Bill’s charts give us a good feel for the San Diego market.

Sales are doing great – April sales were better than last year:

The new listings are in check too. About the same as last April:

But here’s the problem. The supply is overwhelming the demand:

The number of 2024 listings in San Diego County was 22% higher than they were in 2023. Because the inventory had been historically low, I thought we could endure another 15% to 20% increase in the number of homes for sale this year.

But now the active inventory is 40% above last year? Yikes!

It means there is going to be massive disappointment among sellers. Of the detached and attached homes for sale around the county, 73% of them have been on the market for more than two weeks.

If they don’t make drastic changes in price and/or condition quickly, they won’t sell…at least not this year. The home buyers are on to it, and their patience is paying off. You may see an occasional crazy sale (six offers over list), but it isn’t a trend – anywhere.

It means there will be thousands of sellers carrying their hopes into 2026.

The Lowball Season is going to start earlier this year – probably by September. It means today’s sellers have 1-2 months to do more to improve their home and get sharper on price. Or face an unprecedented surge of 2026 listings, beginning in January. And there won’t be enough buyers then either.

The word is getting out too: