There was a lot of hubbub yesterday about NAR’s annoucement about their goofy ‘seasonally adjusted annual rate’ of national sales dropping 1.2% from May to June.
Lawrence Yun didn’t mention here that there were 9% fewer business days in June than in May, which would help explain much of the decline.
But for the casual observers, there is more trouble ahead. Why? Because statistically we’ve had it so good due to the frenzy that there is nowhere else to go but down. The red line shows the elevated sales last year, and the blue line shows how the frenzy continued into 2013:
NSDCC Monthly Sales:
If sales just went back to previous levels, the market would be fine. But if that happens, and the media compares the next few monthly sales counts to the last 12 months, it will sound like the sky is falling – we’ll be looking for another bailout!
How the sales trend looks on one line (in red), with the average pricing too:
Let the price correct another 10% or so and offer homebuyer tax credit. Sounds like a good recipe for next year.
I already see negative revisions of sales price OR a very wide LP range OR a decent LP to start with in CV. However it seems like in-land areas like 4S ranch, Del Sur & Poway have not received the memo yet