Based on the current market conditions, it’s going to be a long cold winter.

I can go on and on about the sluggish market, but it doesn’t matter. Over the next three months, all that matters is whether sellers are motivated enough to move that they surrender. Give up the fight and cut a deal. Capitulate.

At least 3/4’s of them won’t.

Then once we get close to December, the remaining home sellers won’t feel as desperate because the joy and optimism of the new year will seem close enough that they will just wait – instead of giving their house away.

There will be buyers who cave and just pay the price because they’re tired of waiting. Or Trump could get lucky and Powell leaves early so a new Fed chief can get busy with getting mortgage rates back down to 3%. Trump should just offer Powell $100 million to leave.