Written by Jim the Realtor

October 22, 2009

What’s the common denominator amongst today’s buyers?

29 Comments

  1. shadash

    Risk and reward do ride the same elevator. I agree with you 100%.

    But…

    “Nothing sways the stupid more than arguments they can’t understand”

  2. doughboy

    Jim,

    Could have stopped by for a cup of coffee!

    Nice foreclosure right by the middle school just went on the market last week in Lions Gate. Gated, 3400 sq ft. 6 years old masonry FLWright’esque construction, 1/2 acre. 570k. Move in ready, high end spec home, quiet, valley view. Its on my 30 minute running loop out here in the country. I usually see about 3 cars on my run, sometimes none. And I run on the roads! Country living!

  3. UCgal

    The buyer had a good instinct. That house is worth what he paid. I assume both units are single story. Having the legal/permitted back unit can mean rental income or extended family can live there (older parents or kids that won’t quite leave the nest.)

    The 2006 price… that was insane.

  4. chrisanthemama

    @ shadash:

    Good quote, and here’s another:

    “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it.”
    –Upton Sinclair

  5. chrisL

    That’s really stupid. Why would you buy something without seeing it first? Since we’re posting quotes, mines going to be from the movie UHF:

    Kuni: or you can go for what’s in the box that Hiro-San is bringing down the aisle right now! What’s it gonna be?
    [Phyllis Weaver has difficulty in choosing as the audience point to the box]
    Phyllis Weaver: I’ll take the box. The box!
    [applause]
    Kuni: You took the box? Let’s see what’s in the box!
    [Hiro-san opens the box; the audience gasps. There is a silence]
    Kuni: Nothing! Absolutely nothing! STUPID! You’re so STU-PIIIIIIIIIIID!

    This was the first thing that popped in my head. I know, it’s strange.

  6. clearfund

    “risk and reward ride the same elevator”…no way!!!!

    A very seasoned investor only purchases deals where the VAST majority of the risk is mitigated and removed. There is actually very little risk when you buy properly, have massive patience, don’t get into bidding wars, choose your markets with precision, etc.

    If you are hoping the market goes up to make you look smart then you are speculating, not investing. If the market goes down and you get burned then you are speculating, not investing. True investors really take on very little risk….the bulk of all these buyers are speculators.

    Rookies and the like actually believe they “WIN” a property by paying more than anyone else…huh?? really???

    The only deals that make sense are 1) well below replacement costs of the improvements alone (not dirt), 2) cash flow at a strong yield above 8% on day one, and 3) have been purchased w/o competition as an ‘off market’ transaction due to motivated sellers….bidding up a property is a fools game.

    If it doesn’t fit these types of criteria, modifed for your personal needs of course, then don’t do it.

    I guarantee soemone will say “but san diego real estate does not cash flow, it appreciates…” Why invest your $$ in a poor investment just because it is ‘local’..really?

    sorry for the diatribe, but hearing the words “winner” at an auction sets me off as it is such an ‘anti-buyer’ structure from the get go.

  7. Jim the Realtor

    Thanks clearfund for the clarification.

    Can you do us a favor?

    Can you start a blog and lay out all the properties you see that fit that description?

  8. Local Boy

    Clearfund–If it is the right property and it meets your criteria, why not bid it up until it the point it no longer meets your criteria. It the late 90’s, early 2000’s we built a portolio of investment properties that met our criteria(the main one–it will pay for itself on a 15 year note). Looking back nearly every property was a bidding situation, above initial asking price.

  9. Erica Douglass

    @clearfund et. al.: I haven’t seen the numbers so I can put them in my own cash flow spreadsheet, but at 304K in that area my feeling is that it would cash flow right away. The buyer knew Vista well and it sounds to me like he got a good deal.

    I ran the numbers (and I have pretty strict numbers) on several foreclosure properties back in ’08 in the East Bay (Bay Area) and many properties cash flowed. Not surprisingly, they all sold. Once the “free gov’t money” spigot turns off, you may find more of those here in San Diego, too.

    -Erica

  10. JordanT

    I don’t understand the idea that paying over list is necessarily a bad thing or that bidding over everyone else is necessarily a bad thing either. They both can be, but Jim has stated before that there is resistance for buyers to bid 10% over list. If they list it at -15% of market value, and you bid it up to 12% over list that would be a good deal in the end.

  11. Anonymous

    “Remember, risk and reward share the same elevator. … “Nice and slow. STOP! (JtR)

    *Chuckle* Wow, Jim! You really surprised me with those four words (and actions) the last few seconds of your video. You made a perfect and controlled stop. No California roll for you!

