San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Jan

Written by Jim the Realtor

March 27, 2019

I was so giddy yesterday about dropping rates that the latest Case-Shiller Index didn’t cross my mind. Our doomer guy jumped on the sixth consecutive decline above, but that was when we were nearing 5% mortgage rates and full market stall-out. Now that the sub-4% punch bowl is back, we should see the usual six months of increases begin again with the next reading:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Reporting Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.58
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.74
-0.3%
+7.4%
Dec
246.29
+0.2%
+7.4%
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%
February
250.91
+1.1%
+7.5%
March
253.41
+1.0%
+7.6%
April
255.63
+0.9%
+7.7%
May
257.07
+0.6%
+7.3%
Jun
258.44
+0.6%
+6.9%
Jul
258.49
0.0%
+6.2%
Aug
257.32
-0.5%
+4.7%
Sept
256.13
-0.4%
+3.9%
Oct
255.42
-0.1%
+3.7%
Nov
253.59
-0.6%
+3.3%
Dec
251.92
-0.7%
+2.3%
Jan
251.37
-0.2%
+1.3%

The 2.8% drop over the last six months is nothing but a flesh wound – sellers aren’t going to panic until there are big chunks of decline per month. The previous peak was 250.34 in November, 2005 – about where we are today!

3 Comments

  1. Jorge alvarez

    So we are currently in a bubble #2.?

  2. michael

    No its the same bubble. The decline in 2007 was a bear trap.

  3. Eddie89

    Bubble 1.0 was just reflated by loan mods, bank rule changes, low/no foreclosures, people squatting in the homes and not making any payments for years, etc.

    Federal debt is over $22 Trillion. Student loan debt is over $1.5 Trillion, credit card/revolving debt is $1.04 Trillion, auto loan debt is $1.14 Trillion

    The Fed had to bring back the punch bowl to the market.

    It’s not looking good out there. The time to hunker down and prepare for whatever’s coming is almost past due!

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