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Posted by on Jan 12, 2012 in Foreclosure Count, Foreclosures/REOs, Market Conditions | 9 comments | Print Print

Foreclosures in 2012

Even though this RealtyTrac report mentioned how foreclosures had dropped significantly in 2011, the latimes.com couldn’t resist starting off their coverage with these two scary paragraphs:

California and other states are likely to see an enormous wave of long-delayed foreclosure action in the coming year as banks deal more aggressively with 3.5 million seriously delinquent mortgages.

And experts said that dealing with the foreclosure process, from issuing notices of default to selling repossessed homes, is likely to push housing prices lower this year before the real estate market has a chance to recover.

There was no mention of pushing “housing prices lower” in the RealtyTrac report, so I wish they would cite their sources. The banks sure seem happy with the current pace of foreclosures in San Diego County – here are the last three years of activity:

San Diego Quarterly Counts

Anyone, including reporters, can get a preview of 2012 foreclosure activity by looking at the trend of default notices – and it doesn’t look like ‘enormous wave’ conditions just yet:

CA Filings

I guess we can expect the mainstream media to assist with market overshoot when they insist on puffing their reports with the same tired old stuff.

Here’s a new chart – the price/value results of trustee sales. Even though bidders are running up the purchase prices to 18.5% above the opening bids, on average, this report shows that they are still selling for 18.6% below market value. The dumps must be going out at bargain-basement prices, because the quality properties seem to get bid up to within 10% of market.

Winning Bids of Trustee Sales

9 Comments

  1. Is this the “Moral Hazard” they mentioned?

  2. Will the 2013 elimination in tax relief to taxpayers who lose their home to foreclosure cause a wave of foreclosures in 2012?

  3. This summer there is going to be a rush…but I bet politicians will cave before the election on the rule.

  4. I guess we can expect the mainstream media to assist with market overshoot when they insist on puffing their reports with the same tired old stuff.

    Man, I wish there was market overshoot. I hope there’s market overshoot. Of course, it all depends on your view of the future. If you think the next 20 years is like the last… yes, we have massively overshot. If you think we’re in a repeat of the 40′s and 50′s, we haven’t quite even gotten close to the bottom. If we’re somewhere in between, we’re probably just about right.

    What do I know? I’m terrible at forecasting.

    Chuck

  5. I can assure you processors (remember most of the loans are owned by the government) want to process quicker. There were a ton of delays due to robo signing and government mandated postponement (HARP, HAMP. etc). Processors want to get these out the door, especially in place that still have high median prices (like coastal Cali) before prices fall further.

  6. Will the 2013 elimination in tax relief to taxpayers who lose their home to foreclosure cause a wave of foreclosures in 2012?

    housewife on cell phone passing you | January 12th, 2012 at 8:22 pm

    Since the loanowners cannot control the pace of the banks actions to FC, I would think that the savy loanowners who have stopped paying will try to force a short sale, so that is what I would look for, not REOs

  7. Will the 2013 elimination in tax relief to taxpayers who lose their home to foreclosure cause a wave of foreclosures in 2012?
    -housewife on cell phone passing you

    Yeah, but you’re screwed if the bank doesn’t foreclose on you for more than 2 years.

    I had a friend whose short sale took 26 months to complete (and that was with good offers). If you haven’t already started your foreclosure, good look getting it done in 2012.

    As a second recommendation (and I’m not really advising anyone legally), if you haven’t already gotten an approval for SS, I wouldn’t even bother that route at this point; your chances of completing in the next 11 months is low. Stop paying, beg the lender to foreclose and get a move on.

    Chuck

  8. Chuck’s post highlights the backwards nature of the messed up system: “If you haven’t already started your foreclosure, good ‘luck’ getting it done in 2012″.

    Who would have ever thought it would be difficult to get yourself foreclosed upon…

    WTF happened to the world???

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