There were two REOs that we put on the market last week – this is the bigger one, a 2,031sf one-story house on Pismo Bay in North Oceanside. The lender has been more willing to spend up to $10,000 for improvements lately, so we’ve been taking them up on it:
If this house would have hit the market with the old carpet and paint, we would have been lucky to sell it, because $359,800 is a truckload of money near the back gate.
Good job on the comparisons.
People are dumb. TOO MUCH MONEY!!!
Great video, Jim. But where is the ice cream truck?
A very sad story – especially that the owner(s) are not young and can’t start over.
Jim, love the videos, but they are sad; not just the folks whom got ruined financially, but then hearing about bidding wars on properties in your neck of the woods. I guess it does not matter what we think the price of these homes should be, the ‘market’, real or manipulated, says otherwise.
Great video example
I’m surprised it’s being bid up to near $400K, by the back gate? I would like to know more about these people who are willing to drop $3000/mo. in a high crime area for a modest house. Can you give us a general profile of these buyers? Surely not investors.
Low end oceanside is even hotter than I thought. I would like to see more videos like this.
osidebuyer- assuming the sales price is $390K, and they are putting 3.5% for a down payment, ($13,650), at 5.25%, conforming 30 year loan of $386K, the monthly payment is $2,131.50. Try looking up mortgage calculators on line. Say $2,500 a month for a home you own, tax benefits, first time buyer credit, and, you are paying down the principal. I bet someone goes $410K to seal the deal.
I think the volume of back-up buyers mean that yes, the market is determining values because listing prices are actually too low, (ahem, JtR, I’m talking to you). Just talked to realtor a few minutes ago and he is telling his buyers to submit offers on 10 houses hoping to get one! Of course, this is the under $500K market.
It will be interesting to see what year over year by prices are doing by early 2010. Already it’s inching up month over month. It won’t take much once the “organic” market re-emerges to see some dramatic gains. Even if the middle tier and upper tier drop this will set the stage for overall year over year increases.
Not Paying the Mortgage, Yet Stuck With the Keys
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/23/AR2009062303500_pf.html
Was reading an article on short sales earlier today.Seems like all of a sudden everyone has a hardship and wants the banks to eat their losses.So basically they specualted and they would gain on the upside but the they want the banks to eat their loss.Seems like a no brainer to me.Something has to change here.Anyone can quit their job and have a hardship.Within 2 years after a short sale these people can buy another home,3 years with a foreclosure.This is why we have so many short sales.These people often put nothing down so they basically paid rent and gambled on appreciation.No wonder the real estate market is so scrwed up.
Mozart, thanks for the input, but I don’t decide pricing (stay tuned for next video).
I will respectfully submit your thoughts to the list-price decision-makers at the Bank of America though, I’m sure they’ll be happy to hear it. 😉
If that is $400K in Oceanside, then the price premium to live in the same type house in 92024 is around $200K – $250K? I don’t think these prices we are seeing now will bounce back to the same level same time next year however – though I hope they do.
Patience grasshopper.
FF & MJ RIP !
Even if the middle tier and upper tier drop this will set the stage for overall year over year increases.
LOL. You’re so funny. Really, do you write your own material or do you get if from the fortune cookies they hand out with your Kool Aide.
Mozart, I just bought so I’m all too aware of figuring the monthly cost. My rough figure of $3K/mo. assumes a slightly higher price (bids still coming in) and higher 30yr. interest rate (yours is optimistic right now, unless you have perfect credit, pay points, and 20% down), also I include taxes, insurance, and utilities for a ROUGH estimate of out-of-pocket $/mo.
Anyway, my point is that although this is encouraging for me to see, I’m just surprised someone would pick that house/area with that much to spend each month. I’ve been shopping for the past 6 months and everyone told me to stay away from the back gate. So even if I decided to buy there I’d expect to get a steal of at least 50% off peak. I was hoping Jim might be able to shed some light on the reasoning.
Glad to help Jim. Feel free to have BofA contact me directly for free expert advice. Well worth it’s price!
Missed the latest posts:
osidebuyer- I come up with $3,000/month at 5.25 and a loan of $535,000 using my bank’s website. Plus you pay utilities renting a house anyways and don’t forget tax benefits if you are really doing a cost benefit analysis. Could be repairs too so I know it can cut both ways.
Doofensmirtz- Perhaps I should clarify, my point is that we will see the median sales price rise. This will fuel more concern that people have missed the bottom. And, this will likely trigger more buying. I think the middle tier will hold strong as fears both ease about the economy and rise about affordability. And, the upper tier is set to soften, I agree, and it is already happening. It’s a market returning to normal albeit a new kind of normal.
Glad to stir things up.
