The local market will wind up the year with the lowest number of annual listings ever, the fewest number of annual sales ever, the highest prices ever (the latest Case-Shiller Index released tomorrow), and we’ll enter the new year with the fewest number of active listings ever.

What’s the worst thing that could happen?

We keep sliding into the Priced-To-Sit program, where sellers are happy for the market to come up to their aspirational price. It’s a strategy that was perfected in Rancho Santa Fe, where before the pandemic the actives-to-pendings ratio ran 10:1, and sellers just waited until their day came.

I’ll never forget the one RSF listing agent who took great pride in telling me that her one-year anniversary of her listing being on the market was coming up the following week. She was proud of her endurance and willingness to hold out until the ‘right buyer’ came along.

Interestingly, it was in 2012 that we had the lowest annual number of listings, and the following year got frenzied when the number of listings popped up by seven percent. There were other contributing factors to the resurgence, and our recent history is probably the exact opposite of then (years of real estate prosperity now vs. years of doom then).

Best-case scenario?

We get a 10% surge in new listings that aren’t priced ridiculously, and buyers keep buying – causing momentum to build through the selling season and give everyone assurance that it’s going to be alright.

The $0 – $1,500,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2023	22	$719/sf	75	15
Jan 9	26	$687/sf	50	14
Jan 16	23	$701/sf	52	20
Jan 23	25	$751/sf	60	21
Jan 30	23	$788/sf	45	25
Feb 6	18	$750/sf	59	24
Feb 13	18	$770/sf	48	26
Feb 20	17	$778/sf	49	26
Feb 27	18	$802/sf	48	23
Mar 6	22	$802/sf	44	14
Mar 13	22	$747/sf	45	16
Mar 20	16	$826/sf	49	21
Mar 27	17	$853/sf	47	20
Apr 3	19	$803/sf	37	20
Apr 10	11	$778/sf	53	30
Apr 17	15	$690/sf	44	27
Apr 24	12	$682/sf	33	25
May 1	11	$795/sf	35	27
May 8	14	$780/sf	33	24
May 15	16	$770/sf	37	22
May 22	21	$747/sf	45	18
May 29	20	$757/sf	52	21
Jun 5	23	$755/sf	49	20
Jun 12	17	$711/sf	31	32
Jun 19	16	$674/sf	34	33
Jun 26	20	$677/sf	32	29
Jul 3	21	$645/sf	28	33
Jul 10	23	$692/sf	30	32
Jul 17	21	$730/sf	37	30
Jul 24	21	$704/sf	37	32
Jul 31	21	$713/sf	44	27
Aug 7	22	$692/sf	50	25
Aug 14	24	$693/sf	48	24
Aug 21	22	$688/sf	25	29
Aug 28	25	$679/sf	47	38
Sep 4	23	$718/sf	50	36
Sep 11	29	$685/sf	44	33
Sep 18	28	$696/sf	35	28
Sep 25	31	$725/sf	36	25
Oct 2	24	$711/sf	50	25
Oct 9	29	$742/sf	47	20
Oct 16	35	$762/sf	45	14
Oct 23	31	$745/sf	43	18
Oct 30	28	$777/sf	40	16
Nov 6	28	$791/sf	41	16
Nov 13	26	$794/sf	46	16
Nov 20	31	$849/sf	49	10
Nov 27	26	$780/sf	57	15

The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2023	45	$809/sf	60	18
Jan 9	55	$828/sf	53	19
Jan 16	46	$838/sf	53	30
Jan 23	43	$793/sf	52	31
Jan 30	40	$778/sf	54	34
Feb 6	42	$814/sf	46	30
Feb 13	35	$823/sf	51	39
Feb 20	34	$801/sf	47	40
Feb 27	27	$846/sf	33	45
Mar 6	29	$893/sf	33	41
Mar 13	32	$850/sf	33	39
Mar 20	27	$872/sf	36	41
Mar 27	22	$832/sf	39	36
Apr 3	21	$779/sf	27	36
Apr 10	22	$816/sf	26	33
Apr 17	27	$797/sf	21	33
Apr 24	28	$856/sf	31	34
Apr 24	28	$856/sf	31	34
May 1	30	$789/sf	28	36
May 8	36	$808/sf	25	37
May 15	33	$776/sf	33	44
May 22	35	$818/sf	36	44
May 29	38	$786/sf	33	40
Jun 5	39	$791/sf	34	30
Jun 12	37	$754/sf	37	32
Jun 19	36	$779/sf	35	35
Jun 26	39	$766/sf	34	36
Jul 3	39	$776/sf	41	40
Jul 10	45	$780/sf	37	39
Jul 17	53	$807/sf	29	36
Jul 24	51	$787/sf	32	38
Jul 31	51	$763/sf	30	39
Aug 7	45	$750/sf	36	39
Aug 14	42	$739/sf	38	39
Aug 21	39	$707/sf	29	46
Aug 28	51	$723/sf	30	39
Sep 4	46	$739/sf	31	30
Sep 11	42	$771/sf	27	30
Sep 18	40	$805/sf	27	31
Sep 25	38	$851/sf	28	33
Oct 2	45	$827/sf	28	27
Oct 9	43	$891/sf	32	27
Oct 16	48	$848/sf	32	30
Oct 23	48	$837/sf	34	26
Oct 30	49	$829/sf	34	30
Nov 6	51	$825/sf	36	23
Nov 13	52	$826/sf	38	24
Nov 20	65	$863/sf	35	19
Nov 27	68	$843/sf	43	22

