From the RE Channel:

Looking for a conservative residential real estate market in which to invest?  Local Market Monitor Inc., a 20-year-old, Cary, NC research and consulting firm, has updated its previous rankings and posted the 10 best and worst markets.

Tulsa, Oklahoma City and the San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, Calif. area is ranked at the top, in that order, on the Best Markets List.

Ocala, FL, Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL, Reno-Sparks, NV and the Orlando-Kissimmee, FL are ranked at the top, in that order, on the Worst Markets List.

Local Market Monitor analyzes trends for lenders, builders and investors. The company compiled its newest Investor Suitability report using data through Sept. 30 for 315 U.S. markets.  The firm is known for its housing-market forecasts using “equilibrium” home prices, what home values probably should be in relation to population, job growth and income, according to the WSJ.

High-ranking areas for investor suitability are places where there’s a positive three-year home price forecast, employment is stable and only a small share of jobs are in highly volatile industries such as construction and financial services.

The best markets for conservative investors show signs of price stabilization; dangerous markets are those where it appears prices will fall further and probably won’t turn around soon because of poor local economies.

Speculative markets are those with higher upside potential, but more risk.  According to the updated report, which will be released  during the week of Oct. 11, El Paso, Texas; Cincinnati, Ohio. and Worcester, Mass. climbed into the top, showing positive trends.

Here are the lists:

Top 10 Conservative Metro Areas*

  • Tulsa, Okla.
  • Oklahoma City, Okla.
  • San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, Calif.
  • Albany-Schenectady-Troy, N.Y.
  • Indianapolis-Carmel, Ind.
  • El Paso, Texas
  • Winston-Salem, N.C.
  • Cincinnati-Middletown, Ohio-Ky.-Ind.
  • Worcester, Mass.
  • Louisville-Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind.

Top 10 Dangerous Metro Areas*

  • Ocala, Fla.
  • Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.
  • Reno-Sparks, Nev.
  • Orlando-Kissimmee, Fla.
  • Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla.
  • Port St. Lucie, Fla.
  • Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev.
  • Boise City-Nampa, Id. 
  • Prescott, Ariz.
  • Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla.

Local Market excludes markets with populations less than 200,000.

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