Comments in the latimes.com about September sales:
“We are in the doldrums. Nothing much is happening,” said Richard Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate. “We are now kind of bumping along, not doing particularly well, but not doing any worse either, and that is probably where we are going to be for a while.”
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Glenn Kelman, chief executive of online brokerage Redfin, said the uncertainty in the marketplace after the expiration of tax credits had created a standoff between buyers and sellers.
“There are a huge number of buyers touring houses, but they have no sense of urgency whatsoever,” Kelman said. “They are all convinced that property values will drop. They are probably right, and they all want a discount.”
And sellers, “instead of lowering their prices,” he said, “are boarding up their windows for the winter, and they are going to wait for the spring.”
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“Today’s market can be characterized as much by activity that’s not happening, as by the activity that is happening. We’re seeing distress-selling, bargain-hunting and entry-level buying, while the rest of the market is still largely on hold,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.
“As many wait for this market uncertainty and turbulence to pass, demand is being generated and is accumulating. At some point, the mortgage spigot will be re-opened and there will be a surge of buying activity, probably financed with low interest rates,” he said.
The comparisons for detached MLS sales in North SD County Coastal:
| Month/Yr | # of sales | Avg. $$-per-sf | DOM |
| Sept ’05 | 265 | $530/sf | 55 |
| Sept ’08 | 183 | $419/sf | 70 |
| Sept ’09 | 229 | $376/sf | 73 |
| Aug. ’10 | 210 | $367/sf | 62 |
| Sept ’10 | 216 | $396/sf | 74 |
Remember how the sales in September and October ’09 were unusually high? This year detached sales in September were only down 6% year-over-year, with a 5% increase in average cost-per-sf.
Hell I don’t know nuthin but it looks to me like a unstoppable force meeting an unmoveable object, i.e., a classic market bottom. Whatever you think about a pure market, it looks like the reality is that the gubmnit is gonna prop this thing up right here at any cost.
Excellent post. One of those industry guys should have called it the slogfest too.
Good luck with the .GOV pump, at this point all they’ve got left is to currency debasement.
When, not IF, that game gets out-of-control, that’s not going to be a great thing for the country at large, and no one can tell you otherwise.
And if you think that’s gonna put a firm bottom under the RE market, you have -0- grasp of basic economics.
Of course you’re not alone, it appears the Fraud St./DC machine is creating new rules out of thin air as they go the last decade…
Got PMs?
Not sure if I agree with “classic market bottom.” This standoff is exactly what happened in 2006 just before the big drop.