    About five minutes ago, my black fur-face kitty let me know by her plaintive meows that she was ready to go explore outside. How could this be possibly relevant to real estate? Let me explain.

    We rescued “Blacks” back in 1996, when she was abandoned in a park and eating watermelon rinds just trying to survive. A local–who came to that park every day with her daughter–told me she had been dumped there three weeks before. Yes, we first came to the Oregon Rogue River Valley for some family rafting fun, but somehow when we arrived back home in Bend, our family numbered five instead of four.

    Widowhood has taught me many important lessons. And one of them is how quickly life can change when you least expect it. I rescued our kitty, but in reality (especially since 2004), I realize she rescued me.

    So each time I let her outside I say: “You stay safe out there, lady!” (She loves to cross our not-so busy street to explore the neighbor’s yard.)I say that ‘cuz I’ve learned that life can throw you a curve ball at the most unexpected times.

    Before our kids arrived, my late husband and I lost our first baby, “Oreo Kitty”, when she crossed a busy street at around 5 PM one night. My husband was the first one to find her. It was hard to believe she was dead as she looked perfect. (She must have suffered severe internal injuries). I still remember the date: 3/30/1987.

    Fast forward to today. “Blacks” really is a member of our family and none of us can imagine our lives without her. (*Chuckle* she’s at my office window now after only a few minutes outside.) Even though she’s at least 14-15 years old, she delights in galloping down our hardwood floors in the hallway. Yep, there’s no other word to describe her speed but gallop.

    And it’s really no different with you, Jim. I’m pokin’ you in your ribs, doncha know?–but seriously, I’m thrilled you’re the type of guy who actually takes your readers’ comments to heart. I’m not the only one who’s been concerned with your famous no-stops at stop signs.

    Ya see, we want you to stick around. What would we all do in Real Estate Land without you? I shudder to think. We’d be left with wanna-be agents who want to be like JtR but fall ridiculously short and fail to deliver. They may not understand the value of customer service or the fact that buyers and sellers alike just want the “truth”. But you do!

    With that truth transparent, we’re hopefully smart enough to make the best decision for us and our families in what may be the biggest financial transaction of our lives.

    So, Jim, I say the exact message I tell my cat (with a twist): You stay safe out there, you REAL agent! Puh-leeze keep stoppin’ at those big red octagons that actually proclaim: STOP!

    And somehow I think your beloved wife, Donna, and your kids are happy I took the time to write this long message to you today. Just my two cents…

  12. worm

    Not a real estate question. You can delete Jim.

    How safe are those curved roads on a Friday or Saturday night with drunk drivers? I would never live in an area with those type roads.

  13. sdnerd

    ‘Rookies and the like actually believe they “WIN” a property by paying more than anyone else…huh?? really???’

    Is Jonathan Mann a rookie? He is the highest bidder at a very large number of public auctions.

    How about all the professional car auction, estate sale, etc people?

    Ever buy something at a garage sale for fractions of cents on the dollar to what it’s actually worth? Etc. Right place, right time, dumb luck, etc.

    I think you can remove the majority of risk, and still ‘be the highest bidder’.

    That’s not to say you can’t also take on very large amounts of risk as well. 🙂

    (Jim, I’m surprised your car can fit so many back seat drivers in it. How do you get them all in there?)

  14. osidebuyer

    looks like a great investment. not too much risk at the auction if there is a contingency clause like Jim mentioned. What would a two bedroom detached unit like that rent for in that area? doughboy?

  15. Old timer

    Real estate brokers seem to be slightly underpricing REO listings creating a feeding frenzy and multiple offers. In doing so they often find an uninformed buyer often willing to overpay. Years past, average time to sell a home was about 60 days, now 24 hours- this isn’t normal. Headlines are helping to fuel the frenzy. The market needs to normalize or risk a new bubble. Equilibrium in markets may only occur when interest rates tick up…

  16. JordanT

    Years past, average time to sell a home was about 60 days, now 24 hours

    Why would it take 60 days to sell a well priced house? With the internet buyers are notified immediately about new properties and have done their research already. Electronic filling out of documents makes it very easy to make offers and submit offers as well. Considering most sellers are highly motivated to sell quickly it leads to short market times.

  17. Downturn

    Number one rule for auctions:

    If the folks running it are wearing tuxedos, run for the door!

  18. vegas nrba

    “Real estate brokers seem to be slightly underpricing REO listings creating a feeding frenzy and multiple offers.”

