Rob Dawg left this on CR:
This slow decline in the inventory is especially concerning with the large reported inventory and 8.0 months of supply in March – well above normal. – CR
“Inventory” c.2010 is not inventory c.2007. There are so many new considerations I’m not sure 8.0 months means what it used to mean.
• shadow inventory
• 2 minute MLS listings
• the return of pocket listings
• permanently on market second houses
• extended escrows for short sales
• double counting flips
There are surely more.
He also was the guy who said all previous assumptions don’t apply, which is more on the same theme – today’s market is unrecognizable when comparing to historical norms.
What are other curveballs we can add to the same list?
Realtors ignoring the rules/laws, and no enforcement anywhere.
Qualifying for a mortgage is tough, with down pmts required.
Fewer comps to help guide valuations.
Appraisals being done by people who are strangers to the area.
Sellers who are greatly motivated to NOT sell.
Defaulters lasting months or years with little threat of foreclosure.
Banks under no pressure to foreclose.
Flippers making six-figure profits (or more) regularly.
Government spending trillions with little obvious impact.
Unemployment/economy having little obvious impact on sales.
Millions of short sales with no rules/regulations/enforcement.
No big public protest.
For those of you who are repulsed by this list, I salute you. If there is a big protest, let’s join in – I’ll be the guy in front, looking for a TV camera….
For those of you who are thinking about forging ahead with the search for a home to buy – in spite of the crazy, insane conditions, I empathize with you. I promise to help you at least find a house that will last you a long time – hopefully forever, so you can quit thinking about it!
For the record, here are Sandicor’s detached-home listings in North SD County Coastal – the total amount of new listings taken in the period Jan 1 to Apr 22nd (though Sandicor takes out the wihdrawns from previous years, add 100-200), plus the number of solds:
In the peak frenzy years we had very low inventory stoked with exotic financing – an alluring combination. Today we have a low inventory count combined with what seems to be lower pricing, which helps compensate the buyers for the tougher financing available. But today’s decision-making is complicated by a third component – frustration with interpreting the crazy conditions mentioned above. Buyers want to buy just so they can quit thinking about it, and move on with life.