Let’s compare the start of 2025 to previous years.
The last obvious buyer’s market was in 2009, and in the graph above you can see how the supply swamped the demand.
This year, sales have been strong and the supply is still relatively muted. Cash sales are a major driver, and buyers wouldn’t be paying all cash if they didn’t have faith in the environment.
So we’re fine, at least for now.
There won’t be a major panic either – homeowners have too much equity, and not giving it away will feel like the perfect solution for a ‘soft’ or ‘bad’ market. They will just wait until next year.
There should be some great deals made by those who stay in the game and grind out a lowball deal here and there. But they will be rare.
The last downturn was made worse by the exotic low or no-down financing. Most of those who bought in the 2005-2007 era had no equity by 2009, and walking away was common and encouraged by the unscrupulous agents and lenders.
The environment is completely different now.
Everyone was nervous how the market would respond to the doubling of mortgage rates. Three years later, we have survived better than anyone imagined.
We’ll survive the ‘tariff transitory temporary two-step whoop-de-doo market’ too.
“The spring housing season is beginning with more sellers and a growing number of homes for sale,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, in its March housing report. “But the high cost of buying coupled with growing economic concerns suggest a sluggish response from buyers in early spring.”