Ah yes, that pesky median. The number that basically says the low end is selling more than the middle and high ends. Then I would have to agree with you. That median is likely to go up a few ticks as middle and high end come crashing down. *Pop* goes the bubble.
I was hoping Jim might be able to shed some light on the reasoning.
Beats me.
Must be supply and demand?
Supply and demand of one-story homes?
I wasn’t doing a cost benefit, but whatever plug in your own number, it’s still alot for that area.
Mozart, get real. Is that why sales volumes are declining yoy for NC coastal? You can try and paint a rosy picture with your median uptick, but nobody is buying it.
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-home-appraisal-mess-2009-6
The Home Appraisal Mess
Joe Weisenthal
Jun. 25, 2009,
We’ve been talking this week about the NAR’s war against what it claims are low-ball home appraisals, caused by new regulations, and outside appraisers using distressed and foreclosure sales.
Real estate appraiser Jonathan Miller is weighing in on the question, and finds some merit to the idea that there are problems with current appraisal methods.
But first, he thinks it’s ridiculous to dismiss distressed and foreclosure sales as being somehow irrelevent, since the market is the market. If a home seller has to compete with other homes that are being foreclosed upon, then them’s the breaks, and that does legitimately drag down the value of a home.
But on the whole he’s still critical of the NAR and National Association of Home Builders for what he says are dishonest attempts to fight honest, appraisals.
Jim,
Have you given any thought to having these videos donated (archived) at some university? Your commentary amounts to excellent field research.
None of us knows exactly how we’re going to come out the other end of this epic financial mess, but some day, people are going to want to know what happened, and this kind of documentation will contribute (hopefully) to understanding this fiasco.
This is off topic… Doofensmirtz you win the award for best screen name. Phineas and Ferb is by far my favorite kids show. It makes me laugh every time I read Doofensmirtz at the end of a comment.
There is a significant problem with lowball appraisals. Even with huge equity, homeowners applying for refi’s receive ridiculously low appraisals that include non-comparable comps for REO’s miles away and not in the same general neighborhood or development. REO sales, which are priced at bottom dollar in the first place, are being undervalued. This is certainly an over-reaction to the corruption of the past. However, in my opinion, there is a formula that lenders are currently requiring appraisers to use: use a comp 5 miles away for a trashed out dump with half the square footage of the subject property. NAR sent out an email today regarding action on this subject.
Appraisals are a joke.Realtors give a better estimate of market value.
“I think the middle tier will hold strong as fears both ease about the economy and rise about affordability. And, the upper tier is set to soften, I agree, and it is already happening.”
_______________________
If the middle tier is in the $500K-$1 mil range, it’s not holding very strong in most zips. For instance, that tier in 92037 has not held strong by any stretch of the imagination. Too many examples to list. Just look at what is happening in Ridgegate in the SFR world and Seahaus in the condo world and see how those who bought in ’05ish are already down several hundred thousand dollars. Not going too well for those folks. And there is alot and I mean A LOT of inventory out there.
As for the high-end, there are already plenty of examples on the Piggington Pain in LJ thread that clearly depict a whole lot more than “softening”. Same problem with inventory as the mid-tier – maybe more so. The beating is well underway.
So where is the data – any data – that convincingly indicates that the upper tiers are not coming down? I would like to see it. I would like to see lots and lots of examples of the upper tier homes not closing for less and less as we go along. Right now all I see are declining closing prices and a huge amount of inventory that is moving at glacial speed. Please, someone bring some other data to open my eyes and enlighten me. I’m serious.
4 FHA & 1 VA out of 8 offers? These buyers have no money, are going to start out underwater, and will slowly sink from there.
I think the middle tier will hold strong as fears both ease about the economy and rise about affordability.
—
NEW YORK, June 23 (Reuters) – ABC News on Tuesday released its weekly index on consumer confidence in the United States. The Consumer Comfort Index fell in the latest report to -53 from -49 the prior week. The index is now just one point above its all-time low of -54, which was reached in the week ended Jan. 25, 2009, and before that in the week ended Dec. 1, 2008.
—
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Mortgage rates were mixed this week as the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose further above 5%, according to Freddie Mac’s (FRE) weekly survey of mortgage rates.
‘all I see are declining closing prices and a huge amount of inventory that is moving at glacial speed. Please, someone bring some other data to open my eyes and enlighten me. I’m serious.’
How about non-condo 92130 and 92127?
Closing prices are down, but I’m not sure I’d make the claim of huge amounts of inventory. Unless of course you are referring to 2005/2006 delusional list priced inventory.
Anything reasonable appears to fly off the market.
Buyers are more informed, thanks to the internet.
It’s turned the market into an either/or environment.
