Excerpted from cnbc.com:
Diana: Anecdotally, I was doing a report on a residential street in Northwest DC last week, an area that is still holding its own and didn’t lose much in the housing crash. I was standing in front of a “For Sale” sign, when the Realtor from the sign came out of the house. She wanted to know what we were saying about the neighborhood, concerned of course that there were any signs of cracking. I assured her there were not, but asked about the house she was selling.
The Realtor told me it was actually under contract, after about 35 days on the market. I asked why there was no “under contract” sign, which used to be so commonplace before the “sold” sign goes up. She said they hadn’t had the inspection yet, although the house looked, at least from the outside, to be in very good condition. When I asked if she worried about that, her answer was, “You never know these days.” Apparently the jitters are widespread, even in one of the nation’s most secure housing markets.
With so much of the current housing market comprised of distressed property sales, and with the Realtors unable to capture so much of that share in their data, uncertainty is certainly understandable if not mandated. I read a report today citing Barclay’s analyst Stephen Kim of Barclays Capital, who is upgrading builders and raising price targets on the premise that we will see a housing “rebound” in 2012.
I read a report today citing Barclay’s analyst Stephen Kim of Barclays Capital, who is upgrading builders and raising price targets on the premise that we will see a housing “rebound” in 2012.
“In the absence of a government homebuyer incentive, prices for non-distressed home sales have stabilized for almost a year. In our opinion, this is the most important trend in the housing industry right now,” notes Kim. “We are amazed at how little attention it has been getting from the media and the Street. This stability on the part of non-distressed prices has occurred despite a very high share of distressed activity and continued declines in overall prices.”
I’m not sure where he’s getting that stabilization. CoreLogic reported home prices in September, excluding distressed sales, fell 1.1 percent in September. Their chief economist Mark Fleming cites a supply and demand imbalance and adds, “Distressed sales remain a significant share of homes that do sell and are driving home prices overall.”
We obviously have to be very careful reading today’s housing market tea leaves. There are so many different indicators and so many different entities reporting these indicators, that it’s often hard to find out what’s really going on.
That’s why I always go back to the Realtors on the front lines. They are telling us that this market, distressed or not, is skittish and undependable. A 20 percent cancellation rate for existing sales is shocking and does not suggest a rebound on the horizon. At best, I’m looking for simple stabilization.
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JtR: Skittish and undependable are qualities included in ‘stabilization’.
When there are fewer sales to begin with, and wider variety in the quality of what’s selling; there are going to be hot spots – and low spots.
I don’t think Diana or others in the mainstream media are open to seeing the hot spots. They focus on national stats – even though about a month ago she did an aboutface and suggested that the only stats that matter are local. But since it has been more of the national blend.
She says she “always goes back to the realtors on the front lines”. She did in this case and her interpretation of what she heard seems biased. Not that my fellow agents are that adept at judging actual market conditions, but let’s see how many times Diana quotes a local realtor in 2012.
It’s always going to be difficult for a national news program that’s run in 30 sec sound bites to do a story on a local hot spot. You’re going to get negative feedback from the people that aren’t in that hot spot or a general lack of interest. Why does a New York finance guy care about CV and the guy in Las Vegas is going to be upset about it.
You have to do something that is relevant at a national level and maybe use local knowledge to explain it. Only thing I can see that would make a story about NC Coastal doing well nationally relevant would be to integrate it with QCOM or ILMN growth. Of course it would probably be easier to do the same story with AAPL and the surrounding Cupertino area. Housing markets close to large growth employers have been hotter than other markets is at least a decent national story, even if it didn’t take rocket science to figure it out. How much hotter, lower foreclosure rates, time on market, lower price declines could all be relevant.
That’s cool, my beef with her is that she comes into it with a bad attitude, and puts a negative twist on everything.
But negative is what sells, and she has a large audience. How much of what she says is causing buyers and sellers to alter their plans, perhaps in error? There aren’t many other real-estate-news outlets for buyers and sellers to count on.
I hope more of this catches on – national media partnering with local outlets:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/entertainmentnewsbuzz/2011/12/nbc-stations-will-share-content-from-non-profit-news-outlets.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&dlvrit=52115
I should probably be an outlet?
I am also still wondering what she meant by this:
Realtors unable to capture so much of that share in their data
Unfortunately I have never had a realtor on the front lines quote data or stats from third party research other than NAR.
Looking locally although not positive, Corelogic(third party data that is used by the Federal Reserve ) today came out with updated numbers for San Diego-Carlsbad.
Home prices in the San Diego-Carlsbad decreased 6.94 percent on a y-over-y basis(October 2011 compared to October 2010).
According to the CoreLogic HPI, San Diego-Carlsbad home prices, including distressed sales, also declined by 6.89 percent on a year-over-year basis in Sept 2011 compared to Sept 2010.
I know a few well known agents from social circles(Scary Estates etc) and I am shocked how many can not explain through facts on what is happening only using gut feeling why prices will rise. This is Behavioral Finance at its best, letting emotions drive the decision.
This weekend when hunting in CV,FBR and RSF I will ask a few knowledgeable realtors(not the cute home tour guide type) if they even know who Corelogix is?
