Another youtube video tour around Carmel Valley looking at houses that sold in the first day or two of being on the market:
(stick around for the Q&A at the end)
Jim Klinge
Klinge Realty Group
Broker-Associate, Compass
Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home?
Contact Jim the Realtor!
- 682 S. Coast Hwy 101, Suite #110
Encinitas, CA 92024 - (858) 997-3801 call or text
- klingerealty@gmail.com
CA DRE #01527365, CA DRE #00873197
I think you hit it right on your first explanation; just like you said in your Tale of CV video: “…and I guarantee you, somebody’s spouse stood up and said I’m sick and tired of looking at houses . . . I’m buying a house today, you just pay whatever it takes to win.”
Several years of pent up demand, and large down payments.
There are a LOT of sharks in the water circling CV.
Are these people getting up from work and driving to check out the house the second it hits the MLS? Or have they already cased the neighborhood and are just waiting for one to show up?
Same day seems fast – you don’t even get to sleep on it!
I have to agree. Most of my friends who have bought houses in CV had huge downpayments via bank of Mom and Dad.
Only fools rush in.
I also agree with Jim’s assessment that people are buying out of frustration. Apparently, there’s a lot of spouses out there that believe buying a house is like buying a pair of shoes.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens after the school year starts. Bankruptcy court? Or divorce court? 🙂
Rats???
What happens when builders for all practical purposes stop building for three years ???
Sometimes I keep the garage door like that saw my two cats can get out genius 😉
$429,000 tops for a 2000 sq. ft.
You people in San Diego have more money than brains. BUBBLE all over again
Dont people in s. california like to eat rats?They are like caviar to some groups.
Looks like another round of speculators buying overpriced homes.
I am headed to sears to ask them how much longer they will be in business and why in the world did they merge with a dying kmart.I might get to kmart and walk around in my walmart vest w/ yellow smiley face on it.I make a lot of friends over there.
They’ll lose money on every deal, but they’ll make up for it with volume.
It looks like the guy who runs foreclosureradar.com now deems a tsunami of REO coming onto the market as “unlikely”.
http://www.foreclosuretruth.com/blog/sean/waiting-catch-wave-surge-reo-listings-unlikely
I live (rent) in CV only so I can walk to work.
I would never buy here. Some of what goes on here is explainable. Other stuff is not.
Lots of imported scientists (India/China) that work at the local Biotech companies (multi generational households). Lot size is not ever a consideration to these people.
On top of that I know many “business” owners that live here that simply do not pay income taxes. They come from places were dodging taxes is common place.
My other observation is that the houses (those built post 2001) are crap quality.
If anyone wants to try to tackle the math on how many people can afford these upscale prices, here’s a link to the Census Bureau salary statistics for various occupations in the San Diego MSA. If you look at Management, Legal and higher level medical professionals along with a few other occupations, there really is the potential that a lot of households (assuming some have two higher level wage earners) could afford these prices.
Here’s a link to the HTML tables:
http://www.bls.gov/oes/2008/may/oes_41740.htm#b11-0000
And here’s a link to the spreadsheet downloads (this has way more detail than most people are going to want, but there is a lot of entertainment potential for numbers nerds 🙂 ):
http://www.bls.gov/oes/oes_dl.htm
And, of course, these only show income from wages, they don’t address investment income which would qualify additional people.
I’m not trying to get into whether the houses are worth it or not, I am just trying to get some data out there regarding how big the market might be for houses in this category since it has been the source of a lot of comments here.
Oops, that should say “Bureau of Labor Statistics,” not Census Bureau. Need…more…caffeine…now
Face it, the market is hot. Carmel Valley even though it is generic tract housing has a great location.
Nobody is building new product and at best nothing will be built for 2-3 years. There’s possible move-ups happening now.
I for one am, (am I the only one?), very, very pleased to see this turnaround.
The powerlines at around the 5 minute mark were epic. The rubber stamp of approval.
I am currently looking for a place in CV and it is frustrating that the decent houses are getting scooped up fast. Some of them seem like they are worth close to asking, but most seem to need 50-100K worth of work, putting them out of my price range. Any house that is in decent condition, in a good location, and is priced well (of course, that is a relative term) seems to have multiple offers on it within the first week. The ones that sit don’t seem to be in any worse condition, they are just overpriced.
These houses may be priced high, but they certainly are not unaffordable. With 20% down on a 5.5% interest only loan, your PITI plus HOA and Mello Roos would be right around $4,000 a month on an 800k purchase. Credit back the tax benefits, and you’re talking about a $3,000 a month cost to own which is probably pretty close to the cost of renting.
Of course it’s finding the 20% down payment that is the hard part.
The monthly payment on $640K at 5.5% is $3633. Taxes, HOA, Mello Roos, etc will probably add another $1,000.