    Old timer, REO Brokers do not price the listings. We do submit a BPO (brokers price opinion) to the banks. Most banks will also get a 2nd BPO done by another agent as well as a Full Appraisal done by a licensed appraiser. Then they will determine pricing as they see fit or as the original investor sees fit.

    Over the past 2 years :
    we sometimes have the homes priced at our bpo value.

    Sometimes way under our bpo value.

    Sometimes way over our bpo value.

    It is a crapshoot and out of our hands most times.

    also as far as our bpo values are concerned: They usually ask us to give several values:

    these values are,

    “as is” 90-120 day sale price
    “as is” quick sale price (to sell in under 30 days)
    “repaired” 90-120 day sales price.

    sometimes they will make repairs , sometimes they wont.

  19. doughboy

    Worm,

    I don’t think you are safe anywhere anymore if your number is up. I feel safer on smaller roads that you cannot get the car up to 60 MPH and stay on the road than I do on El Camino Real or Palomar Airport road for example with 10x the traffic going too fast and people are stressed to the max. I find people out here in the rural areas have taken a step back off the speed of life’s gas pedal! You can have a conversation with neighbors in rural areas that goes beyond “upgrades and granite counters”.

  20. doughboy

    osidebuyer

    I rent my 1 BR single story guest house that is 800 sq ft for $1,100.00 a month. That 2 BR maybe $1,500.00 a month I’m guessing…when I rode my bike by this home today on Foothill on my way to work the home behind looks like it has its own gravel access road for parking alongside the front home on the property. Rent them both out for 1500 hundy a month and you are looking pretty good eh??!!

  21. pepsi

    Jim encourage buyer to submit multiple offers, but my question is, if there are 2 or more offers got accepted at the same time, and you need just one house, how do you get your earned money deposit back ?
    I am not saying submitting multiple offers suggestion is wrong (I am doing it now), I just need to know if there is a good chance that we are not going to see one of our deposit back.

    Can you help ?

    thanks!

  22. Jim the Realtor

    pepsi,

    They shouldn’t cash your check until three days after acceptance, cancel before they do! Your realtor should be holding them, right?

    Making more than one offer at the same time is not for amateurs, make sure your agent is very comfortable and confident about doing it.

  23. Jim the Realtor

    On the auctions and tuxedos.

    It’s in the program that the company reserves the right to make their own bids, and they do.

    The last one I attended I sat in the front and looked back, that way I could only hear the auctioneer and watched the hands in the crowd, and not the antics on stage.

    The auctioneer made about a third of the bids himself, with nobody raising their hand. If he ends up the winner, the property rotates back into the lineup 20-30 minutes later.

    The tuxedo guys are running around like monkeys throughout the crowd, trying to whip up a frenzy too, but it’s the auctioneer who is the one to watch/listen.

  24. Rob Dawg

    Imagine how much more along we’d be if somebody started auctioning off bank houses? I mean if travesties like what are being used now to bid/sell houses are producing occasional good results like this one then real open and honest auctions could take care of the market overhang in no time.

  25. JimB

    “then real open and honest auctions could take care of the market”

    Whoaa, markets are our masters exactly because they are no such beast. You’re gonna give the bearded guys in DC a bad name with talk like that.

  26. François Caron

    Slightly off-topic here.

    Jim, be careful! One of these days, a homeowner will come out of their house to show you “their little friend!”

    That’s when your videos will become viral. 🙂

    $304K on the house sight unseen? Not bad! Even though the buyer was familiar with the area, there was still an element of luck in the equation. It’s nice that it went well this time.

  27. Robert Boyer

    Jim, you wrote “…Can you start a blog and lay out all the properties you see that fit that description?”

    Try looking at http://www.FinestExpert.com – the cashflow search engine. It will allow you to set your financial search criteria in addition to the normal property search characteristics. It is probably the closest thing you will ever find that begins to respond to your previous comment.

  28. Blissful Ignoramus

    Love the full stop!

    Regarding risk and reward, I guess the point a lot of us make is that it would be nice to see less emphasis on those two factors. Some of us just want stability and a roof over our heads, not a get rich quick scheme.

  29. CA renter

    1. Agree with Rob Dawg about the auctions. Let’s move this along, already! 😉

    2. IMHO, that buyer didn’t really take on much risk. If we wanted to live in Vista, we’d probably be okay paying $304K for that place, depending on the condition. The Foothill area is our favorite part of Vista, as it’s a very beautiful place and we know a number of people who live around there. Nice homes, nice lots, and no HOAs/Mello-Roos in most cases.

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