Our friends at Dr HB mentioned that inventory is rising in Southern California.
How about San Diego?
Here is a comparison of all detached and attached SD properties listed in April and May since 1999, and the percentage change between the two months:
| April/May | # of new listings | % chg |
| 1999 | 4,771/4,800 | flat |
| 2000 | 4,386/4,878 | +11% |
| 2001 | 5,133/5,209 | +1% |
| 2002 | 4,601/4,617 | flat |
| 2003 | 4,925/4,936 | flat |
| 2004 | 5,242/6,141 | +15% |
| 2005 | 6,533/6,639 | +2% |
| 2006 | 7,084/8.129 | +15% |
| 2007 | 6,687/7,003 | +5% |
| 2008 | 6,149/5,724 | -7% |
| 2009 | 4,554/4,428 | -3% |
| 2010 | 5,537/4,629 | -16% |
Yes, there is still a day left in this month, but when the May, 2010 listings are around the lowest of any in the last eleven years, it’s not a flood. But are the homes priced to sell, or priced to sit?
Housingtracker.net publishes the monthly average inventory of houses and condos back to 2007. The change in inventory between January and May can give us a feel for the accuracy in pricing – is the supply of active listings growing, or shrinking?
| Avg Inventory | January | May | % chg |
| 2007 | 14,898 | 18,505 | +24% |
| 2008 | 17,469 | 18,557 | +6% |
| 2009 | 14,551 | 11,994 | -18% |
| 2010 | 11,884 | 15,127 | +27% |
It was frenzy-like last spring, but this year is a different story. The plus-27% increase this year shows the exuberance of sellers’ pricing – we’re seeing some of the worst list-pricing in history, relative to actual market values.
It might be nice to see inventory versus inventory in months.
Lowest inventory in 10 years in SD…
All the liberals that think stalling foreclosures and letting people live in houses for free is fixing a problem are mistaken. You’re creating a group of young angry and/or bitter people that are forced out of the market because of government actions.
Lowest inventory in 10 years?
Only the S~H~A~D~O~W knows.
I do not think you can point to only one party for the current situation. It is government that is out of control on both sides.
Agreed Daniel not right to blame one side. Furthermore (and both sides are guilty) all of this finger pointing has caused a greater divide–we should now be called the UnUnited States–really sad.
I’m amazed at how many homes in NCC are listed at or above what the sellers paid in ’05 or ’06. It’s like they think the housing bubble is only for subprime/lower-end markets. Like since they have (had) more money than others, they’re simply smarter and therefore couldn’t possibly have made a bad investment decision.
Aren’t we seeing the market version of “make me move” going on here?
The Blur is 100% correct, the attitude is “I’m smarter, I could not have possibly made a fiscal blunder and bought at the wrong time, my house is worth more simply because I BOUGHT IT”
I know that sounds biter, but it is the exact attitude I see in the market right now all along NCC.
Whether that is emanating strictly from the sellers or it’s Realtors enforcing the thinking for the sake of “getting a listing” I don’t know, but it is definitely prevalent up and down the coastal corridor.
I think the crazy pricing is a combo of many things.
1. Sellers really are irrational
2. Sellers have either taken $$$ out of their house or have a bunch of debt they need to cover before selling not allowing them to sell at the market price.
3. Realtors are trying their best to price the market up.
4. Banks aren’t foreclosing allowing sellers to sit on wishing prices
5. Buyers have been waiting on the wings saving up $$$ allowing those that can’t wait any longer to take the plunge even if it doesn’t make sense.
6. When prices were crazy buyers were pushed to the outskirts. Now those same buyers are all starting to focus on the better parts of town creating more competition and pushing up prices.
How much of this years decline in listing is due to the free government cheese programs. Weren’t a lot of people scurrying to get under contract before the end of April?