Either you are priced right, and sell in the first 1-2 weeks to waiting buyers, or your not.
The “glacial speed” pertains to those sellers who slowly lower their price, kicking and screaming all the way down. But until they get their price right, there’s no hope.
The rare “lucky sale” may cause a seller to get towards the top of their range, which I’d consider +/- 5% on any house.
Whatever tier it is, there are sellers (and agents) not paying attention, just living in la-la land thinking that they are in the game, but they aren’t. Waste of everybody’s time. Unless you believe we are in an appreciating market, then it’ll just be a matter of time before the market catches up. But we’re not, so each day they get further behind.
tj,
You’re talking about the losers though. The unintended consequences of these bidding wars is that the banks select the most qualified buyer, which is typically the one with the biggest down payment.
It’ll build in some stability into the market.
I’m mid tier. I bought a single story, SFR in ’06 for $650K in 92024. A house around the corner and on a hill on a non zero lot line, cul-de-sac and 300 sqft larger. This is not a short and the price is $625. That represents a 12% – 14% loss on paper. If I held out three years, I would have been able to purchase a bigger already upgraded home in a slighty better location. But, I got laid off so I guess. So perhaps same time next year I’ll try and compare again – assuming I found a job by then =P
I just re read my post and I think I better lay off the red wine for tonight =)
Has anyone ever looked at the data to determine just how many people can actually afford their current mortgage, or get a new mortgage? Someone needs to explain to me, even now, how people whom make less than 80k per year, even get a mortgage? Is it not supposed to be less than 35 percent of income.
Assuming median household income in CA is 65k(?), take home pay would be around 4k per month; mortgage/PITI 2-3k per month for 400-500k mortgage, cars/insurance, bills, gas, groceries, misc, useless bling, CC, kids. That leaves little, if any, left over each month, which is why we are in this mess.
Where has my logic failed me? Is there really that many people in So Cal whom make at least 80k to support the 500k market, which is supposedly hot?
Yes, plus others who are using big down payments, or paying all cash.
The last time I checked, I think it was 78% of the buyers used at least 20% down.
Here’s the link from March (80%):
https://bubbleinfocom.wpenginepowered.com/2009/03/whos-buying/
Here’s the link from May (78%):
https://bubbleinfocom.wpenginepowered.com/2009/06/carlsbads-may-sales-review/
“Where has my logic failed me? Is there really that many people in So Cal whom make at least 80k to support the 500k market, which is supposedly hot?”
No your logic is sound. In fact SD as far as working people is far more limited in salary than say San Jose.
Southern CA needs to adjust back to the nation. If it does not, we’ll see even more exodus out of here.
How it got out of adjustment needs to be looked at because SD should not draw SF or NYC prices. There is a manipulation that has occurred somewhere, malicious or not.
This is where I get so discouraged.
Good, bad or indifferent, I live with all the comments put forth here on the blog. But let’s face it, they are mostly negative, and I’m willing to take it.
But when a guy asked a question, and I give an answer with solid proof, then the next guy (Jim B) completely ignores my answer and instead cheers on the common misperceptions, I think to myself, “Why do I bother?”
Long-time piggingtons will remember powayseller. There was no bigger bear a few years ago – she would pummel every comment that hinted at optimistic with her fundamentals.
I had lunch with Schahrzad a couple of times to convince her of the raging, unbridled desire to buy homes. She wouldn’t have anything to do with it.
I told her that if she really wanted to see the truth, to become a realtor herself.
Here is her words this week, from someone who was once the biggest bear ever:
http://www.californiahousingforecast.com/commentary/2009/6/21/sellers-market-30-offers-on-day-1-is-the-new-reality.html
Guys. Saving for a home is NOT that hard. It’s called live within your means.
If people want to buy homes and I’m out of a job maybe I’ll look into Real Estate as a new career. I’m sick of hi-tech and need a change.
Jim I understand if you are sick of this blog and want to quit. Business is booming for you and who needs all this negative crap to every article you write. I’ve gone through all the stages of grief and just came to realize that San Diego is just EXPENSIVE. If you want to live here near the ocean you gotta pony up. Good Luck to you and your business and I appreciate the wisdom you have given to the San Diego housing market.
JtR,
Us bears are frustrated to, and thank you for this very open forum for us to release some of our frustrations.
We’re not trying to refute the facts, but we are trying to understand them a little deeper. From my perspective, I’m very curious to know who these buyers are. Are they folks that waited out the bubble and are seeing relative bargains? Are they folks who sold at/near the peak of the bubble and are getting back in at a relative bargain? Are they hopeful investors? Are they move up buyers selling a long-owned home with plenty of equity on the white-hot lower end to move to something bigger and better?
