My mother has been here the last couple of days, and we’re off to the airport today. Considering that she lost her husband of 51 years in January, I’m glad to report that she’s in good spirits!
Thanks to Jeeman for carrying the blog over the weekend – let’s expand on a few of his highlights:
1. He only made two offers. Finding a seller and listing agent willing to entertain a lowball offer, let alone make a deal, is rare around the more-elite areas. The combination of lower motivation and stronger kool-aid in the coastal region usually means you’ll have to make several offers before getting an audience.
2. He was willing to buy an ‘updater’. To improve your chances of getting a ‘deal’, be willing to compromise on other aspects. If you are dead-set on stealing a home in perfect condition in a great location, don’t be surprised if other frustrated buyers out-bid you.
3. He was prepared. He had been reading blogs for years, and had several formulas to use when evaluating price/value. When his moment came to buy or not buy, he was comfortable with his price decision because he knew exactly where he stood historically.
4. The deal was “good-enough”. He was willing to buy even though he thought prices in general would still be trending downward. His focus was on this specific deal being right.
5. He had guts. I don’t think many of today’s buyers feel like they have all the answers before they make an offer, or even after they close. There will always be uncertainties to live with, you’ll never have all the answers – heck, you won’t know all the questions until you have lived there a while.
6. He didn’t feel pressured to buy. There will be plenty of opportunity over the next few years, don’t listen to those who try to talk up the market.
Stats for North SD County Coastal detached homes sold between Jan. 1st and March 21st:
| Year | Sales | $$/sf | DOM |
| 2001 | 509 | $282/sf | 51 |
| 2002 | 718 | $287/sf | 77 |
| 2003 | 624 | $337/sf | 61 |
| 2004 | 590 | $415/sf | 55 |
| 2005 | 570 | $462/sf | 62 |
| 2006 | 506 | $495/sf | 65 |
| 2007 | 474 | $447/sf | 78 |
| 2008 | 359 | $454/sf | 75 |
| 2009 | 296 | $394/sf | 80 |
| 2010 | 386 | $377/sf | 78 |
Sales are a leading indicator, but with the government bailout in full swing, we won’t know for months if any “improvement” is real or imagined – hang in there, and keep looking!
Good insights but the “improvement” is real. Like it or not things are improving. Also, things got out of control in 2004, massive recession for the past 4 years in real estate, now we’re back to better than 2003.
If the state extends the $10K tax break for home buyers we’ll see more people jump in. Should be a decent year for sellers.
It’s good to have Mozart back.
Great stats and analysis there, Jim. Looks like another 10% down brings us to 2003 pricing. If the government gets out of the way even a little bit, I think that’s a lock. But as Jeeman and OC Renter proved, those deals are already out there.
What I’m not seeing are deals with decent ocean views.
We’re now in our reo “money-pit” almost a year and a half. It sure hasn’t turned out the way we expected, but we love it, the area & haven’t regretted our decision for a minute.
If you’re a serious buyer (not a flipper), do yourself a favor: reread Jeeman’s & jtr’s 6 recommendations until you come to terms with them. They’re the best summary of what’s needed these days to even the odds as I can think of (in hindsight of course.) I believe in them so much I’ll add, if you’re comfortable with only 5 of the 6 – you’re not ready. That’s especially true for the 2nd sentence of #5.
Like it or not things are improving.
Short term phenomenon. Regardless, welcome back Mozart.
Thanks for coming around again Mozart!
The market sure is percolating these days – a drive-by of the new listing on Hymettus saw seven cars out front, with people gawking, and I’ve written eight offers in the last 24 hours.
JtR said, “The market sure is percolating these days – a drive-by of the new listing on Hymettus saw seven cars out front, with people gawking, and I’ve written eight offers in the last 24 hours.”
Hi Jim, I’m interested in more of your observations. Is there a common theme to the properties that are getting offers? Are offers closing as sales? Are all of these properties priced well? REOs or SS, or regular sales?
Thanks.
You say “He had been reading blogs for years, and had several formulas to use when evaluating price/value. ”
What are these formulas?