What can we expect for 2010? Let’s review the stats (2009 numbers are up-to-this-morning):

SD County Det. 2007 2008 2009
Total listings, year 46,056 42,567 33,573
Total closings, year 15,713 19,103 21,594
4Q Closings 2,965 5,450 4,891
4Q $$-per-sf $329/sf $233/sf $244/sf
4Q SP:LP 95% 98% 100%
4Q Avg. DOM 71 62 58

Even though we’ve had 20% fewer listings this year, detached closed sales have already surpassed last year’s total. It looks like the intensity is rising, but is it? We saw on video a bunch of high-enders get marked pending recently, has the whole market been cooking?

Here are the number of detached homes that were marked pending each month:


This month’s decline of new pendings could have been due to buyers rushing to buy in the previous months due to the tax credit, or just sheer exhaustion of seeing few deals and lots of junk all year.  Plus, 92% of this month’s new pendings are still pending, where most of the previous months have already closed.  The final tally for December is likely to be under 900.

While there’s been a flurry of activity since the first quarter of 2009, it looks like we lost some momentum right here at the end.  But if there were more good homes for sale at attractive prices, sales would be better.  The latest tsunami warning from B of A is to expect an upsurge in REO listings around April 1st, which will likely be another cruel April Fool’s Day joke. As long as the inventory is restrained, the market’s urgency is likely to stay like we’ve been seeing it – full of frustration and anxiety!

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