Snippets from Rich Toscano’s latest article in the voiceofsandiego.org:
The median price per square foot of San Diego resale homes took a hit last month. Home prices by this measure were down 3.5 percent for single family homes, 2.4 percent for condos, and 3.0 percent in aggregate.
December’s price decline more or less nullifies the last of the effects of the stimulus-driven 2010 spring rally, bringing the median price per square foot back into the range it inhabited in late 2009 and early 2010. In fact, December prices were 1.2 percent lower than a year prior — the first negative year-over-year change since October 2009.
Inventory continued the gentle downslope that began in the autumn:
For a few months now, the level of available supply in comparison to demand (as measured by months of inventory) has suggested that prices would trend flat-to-down. So the December price decline comes as no surprise. Things could change in the new year, but for now, inventory levels continue to presage prices that are flat at best, with a decent chance of being a little worse than that.
http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/toscano/article_246540c0-1a06-11e0-babd-001cc4c03286.html
I think I would rather have some real estate that cash flows rather than dive into an overpriced stock market.With real estate you know what you have.If you buy stocks they tell you you own part of the company, lmao.Most of these stocks pay no dividends.People are arrested daily for insider trading.The people that have access to the Fed reserve know how to place bets accordingly.The avg time a stock is held these days is 22 seconds.Common shareholders are the last to be paid in bankruptcy.
So what would you rather own?
There are more investments out there than just RE and stocks. Both of those games are rigged.
And for those few viewers still listening to jim cramer:
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-march-9-2009/in-cramer-we-trust
how much of December’s decline is due to the seasonal effect?
Toscano and Voice of San Diego have an agenda like nearly all sources. Should be called “Voice of Renters in San Diego”.
I love how people like to market 2005 as the beginning of the world. What’s that graph like if it goes to 2000? Or if you ran it with gold or the stock market?
Quick clarification; ran the graph for gold and the stock market from 2000.
robo – that’s a good one.
seasonal? I used to think that not only sales but prices too went down the last couple of months of any year. But it hasn’t been like that in recent years.
I love Rich’s last two charts – showing the inverted relationship between sales and inventory.
If there is a surge of OPTs, the market could stall rather abruptly.
Jim, list prices are down around 10% year over year in Mission Hills. How are list prices looking in North County coastal year over year?
RE: “I love Rich’s last two charts – showing the inverted relationship between sales and inventory.
If there is a surge of OPTs, the market could stall rather abruptly.”
I think you might got the relation reversed. In other words, less sales caused inventory (OPT) to accumulate.
That’s a conclusion you could come to…..but I’m going to stick with mine.
I think the demand is so razor-specific that listings are either in the game (priced within 5% of being right), or they are not.
The speed at which new listings go stale is remarkable. Sellers get their surge of lookers early, then just an occasional visit, usually from a buyer who is thinking of buying a better-priced house down the street.
If a surge of OPTs came on, they are going to sit regardless of the sales volume beneath them – those who right-price. There probably will be a surge of those in Mar-May, and knowing which is which, may not be that obvious.
“I think the demand is so razor-specific that listings are either in the game (priced within 5% of being right), or they are not.”
Jim, being priced right in this market is a moving target. I think the abruptness in which demand (and prices) dropped in some areas caught sellers off guard last year. On a PPSF basis, list prices are much lower than they were this time last year so the market is certainly trying to adjust. The sellers that cut price and got out ahead of the market downturn late last year look pretty smart right now. You called it last year in your blog.
Props.
“The sellers that cut price and got out ahead of the market downturn late last year look pretty smart right now. You called it last year in your blog.”
That’s always going to be the case. Buyers always want to feel like they got a deal no matter what they are buying. Of course a deal is relative to the time frame they are buying in. People that bought a 1080p flat screen TV 3 years ago for $1999 thought they were getting a great deal in comparison to the average prices at the time of over $2250. Now you get the same thing for less than $1000 in some cases.
It’s all about perception so you either have an immaculate house that is totally up to date and move in ready for slightly more than recent comps or you want to list for 5-10% less than recent comps/other comparable properties on the market. If you’re not in either one of those camps you’re basically wasting your time being on the market. Today’s buyer’s are qualified and frustrated, but they seem to be willing to be patient and not bite on the bad deals.
Of course short sales could have a decent reason to be overpriced, some people in that camp are just looking to milk the free rent.
“If you’re not in either one of those camps you’re basically wasting your time being on the market.”
And making it difficult for other more serious sellers by bloating the inventory with OPTs.
“Toscano and Voice of San Diego have an agenda like nearly all sources. Should be called “Voice of Renters in San Diego””
Mozart, when people stoop to making lame ad hominem arguments like you have, it’s always a sign that they can’t find actual facts to back up their positions. (Whatever your position is — you didn’t actually bother to say).
What makes me giggle when I read crap like this from people like you is that I get just as much flack from the permabear side. You are just like them — you aren’t interested in facts, you only want to hear something that supports your predetermined opinion, and you will attack anyone who doesn’t comply. If no facts are conveniently available, you will just fabricate personal attacks. Absolutely typical of your perma-bull/bear ilk.
My “agenda” is and always has been to figure out what’s going on to the best of my ability. That’s it. If you cared to read back over what I’ve written over the years, you would see this. (You would also see that I routinely put up charts going much farther back many years or even decades — but why bother looking for those a few posts back when you can just lazily assume that I consider 2005 the “beginning of time?”)
So why don’t you actually take a little time to try to understand what’s going on instead of wasting everyone’s time with useless and unfounded personal attacks.
Rich,
The vast majority of the people who read your blog know that you are objective and present both the bull case and the bear case for SD housing as you see them. But you’re always going to run into people with blinders on. C’est la vie. Thanks for your efforts.
SM
It’s a fact that the internet allows people to remain anonymous, that so many views get expressed without due care and consideration. Somebody needs to write a book of rules, otherwise we are going to turn into a society of two-faced cowards.
Ditto on richt’s comment in 14. Mozart obviously hasn’t read Rich’s blog for very long or very thoroughly.