Most people think that the lawsuits are going to cause lower commissions, but if that happens, it will be in conjunction with the buyer-agents being eliminated. I’m calling it single agency for now.

Here is this week’s installment on the evidence supporting my theory. Even though I suspect this is BS like most of the things he says, he put this out for public consumption:

Kelman, for one, doesn’t seem too concerned about the settlement’s impact on his business.

“We’re just getting more aggressive about selling homes directly to consumers,” Kelman answered in response to a question about how Redfin is adjusting in the aftermath of the settlement. “There are so many people who called us over the weekend after the news of the settlement broke and said, ‘I don’t want to pay a buyer’s agent. I want to hire you to sell homes directly to homebuyers.’”

The new search portal, Homes.com (who wasn’t kidding about spending boatloads of money on advertising) is making a campaign out of Your Listing, Your Lead. They direct all buyer inquiries back to the listing agent, instead of sending to a third-party agent who pays for the lead.

But look at how much they are charging!

The only listing agents who are going to pay this money are the big teams – who will then be more excited about selling their listings directly to their own buyers, rather than co-op with buyer-agents via the MLS.

Forty percent of the NSDCC listings since March 15th (the day the NAR settlement was announced) have a buyer-agent commission under 2.5%. We saw the Berkshire Hathaway listing that didn’t offer any commission to a buyer-agent.

Being a buyer-agent is so tough that they aren’t going to do it for nothing – they will quit instead. Will buyer-agents convince buyers to pay them a full commission directly? No – they will quit instead.

It’s only a matter of time.

It isn’t what is best for buyers, and when buyers are harmed, it isn’t good for sellers either. Especially if the market slows. But here we are!