In order to track the bank-owned inventory trends, we have followed the same four REO agents over the last couple of years.
With 7,293 properties on the NOD list, and 9,885 on the NOTS auction list in San Diego County, you’d think that the REO listing specialists would be rocking with business, right?
Here are their listings:
Date | Actives | Pendings |
March 13, 2008 | ||
March 9, 2009 | ||
March 27, 2010 |
They aren’t having any trouble selling the few listings they have, you’d think that the banks would notice and push a few more through the system during the government double-cheese era. Instead, the foreclosure flood as been turned down to a trickle – they have 77% fewer REO listings today than they had two years ago. They are probably thinking about laying off staff!
Don’t worry, Jim…this foreclosure fiasco will last awhile, probably decades. We’re in the midst of an economic reset and one of the requirements for that, is that everyone — okay, *almost* everyone — take a haircut (pay cut). We’ll only cut services and raise taxes so much before there’s a full-blown mutiny in this country and that’s when the outcry for haircuts really gets going. Looking forward, the only people insulated from this are those who own their homes outright, but they won’t escape reductions in valuations. Make no mistake, prices will continue to recede during this protracted event despite the will (and wants) of those wishing to “get back to normal”. It still gets back to one pesky word:
un?sus?tain?a?ble: unable to continue at the same rate or in the same way
The real reason for the push to a “green” economy in the US is due to our lack of manufacturing capability (they’re off-shored) and this is supposed to be a surrogate. Problem is, living green isn’t for those struggling to make ends meet — your typical paycheck to paycheck consumer — it’s for those with disposable income. Ecology does however make an interesting equities play in the short-term.
The running of the bulls lasted for decades…now the economy will hibernate like a bear. The successful adapt to change.
Don’t these people listen to the media ???
I mean they have been saying housing is falling off a cliff again all week,
But listening to two of my buddies up in the L.A. area who lost out on bidding wars they are kind of scratching their heads and saying What ?????
Maybe, just maybe it’s a lack of inventory causing the low numbers ???
Maybe they know something we don’t though.
If we don’t let “homeowners” live for free, how do we ever expect them to pay the mortgage?
Geez people it’s so simple…
“77% fewer REO listings today than they had two years ago”
Not sure about SD, but 2 years ago the opening bids at trustee sales were ridiculous 99% of the time in OC. It is a little better now to where more third parties are ending up with the properties. I kind of doubt it makes up for the entire 77% difference, but it might explain it partially.
Extend and pretend. How far down the road can they kick the can?
I don’t know who switches the master control switch to send the stock market up and and throws the cloak over the housing situation, but that is one powerful person or group!
The stock market is being rigged by insiders.As soon as the mom and pops start buying time to get out.You make money in stocks by buying low and seling high.Buying now would be disastrous.
There are no foreclosures because the banks are not foreclosing.People are living rent free why the banks hope the market comes back as they restrict supply.there are millions of homeowners in this country not paying their mortgage.the banks are killing time with short sales.as time goes on the govt will keep giving incentives to buy a home.The longer they can prolong this mess the better it will be for the banks.
How many loans have the banks not even started foreclosures.
monthly data from lpsucs.com
Missed payments 24 months 246,974-
Not foreclosed 33,723
Missed payments 18 months 616,266
not foreclosed 109,769
Missed payments 12 months 1,818,291
not foreclosed 300,891
Missed payments 6 months 2,258,179
not foreclosed 711,214
I think there is still a little problem in the housing market. I still have been writing on this site. That i am waiting for option arm to explode in North County. I have also posted how many people in this county have family income over $200,000 to afford all the houses that are for sale over one million dollars. Almost all have that have the income living in Pt. Loma, Mission Hills, La Jolla, Del Mar have already own their homes. So who are the option arm going to sell too.
Thanks worm for more vague data intended to scare people. My wife and kids appreciate you doing your best to undermine my ability to provide for them.
P.S. This is not a public forum, this is my website intended to educate people on what’s really happening in the real estate resale market. You are talking about what’s not happening.
When/if the time comes that those overencumbered or underemployed can’t/won’t afford their higher-end homes, and get real on price, you and I will be very grateful that we can get on with reality. But in the meantime I’d prefer to discuss the tangible.
P.S. I let a lot of your comments go before saying something.
Squeezing in where I probably am not welcome, but for those of us who are still sitting on the sidelines, those numbers (of people not paying) are extremely important. It is very relevant information that should be considered before making one of the biggest purchases most people will make in their lives.
Will the govt/PTB be able to stem the tide? Perhaps, but we do need to be fully informed of the risks that too many people are trying to hide from current buyers.
That being said, some areas are near enough to the bottom that people can safely buy in if they intend to buy a HOME and live there for the long term. Others will willingly take on the risk of falling prices in order to get things over with; but we DO need full transparency, IMHO.
I am fine with relevant information.
The negative real estate news is on the front page of every newspaper in the western world, every day. All the big media outlets take turns describing how the sky will be falling any minute.
There are also 1,000s of blogs covering every negative fact or suspicion, every day.
Why I take it personal is because people who know me off-line are some of the worst offenders. You know this is my place of business where I’m trying to discuss the specific relevent facts of our local market so those who want to engage, can do so with more data.
It bugs me when my friends come in here and want to spew the broad general negativity. Why insist on doing it here? It seems that you want to disrupt my business, which I’ll take for a while, but I’m going to stand up and object on occasion.
There’s a chance I’ll be watching a Laker playoff game (at least there was) with worm, and what am I supposed to do? Tell him thanks for dumping all that negative stuff in my place of business, I really appreciate it? I spend a lot of time working to make this blog a resource, and I take it very personal when people keep coming here repeatedly to disrupt.
In worm’s data today he doesn’t say which 2 million people have missed 6 months payments, is it SoCal? California? USA? South Mission Beach? Readers who take a quick glance will be alarmed, and not give homebuying another thought. It could be somebody who I spent 6-12 months engaging here who might just be feeling like they were learning something, and boom, off they go.
Waiting for the option arms to explode? How many times have we covered that here? To keep bringing it up just incites panic among my potential clients, because nobody has the answer and worm knows that better than just about anyone else.
As you know, Jim, many of us long-time bears already know and understand the facts and are still willing to make offers, even in this market.
I don’t think the “negativity” is slowing most people down. You and I have seen the buying frenzy out there. For those who would be disuaded from buying, perhaps it’s best that they not buy now. I’m sure they’ll still appreciate the fact that they got good, honest information from your blog and will reward you with their business at a later time.
Taking it off-line…