The $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2023	52	$869/sf	69	30
Jan 9	57	$940/sf	66	31
Jan 16	50	$948/sf	61	36
Jan 23	51	$949/sf	58	35
Jan 30	54	$964/sf	55	34
Feb 6	60	$930/sf	51	42
Feb 13	51	$1,038/sf	52	47
Feb 20	58	$1,022/sf	47	46
Feb 27	56	$1,064/sf	52	49
Mar 6	57	$995/sf	50	50
Mar 13	55	$1,015/sf	53	47
Mar 20	50	$1,011/sf	58	50
Mar 27	54	$1,039/sf	49	47
Apr 3	54	$1,035/sf	52	38
Apr 10	55	$1,004/sf	48	42
Apr 17	64	$985/sf	47	46
Apr 24	57	$1,001/sf	43	50
May 1	57	$1,008/sf	42	45
May 8	68	$1,031/sf	36	41
May 15	71	$1,007/sf	34	39
May 22	77	$1,003/sf	34	38
May 29	74	$1,002/sf	39	43
Jun 5	77	$991/sf	42	44
Jun 12	82	$986/sf	48	45
Jun 19	90	$978/sf	48	33
Jun 26	90	$1,015/sf	49	33
Jul 3	92	$1,019/sf	49	36
Jul 10	89	$1,021/sf	50	44
Jul 17	97	$1,013/sf	48	42
Jul 24	91	$1,010/sf	48	42
Jul 31	81	$999/sf	56	52
Aug 7	81	$1,011/sf	53	49
Aug 14	76	$996/sf	58	48
Aug 21	71	$959/sf	45	49
Aug 28	82	$990/sf	46	43
Sep 4	81	$1,022/sf	46	39
Sep 11	84	$1,017/sf	44	39
Sep 18	82	$1,031/sf	43	44
Sep 25	87	$1,079/sf	44	41
Oct 2	83	$1,081/sf	43	44
Oct 9	83	$1,056/sf	46	42
Oct 16	76	$1,059/sf	48	42
Oct 23	78	$1,068/sf	46	47
Oct 30	72	$1,068/sf	53	38
Nov 6	80	$1,051/sf	46	33
Nov 13	73	$1,039/sf	54	26
Nov 20	67	$1,063/sf	52	35
Nov 27	68	$1,048/sf	54	32

The $3,000,000 – $4,000,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2023	29	$1,236/sf	85	6
Jan 9	29	$1,180/sf	80	5
Jan 16	31	$1,196/sf	73	8
Jan 23	33	$1,201/sf	71	7
Jan 30	37	$1,218/sf	70	6
Feb 6	34	$1,236/sf	75	12
Feb 13	43	$1,333/sf	68	11
Feb 20	39	$1,392/sf	71	18
Feb 27	37	$1,323/sf	68	22
Mar 6	49	$1,222/sf	56	20
Mar 13	49	$1,312/sf	49	22
Mar 20	46	$1,321/sf	52	25
Mar 27	50	$1,329/sf	52	25
Apr 3	49	$1,342/sf	51	23
Apr 10	50	$1,321/sf	57	24
Apr 17	47	$1,342/sf	59	26
Apr 24	49	$1,281/sf	63	28
May 1	53	$1,227/sf	62	23
May 8	55	$1,122/sf	63	19
May 15	57	$1,211/sf	59	19
May 22	59	$1,170/sf	61	19
May 29	60	$1,171/sf	60	17
Jun 5	70	$1,178/sf	55	15
Jun 12	64	$1,198/sf	53	18
Jun 19	67	$1,184/sf	54	20
Jun 26	66	$1,204/sf	58	25
Jul 3	63	$1,215/sf	58	22
Jul 10	72	$1,204/sf	59	23
Jul 17	79	$1,173/sf	64	22
Jul 24	78	$1,182/sf	63	23
Jul 31	69	$1,181/sf	66	22
Aug 7	72	$1,214/sf	65	19
Aug 14	65	$1,224/sf	67	26
Aug 21	66	$1,236/sf	57	24
Aug 28	64	$1,232/sf	64	20
Sep 4	59	$1,215/sf	70	21
Sep 11	50	$1,134/sf	78	22
Sep 18	46	$1,150/sf	80	20
Sep 25	47	$1,182/sf	84	20
Oct 2	45	$1,221/sf	80	15
Oct 9	47	$1,205/sf	75	10
Oct 16	49	$1,192/sf	80	15
Oct 23	49	$1,201/sf	71	13
Oct 30	47	$1,191/sf	73	14
Nov 6	46	$1,183/sf	77	17
Nov 13	44	$1,206/sf	77	18
Nov 20	48	$1,176/sf	74	14
Nov 27	47	$1,191/sf	78	13

