Rob Dawg left this on CR:
This slow decline in the inventory is especially concerning with the large reported inventory and 8.0 months of supply in March – well above normal. – CR
“Inventory” c.2010 is not inventory c.2007. There are so many new considerations I’m not sure 8.0 months means what it used to mean.
• shadow inventory
• 2 minute MLS listings
• the return of pocket listings
• permanently on market second houses
• extended escrows for short sales
• double counting flipsThere are surely more.
He also was the guy who said all previous assumptions don’t apply, which is more on the same theme – today’s market is unrecognizable when comparing to historical norms.
What are other curveballs we can add to the same list?
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Realtors ignoring the rules/laws, and no enforcement anywhere.
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Qualifying for a mortgage is tough, with down pmts required.
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Fewer comps to help guide valuations.
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Appraisals being done by people who are strangers to the area.
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Sellers who are greatly motivated to NOT sell.
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Defaulters lasting months or years with little threat of foreclosure.
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Banks under no pressure to foreclose.
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Flippers making six-figure profits (or more) regularly.
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Government spending trillions with little obvious impact.
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Unemployment/economy having little obvious impact on sales.
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Millions of short sales with no rules/regulations/enforcement.
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No big public protest.
For those of you who are repulsed by this list, I salute you. If there is a big protest, let’s join in – I’ll be the guy in front, looking for a TV camera….
For those of you who are thinking about forging ahead with the search for a home to buy – in spite of the crazy, insane conditions, I empathize with you. I promise to help you at least find a house that will last you a long time – hopefully forever, so you can quit thinking about it!
For the record, here are Sandicor’s detached-home listings in North SD County Coastal – the total amount of new listings taken in the period Jan 1 to Apr 22nd (though Sandicor takes out the wihdrawns from previous years, add 100-200), plus the number of solds:
| Year | Total Taken | Closed/$psf |
| 2005 | ||
| 2006 | ||
| 2007 | ||
| 2008 | ||
| 2009 | ||
| 2010 |
In the peak frenzy years we had very low inventory stoked with exotic financing – an alluring combination. Today we have a low inventory count combined with what seems to be lower pricing, which helps compensate the buyers for the tougher financing available. But today’s decision-making is complicated by a third component – frustration with interpreting the crazy conditions mentioned above. Buyers want to buy just so they can quit thinking about it, and move on with life.
Frankly, I just don’t think about buying right now.
p.s.: Doesn’t mean I can’t look!
Jim,
Check out the $20,000,000 house in BONSALL!
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/31257-Via-Maria-Elena-Bonsall-CA-92003/16574392_zpid/
From the website:
258 Acre beautiful breeding & horse racing training facility with 11,630′ Weir Bros.Main Residence, 3,766′ 2nd home and 2,150′ 3rd home, 6 guest houses, 2 apts, 4 barns (1 Weir), 92 stalls,3/4 mile race track, citrus & avocado groves, botanical gardens, gorgeous views! Priced for immediate sale!
….
Wow! $20,000,000 in Bonsall?! You should check it out….it’s huge!
Thanks for posting this Jim. Even if it doesn’t change what’s going on it helps that you understand and acknowledge it.
As a buyer if I’m going to be forced to get screwed I’d at least like to know how I’m getting screwed.
The “there’s never been a better time to buy” numbnuts can take a flying leap.
“The “there’s never been a better time to buy” numbnuts can take a flying leap.”
Amen to that!!!
As a buyer it seems like the choices are mostly distressed stuff that is very difficult to actually close on (banks take forever, sellers who don’t really want to sell so you can never actually see the property, etc.) and stuff that’s priced like the last four years never happened. The very few well priced, high quality equity sales go fast, with multiple bids by well qualified buyers. It seems like the effect is that the available inventory is really quite small. I don’t know if that qualifies as a seller’s market exactly, but it sure ain’t no buyer’s market.
Still too much risk for me in the market for my blood. Additionally, I don’t know if I will be in San Diego in 5 years. My lease is up in July and I am looking for a new rental house in North County coastal. It is always tough to find a nice house that is not a dump despite my perfect credit and lack of pets.
So I continue to wait.
Is it just me that sees a brown background? I can’t read black on brown.
I’m getting the brown background too. It’s not just you, justme. Only on this post, though. Strange . . .
I think the problem is a table without a close tag – you need to close your table with a
sorry, should be a at the end of the table in your html – as it is, you have a (notice the missing slash)
sorry for the comment mess – wordpress is stripping out my html – email me if you want me to explain how to fix it.
Amen to your Carlin post, Chuck. It’s upsetting to live in a world where fraud and graft are rewarded (and encouraged!) over hard work and responsible decisions.