If your income is above $175K (likely to justify this purhchase) the AMT comes into affects and limits (or potentially eliminates) any benefit of these tax deductions. If you are unemployed or avoid taxes as a business owner this is also not a benefit.
Why even bother “owning” with an interest only loan? You might as well rent and leave the risk behind. Have we not learned anything from the bubble?
What about the opportunity cost? That 20% down payment, even if it comes from the parents, could certainly be used elsewhere.
By the way, I lived in CV (rented) for about two years. The townhouse we rented was a total disaster from a structural standpoint. The appliances needed fixing every other month. The sink leaked, etc — you get the picture.
With a young family, there are frequent trips to Wal-Mart and costco (mainly for diapers, etc.) and those are far away and too inconvenient, when you factor in the traffic. The comment about multi-generational families stuffed into about 1800 ft^2 is true. In CV, space is tight. The community center is right next to an apartment complex, so it is pretty busy with kids wandering around with nothing to do. The problem is that the classes offered at the community center are way too expensive for those kids.
Bottom line: these prices are still way too high.
If as many people are willing to pay x dollars for something as the size of the supply of that something, that something is worth x dollars. Doesn’t matter what it is or whether other people (like readers of this blog) think it’s worth it.
That is, the prices are not way too high, even you and I wouldn’t pay that much-other people clearly will.
@blur, what risk? If you think the market is at its pricing bottom, you get an intereest only loan, and when the markey is up, you sell and pocket the difference. If it goes down, you walk away and the bank eats the loss. Heads I win, tails you lose.
The real question is why a bank would give anyone an interest only loan right now.
Yes, CV homes are worth what people pay for them… at that moment in time. Just as they were in 2005.
I’d say most of those here that consider CV home values still too high (as do I) are looking at their true value devoid of bubble and/or overt government interference, and although their true value can be delayed it ultimately cannot be denied.
Buffet’s statement about stocks holds here as well: “In the short term the market is a popularity contest; in the long term it is a weighing machine”.
If it goes down, you walk away and the bank eats the loss. Heads I win, tails you lose.
I’d say a 20% down payment on a $800K house is a pretty big loss. Even if your parents paid for it, they’d be pretty pissed you walked away from a house they bought for you.
Geoptf
I do not agree with knocking CV like many here do. I actually think Pardee makes a good home and the location is great.
That being said, if you are using government money and looser government underwriting criteria (see FHA) the item might not be worth that price without the large subsidy kicking in.
This is important since the government just realized the third largest FHA broker (Taylor Bean) was passing them many fraudulent loans. In other words will it be worth “X” when the fraud (subsidy) is removed.
All this discussion of cost and “true value” is a bit meaningless. I worked in commercial land appraisals for a few years, no matter what method I used, income, HBU, etc. etc.
The best definition is one spoken by the US supreme court on a landmark case about the best measure of value, nearly a century ago:
“The measure of what something is worth is what another party is willing and able to pay for it at that time”
Its so simple, but yet so complete. In the very truest sense, CV homes were worth more in 2005 because (thanks to liar loans) they were able to pay for them.
Its also true that in 2009 that now that the liar loans are gone, the value is set by those “willing and able to pay for it”.
Go watch an art auction sometime. Someone pays $40,000 for a faberge egg and you sit there and say, “thats crap I would never pay that much – those people are idiots”
Thats right – thats because you dont make the market the buyers do. At the end of the day, if the buyers are willing to pay more than you are, you clearly arent part of that market.
‘Go watch an art auction sometime. Someone pays $40,000 for a faberge egg and you sit there and say, “thats crap I would never pay that much – those people are idiots”’
Try and get a taxpayer-backed loan to fund that transaction.
Frustration comes from the fact that people in power are using my money to make goods less affordable for me.
Just ask shadash how he feels about it.
LV –
AMT does not impact deductability of primary mortgage interest, which is the dominant component of the tax deduction.
Only the property tax is not deductible under AMT. This is offset somewhat by the fact that there is a large exemption in the AMT calculation.
When I run the numbers for couples making 175-250K or so and assume mortgages in the 650-800K range it turns out that AMT is a minor impact.
For those with smaller mortgages and/or higher incomes, AMT is more likely to come into play.
Haha, touche RB!
Anecdotally, I rent in CV. My 2,800 sqft house was built in ’03 and it’s crap; doors falling off hinges, windows not closing properly, cupboards opening in wrong directions, etc. It’s obvious the builder put these things up as fast as people could get their interest only loans approved.
Nice one, Blur.
I’ll say that I would never own or rent or maybe even drive by this neighborhood. Not becaue the houses may be made poorly, but because it has the look I hate most: Improper house to lot size ratio.
