From the RE Channel:
Looking for a conservative residential real estate market in which to invest? Local Market Monitor Inc., a 20-year-old, Cary, NC research and consulting firm, has updated its previous rankings and posted the 10 best and worst markets.
Tulsa, Oklahoma City and the San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, Calif. area is ranked at the top, in that order, on the Best Markets List.
Ocala, FL, Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL, Reno-Sparks, NV and the Orlando-Kissimmee, FL are ranked at the top, in that order, on the Worst Markets List.
Local Market Monitor analyzes trends for lenders, builders and investors. The company compiled its newest Investor Suitability report using data through Sept. 30 for 315 U.S. markets. The firm is known for its housing-market forecasts using “equilibrium” home prices, what home values probably should be in relation to population, job growth and income, according to the WSJ.
High-ranking areas for investor suitability are places where there’s a positive three-year home price forecast, employment is stable and only a small share of jobs are in highly volatile industries such as construction and financial services.
The best markets for conservative investors show signs of price stabilization; dangerous markets are those where it appears prices will fall further and probably won’t turn around soon because of poor local economies.
Speculative markets are those with higher upside potential, but more risk. According to the updated report, which will be released during the week of Oct. 11, El Paso, Texas; Cincinnati, Ohio. and Worcester, Mass. climbed into the top, showing positive trends.
Here are the lists:
Top 10 Conservative Metro Areas*
- Tulsa, Okla.
- Oklahoma City, Okla.
- San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, Calif.
- Albany-Schenectady-Troy, N.Y.
- Indianapolis-Carmel, Ind.
- El Paso, Texas
- Winston-Salem, N.C.
- Cincinnati-Middletown, Ohio-Ky.-Ind.
- Worcester, Mass.
- Louisville-Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind.
Top 10 Dangerous Metro Areas*
- Ocala, Fla.
- Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.
- Reno-Sparks, Nev.
- Orlando-Kissimmee, Fla.
- Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla.
- Port St. Lucie, Fla.
- Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev.
- Boise City-Nampa, Id.
- Prescott, Ariz.
- Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla.
Local Market Monitor.com excludes markets with populations less than 200,000.
El Paso, Texas
At night from several parts of the city, you can see the tracer bullets from a real war with no end in sight going on across the border.
Conservative, yes. Safe place to invest. ????
You sure the conservative reference isn’t regarding political leanings? All the other “safe” places seem to be very low cost of living areas or outright rust belt zones which never got a whiff of bubble mania. I love SD, but this is a real head-scratcher. It would be interesting to see if home-owner indebtedness was taken into account, ie, how many mortgages are underwater, at break-even, debt to income ratios, etc. How much economic stress are people taking on in these areas? That may be a more prescient indicator of future market stability.
Agreed Consultant, I don’t like anything about the El Paso/Juarez drug war in progress.
One of the criteria was: employment is stable
Private citizens there have to be wanting bodyguards/drivers. The private-security business must be a growing trade and contributing to stable employment? Or enough people leave every day that employment is balanced?
It could happen here someday.
San Marcos is wondurbar. I grew up in Carlsbad and decided to buy in San Marcos about 18 months ago. Better pricing, warm in the morning time, and easy access to I-15 up to RB where many tech companies have set up shop and more continue to follow suit. Nokia just put up the open sign last week http://bit.ly/aAP4Kv