With the unsold listings piling up everywhere, I went to check the stale factor (above) and was surprised to see that the ratio of the active listings on the market for 15+ days was actually lower than it was previously.
It must mean that there has been a flurry of new listings recently.
There have been 87 new listings this month between La Jolla and Carlsbad, which means we should be well on our way for 300+ for the month of May.
Here’s how 2025 compares with the last two years:
Because today’s home sellers are loaded with equity and are somewhat reluctant to leave San Diego unless they get all their money, the less-motivated sellers who sense that it’s a ‘bad time to sell’ are going to wait until 2026 to hit the market.
It should mean that the number of new listings won’t explode from here to December.
What about 2026? There will probably be a bigger surge next year, caused by the larger group of 2025 leftovers plus those who waited. They won’t be a panic on price – they want their money – but the seller nervousness will cause them to start earlier.
The 1Q26 surge is going to be wild!
Why do you think 1Q26 will be wild?
What I’m seeing is a fairly definable expectation for the number of listings in 26 which is a 10%-15% increase over 25.
Is the number of solds also trending in a specific direction?
Why do you think 1Q26 will be wild?
Because the uncertainty will lead to a general malaise the rest of the year due to the lackluster 2025 results (too many unsolds).
Then the ensuing panic to get out next year won’t be reflected in price. It will be reflected in time – January and February listings should explode.
No seller wants to panic over price. They will think of every other possible solution first.
I bet on “little by little then all at once” as stale becomes anxious. Price reductions in a race to a lower price.
Totally agree yet most sellers will give up on 2025 and wait until January instead, rather than dump.
“My price can’t be wrong!”