Whatever the pool of buyers happens to be at the moment, it just seems unsustainable that there are enough of them to support the market as it is now for an extended period.
Anyhow, thanks again for giving us all a place to vent.
It is very interesting to me to more fully realize how much psychology is really the driver in RE. Societal messages (from the NAR, your family) told us all to buy now! So people bought and sold and then many bought and sold some more or refinanced and HELOC’d. Every home sold made a new higher comp for the neighborhood. And created more excitement about the RE market. Let’s get in quick! Let’s make more. It was like a big ponzi scheme–you had to get in play as long as possible and get out with your money before it blew up (although many didn’t know about the last part–the “get out” part).
Then financial crisis hits, everyone panics; subprime loans start failing, everyone panics more. The market freezes up. Prices plummet. Smart investors start buying in. Everyone is still terrified, but meanwhile the rest of life is going on and people who “in normal times” would have bought a house, are tired of waiting, but they still wait because they are scared.
Then we start hearing about the savvy investors’ success stories; now everyone (as Jim put it) wants to “steal one from the bank.” Lots of those fence sitters are moving from the frustration zone to the “let’s bite the bullet–I’m tired of waiting” zone.
My feel is the bottom end is probably getting terribly over-hot. Current bid prices are amazing to most rational people I know. I suspect frustration is setting in after suffering through multiple scenarios where they have been out-bid. So buyers are more aggressive on the next offer, bidding much higher: “I’m going to win THIS time!”
I’m not sensing the “over-hot” in the mid-tier (under $1M), but that more people in that range are (finally) pricing their homes better and so they are moving inventory better (but I don’t really watch too much under $600k–so my view may be skewed).
But in the upper ends (which I do watch, from up to about $2.5M–that’s as far as I go), I’m still seeing mostly “I’m not going to give it away!” with rare exceptions. And those who do sell, seem to painfully follow the market down first.
And because of all the uncertainty, people who don’t have to sell–even though they may want to– are most holding back. So there’s low inventory in the mid-to-upper tiers. (And even less of decently priced homes at those price points.)
Many people who are/were attracted to “bubble blogs” were ones who early on recognized the danger signs. We wanted to find out what would happen next. We wanted to make our plan and be the wise ones in this crazy time. We wanted to be the ones “stealing one from the bank.” But with so many interventions in the “normal” market process, some things we expected have come to pass, while others have not (or at least not yet).
When things don’t happen in the expected way, it can be maddenly frustrating–it even makes us angry! Like buyers who can’t get over the fact that the price of their home is no longer the same as 2006, many potential buyers can’t accept the hyper-activity in the current market. Once you get a belief in your head, it’s very hard to shift gears.
An anonymous blog post makes it easy to vent.
I guess OC Renter bought at the right time – avoiding any bidding wars.
Jim,
The comments aren’t negative about you and almost never argue with you. The exact same arguments go on at all the economic & housing blogs. As I see it, the only way to learn things is to politely debate them among knowledgeable people in an open forum.
Just so happens yours is a popular one, because — one way or another — we all love SD real estate and we all LOVE your videos!!!
Keep up the great work, and if you want me (or anyone else) to tone down a little then just ask. It’s just a little hard to restrain ourselves when Mozart keeps playing the NAR songbook, not to mention the fact that SD sales activity is inexplicably running contrary to the economy as a whole.
This information is so valuable and it has saved us a good couple hundred thousand dollars. We moved here in our late 20’s in 2005 and we were very confused. Without blogs like this we would be in a mess right now.
While the median household income is $65,000, the reality is that many people in San Diego happen to have a lot of money. Many two income households and wealth. I know many people who don’t make six figures but their families who live here provide the down payment so they can buy. Numbers don’t always tell the whole story.
While it is crazy out there right now I still think patience is key and come winter things will slow down a bit.
Jim – I’d be interested in knowing how it appraises, please keep us posted.
Jim-
What I’d like to know is: what is normal?
Things seem to have been SO skewed for the last ~10 years that nobody knows what is a normal, sustainable rate.
Since you have been through a few booms and busts, do you think that having 78% of all Carlsbad purchases => 20% is normal? And 42% of all purchases being => 30%?
One other question, and the answer will always be anecdotal, is whats the most common ‘place’ the cash is coming from? Are most of these 30%+ downs coming from inheritance? Move up buyers (who purchased +5yrs ago)? Move down buyers? I’m very curious.
Everyone is making this too complicated. Pick the high, mid and low end market. If a home sells for 400K in Oceanside, then I know for the same house, I would pay up to 1.5X to upgrade to the next tier.
That house does not worth more that $140/sq.ft
On sucker is born every minutes