As a salesperson, a phrase used is “sell the sizzle not the steak”. I feel you can only sell the sizzle when it exists otherwise you need to sell the steak.
With all due respect to agents any bets on the answer on if I find any this weekend that has any facts about the steak?
Unfortunately I have never had a realtor on the front lines quote data or stats from third party research other than NAR.
Never? You’re blocked.
Jim
I have been a loyal follower for 2 years.
Granted Still Surfing is a pessimist but is that a reason to block them?.
They have recently given me the other side of the story that is hard to find
Although I feel that Still Surfings opinion on agents may not have been articulated diplomatically I feel it is not a reason to block a a poster
Jim , You may want to revisit this one
Hank
Thanks for following Hank!
I’m OK with pessimists, I’ve only had one request of commenters:
Don’t take shots at me or my people.
Anyone can make those same comments on any other website, and I wouldn’t have a problem with it.
But when he has seen me recite data and stats from the front lines since he has been commenting, and then says this:
Unfortunately I have never had a realtor on the front lines quote data or stats from third party research other than NAR.
then he is taking a shot at me.
There are many people who have been blocked (several who are the same person), who are here just to needle me. His email address is another poke: sixpercent_is_toomuch.
If he was here to contribute and learn a little something, I’d be fine with it – vague, negative and all. But when he starts directing it towards realtors when I’m the only realtor here, then it’s time to go.
This is the same guy who said the other day that I should pay more attention to CoreLogic when they say that 41% of San Diego mortgages are underwater. Since then I have left two posts with data showing that foreclosures around here are practically non-existent. I have said for months that if there was a big surge of bank-owned properties that hit the NSDCC market that we would endure – I have lots of buyers who would love to buy a house priced reasonably, or maybe even under comps.
But some people don’t want to hear that – they want to look at their ivory-tower stats and ignore the admittedly unusual data seen here. Which I don’t have a problem with either.
We can all exist with our opinions and hopefully learn a little something every day. I think my request to refrain from taking shots at me is a fair proposition.
Jim
That sounds fair
Diana got a little more upbeat today:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45572245
Local journalism has been ravaged pretty hard by downsizing, so there’s probably not too many housing oriented journalists left at the local papers/news stations. There’s some good San Diego housing blogs, yours, piggington, Rich’s stuff at Voice of San Diego, but it doesn’t get the viewership of larger news sources. Marketing your blog to tell your stories might help, but it’s going to be viewed as a biased source of information, in some people’s eyes.
Real estate is contentious issue right now. Sellers long for the 2006 prices to come back buyers want prices lower or more quality inventory, who’s going to blink first. It’s depressing for would be sellers, it’s depressing for willing buyers.
Thin the herd JTR….block away.
Its your castle so do what you want with it!!! I wouldn’t want someone coming to my little corner of the world, that I voluntarily opened up, and consistently spouting off about my profession from the outside. That’s your job from the inside.
As Otter & Boone said in Animal House:
“He can’t do that to our pledges!
Only we can do that to our pledges.”
“I realize many of you think I’m too bearish on housing’s recovery, but trust me, nobody’s more sick of reporting the same lousy numbers than I am.”
I have a feeling that Diana is reading your blog.
On the other hand, “Still Surfing” is not reading your blog.
Is that Diana Olick?
Cute, cute, cute…
And smart!! I’m in love.
NW DC is another “hot spot” owing to federal government largess.
Perhaps one reason for the negative bias is that the hot spots are outnumbered by the cold ones, nationally-speaking?
Jim, I think it’s just more evidence of the market stratification you’ve mentioned repeatedly.
I have to agree some one has to help keep fair and balance on these sites or we all will drink the same juice
Toscano on Piggington always let’s the Debbie Downers give their side. I think you should as well
Just to be neutral
I am neutral, and think it is a great idea – it keeps the focus on the present.
I object when people take shots at me. I put in a boatload of time and energy into this blog, with no obligation. I just hope some appreciate it enough that they will allow me to help them with their real estate needs.
I’m not going to put in that much effort, just to sit here and let anonymous jerks fire away at me. They are blocked.
But all sides of the argument are welcome.
“That’s cool, my beef with her is that she comes into it with a bad attitude, and puts a negative twist on everything.
But negative is what sells, and she has a large audience. How much of what she says is causing buyers and sellers to alter their plans, perhaps in error?”
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From 2002-2006 CNBC was putting an ultra positive spin on the housing market. Even when the bubble was bursting they brought Mozilo on every week to tell everyone how strong the RE market was.
I’m sure that caused a lot of buyers to make the wrong decision then too.
I’m not trying to be a wise guy, just pointing out that the mass media can work for you and against you.
Jim @2, from your linked story:
NBC affiliates in Los Angeles, Chicago and Philadelphia will work with work with non-commercial outfits in those cities — KPCC public radio, the Chicago Reporter and WHYY public radio and television, respectively — while all of the network’s owned-and-operated stations will get early access to investigative reports from the independent, nonprofit newsroom Pro Publica.
Sigh…Pro Publica was founded and funded by Herb Sandler of Golden West S&L/Wachovia shame. Other contributors to Pro Publica include George Soros’ Open Society Foundation, and the Knight Foundation (Knight/Ridder news). It hardly sounds “independent”.