We are fixated on CV because we currently rent there and the commute to UTC is ideal, the schools are great, and it is close to the coast. We are OK with paying the premium to live there…location, location, location, right? Can anyone suggest an alternative that has all of those criteria for the same or lower price?
Regarding the price in CV:
If you think a 1100sqf, 1970 house in Mira Mesa , asking for $300K is reasonable, then
the 1995 1500sqf in MM asking for $380-420K should also be reasonable.
Then we can go to 4S ranch, 1800sft, year 2000 house with better school, shouldn’t they go for $470K ? or 2000 sqf for $500 to 530K.
So on and so forth, and you would see why CV, with the best school in the county, and close toe work, can ask for those prices.
That being said, for Single family houses, I do think the 600K – 850K in CV is a little too hot. If you look into $900K and up, I think the price is more reasonable.
Try and get a taxpayer-backed loan to fund that transaction.
Frustration comes from the fact that people in power are using my money to make goods less affordable for me.
That is my point exactly. When you realize what percent of people in California used a government subsidized loan that they fell free to walk away from the price for someone who intends to stay/pay is too high. Considering the cumulative mortgage default rate in Ca over the last 3 years is in excess of 20% this is a big issue.
Now instead of the government (in particular Democrats) who speak longingly about affordable housing letting the market adjust they allow companies (FHA, FNM, and FRE) continue to hand out free money keeping prices high.
The news on Taylor Bean (Former 3rd largest FHA lender) is particularly disturbing. FNM recognized most of their loans as fraud back in 2002 but FRE and FHA continued to use them until they were shut down.
Is there any wonder why FHA eligible properties continue to be “hot”.
Well said, pepsi. That is precisely the range we are looking in. Unfortunately, we don’t have the resources to look in the 900K range.
“The measure of what something is worth is what another party is willing and able to pay for it at that time”
True enough for that one person and at that one instant. Five minutes, let’s say right after your neighbors get their NODs, it could be really, really dumb.
In other words, that’s a meaningless aphorism.
Thats precisely the point Ice Weasel “at that time”. Say five minutes after you buy that house, a piece comes out in the paper saying your area will be the site of a hi speed underground, no stop train that will take you directly to downtown – suddenly, your house is worth 20% more because thats what people are suddenly willing to pay for it.
Likewise, if the paper says a new study confirms your area is a toxic waste dump, all the homes are worth only half of what they were 5 minutes ago, because thats all someone is willing to pay for it.
These are extreme examples, but show how value is relevant only in that particular moment in time. 99% of the time in the world of real estate, prices move slowly enough to where the values are “static” for a period of months or longer. Yet it can happen that they rise or fall precipitously thanks to hypersonic trains, toxic waste, or funny money.
I know this is incredibly unsatisfying as everyone here would like to think there is some “underlying” or “true” or “fundamental” value that can easily be ascertained, and will eventually be “revealed”. I can assure you there is not.
There might be big variation of price between individual items, but generally speaking, similar items could have a static price (range).
Most of people would agree to pay $8 for a pound of ribeye steak in supermarket, but the one that I am having could be $100 (cooked by famous chef) or $.01 (if I dropped it into toilet)
This applies to housing, too.
Sarah,
I’ll grant you that prices can change dramatically based upon exogenous factors, but in general I have to disagree. There’s the issue of sustainability, and true/fundamental values have to meet that test, and IMHO CV prices currently do not.
“true/fundamental values have to meet that test”
Thats fine. You can believe what you want, but in the 300 years or so of published research into “true” value, no one has been able to find it.
I suppose houses in CV California could be the one exception…
Agree about the “fundamental value” nonsense. I have a friend who didnt buy in Huntington Beach back in 1996 because he was convinced it wasnt a good value.
It wasnt a good value “to him” but it obviously was a good value to the buyers as they have since bid it up to stratospheric heights he didnt think imaginable in 1996 – even after this historic crash we have seen.
13 years later he is still renting, pining away for a home in HB. Imagine how different his life would have been had he just not listend to his pre-conceived ideas of value and acknowledged a recovery for what it was.
That’s a sad case JK but maybe bears a bit of reflection. If your friend is still pining after 13 years, it suggests he undervalued a HB home in the first place. If he had valued it correctly, he’d be saying something more along the lines of “I didn’t buy a HB house, and because of that I’ve saved an extra $1.2M and can retire 5 years early so it was an OK trade” (or whatever).
I mention this because I agree with what Sarah Stevens and others were saying, the value of the place you live is an awfully subjective thing and not easily amenable to some sort of dispassionate calculus. Discounting intangibles just because you can’t easily exchange them for cash is foolish IMHO.
The reasons which hold up the CV values will still be there. As Jim mentioned, there are enough people with enough money would like to pay the premium to live there.