‘Deceleration’ at +24.9% YoY compared to when our market was just ramping up for the year-end frenzy of 2020? I’ll take it!
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“If I had to choose only one word to describe September 2021?s housing price data, the word would be ‘deceleration,’ says Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Housing prices continued to show remarkable strength in September, though the pace of price increases declined slightly.”
Extremely tight inventory, as well as heavy investor activity in the housing market, is keeping prices elevated. While the gains are falling, it is unlikely that prices will drop dramatically as they did during the housing crash. The fundamentals of supply and demand still favor an expensive market.
“The market has cooled since the beginning of the year, when dozens of competing bids, contingency waivers and price escalation clauses made home shopping a struggle, especially for first-time buyers. A growing number of homeowners are preparing to list in the next six months, hinting at an uncharacteristically active winter season,” said George Ratiu, manager of economic research at Realtor.com.
Statistics are not mathematics.
$1m house +100k/mo every month. By month 9; $2m pricing and only 5% to make the next months’ $10k. See the deceleration? Not really but statistics are what some use to deny your lying eyes.
I keep expecting a drift lower or at least a pause but what I expect is not what the data describes. Go with the data.