2010) and granular analysis of how local markets performed compared to the national trend in home prices, as well as a 12-month forecast of what to expect in 2011.
“In terms of home prices, this past year has certainly been characterized by uncertainty,” said Dr. Alex Villacorta, senior statistician, Clear Capital. “Tax incentives and high levels of distressed sale activity had counter effects on home prices which contributed to the fragility of the markets.”
“Some housing markets are well on their way to recovery, while others are experiencing a renewed downturn reminiscent of the housing crash only two years ago,” added Dr. Villacorta. “Understanding which path a given market is likely to follow is dependent on several key factors, but the two clear drivers are local unemployment rates and the prevalence of distressed homes.”
Clear Capital Home Data Index: National Home Price Trends
(Jan. 2006 – Dec. 2011 Forecast)
National home prices in 2010 posted a -4.1 percent year-over-year price change, after a very turbulent year where prices increased 9.7 percent over a 21 week span (late March to mid August), only to be followed by a -9.4 percent price change over the following 19 weeks (September to December). Click for larger image:
In 2011, national and regional metrics will still provide general price indicators, but more granular analysis will be required for market participants to truly assess price movements. The wild spikes experienced in 2010 will likely be replaced with more gradual price trends this year. Price forecasts show varying levels of decline across all four regions in 2011, with local markets in the West expected to accumulate the largest overall losses.
California markets typically showed a faster rebound than other hard hit states as six of the 15 markets managed price gains (Riverside, San Diego, Los Angeles, San Jose, San Francisco, and Fresno). The only major California market to decline was Sacramento (-1.4 percent price change).