The $4,000,000+ Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2023	121	$1,744/sf	126	21
Jan 9	119	$1,716/sf	123	20
Jan 16	120	$1,761/sf	121	26
Jan 23	122	$1,707/sf	119	27
Jan 30	120	$1,680/sf	121	30
Feb 6	125	$1,714/sf	118	28
Feb 13	121	$1,750/sf	116	32
Feb 20	129	$1,725/sf	112	33
Feb 27	124	$1,743/sf	115	31
Mar 6	122	$1,753/sf	109	28
Mar 13	120	$1,782/sf	109	32
Mar 20	129	$1,783/sf	106	28
Mar 27	127	$1,781/sf	106	27
Apr 3	131	$1,774/sf	105	27
Apr 10	136	$1,788/sf	107	24
Apr 17	140	$1,776/sf	108	27
Apr 24	141	$1,771/sf	107	31
May 1	142	$1,760/sf	105	30
May 8	140	$1,737/sf	104	32
May 15	141	$1,812/sf	107	37
May 22	145	$1,816/sf	106	29
May 29	142	$1,846/sf	110	36
Jun 5	152	$1,791/sf	107	31
Jun 12	163	$1,777/sf	106	24
Jun 19	166	$1,779/sf	102	26
Jun 26	179	$1,758/sf	98	29
Jul 3	184	$1,670/sf	91	39
Jul 10	192	$1,653/sf	92	42
Jul 17	187	$1,666/sf	94	47
Jul 24	185	$1,668/sf	98	49
Jul 31	184	$1,653/sf	102	51
Aug 7	178	$1,639/sf	101	51
Aug 14	182	$1,625/sf	106	45
Aug 21	177	$1,612/sf	100	43
Aug 28	181	$1,644/sf	106	40
Sep 4	179	$1,646/sf	109	32
Sep 11	177	$1,683/sf	105	32
Sep 18	169	$1,660/sf	106	29
Sep 25	183	$1,662/sf	106	27
Oct 2	180	$1,676/sf	107	25
Oct 9	190	$1,647/sf	103	30
Oct 16	185	$1,613/sf	104	33
Oct 23	181	$1,655/sf	106	32
Oct 30	184	$1,618/sf	107	31
Nov 6	172	$1,622/sf	106	32
Nov 13	170	$1,645/sf	105	31
Nov 20	174	$1,654/sf	106	25
Nov 27	164	$1,663/sf	113	26

NSDCC Weekly New Listings and New Pendings

Week	New Listings	New Pendings	Total Actives	Total Pendings
Jan 2, 2023	11	6	263	89
Jan 9	36	15	277	88
Jan 16	36	34	266	114
Jan 23	36	22	269	116
Jan 30	32	25	272	123
Feb 6	46	33	275	131
Feb 13	30	35	265	150
Feb 20	43	34	274	158
Feb 27	27	30	260	165
Mar 6	45	28	276	150
Mar 13	38	38	274	154
Mar 20	39	37	265	164
Mar 27	36	25	267	153
Apr 3	37	28	271	143
Apr 10	36	39	272	151
Apr 17	47	27	291	157
Apr 24	46	41	282	167
May 1	59	31	288	159
May 8	53	26	310	151
May 15	48	31	315	157
May 22	50	24	332	145
May 29	43	37	325	154
Jun 5	43	17	352	137
Jun 12	52	36	357	146
Jun 19	48	30	369	143
Jun 26	65	26	391	148
Jul 3	60	48	394	166
Jul 10	51	34	415	176
Jul 17	55	28	430	173
Jul 24	37	43	419	184
Jul 31	48	44	399	187
Aug 7	43	32	390	181
Aug 14	36	24	384	178
Aug 21	41	45	371	187
Aug 28	37	27	395	177
Sep 4	35	29	378	155
Sep 11	40	30	373	155
Sep 18	37	29	369	145
Sep 25	39	20	382	141
Oct 2	44	31	372	132
Oct 9	45	23	384	127
Oct 16	31	23	381	126
Oct 23	36	26	379	131
Oct 30	28	17	371	125
Nov 6	30	23	369	118
Nov 13	29	16	358	112
Nov 20	41	16	376	100
Nov 27	13	15	352	106

NSDCC Weekly LP Quartiles

Week	1st Quartile	2nd Quartile (Median LP)	3rd Quartile
Jan 2, 2023	$2,095,000	$3,695,000	$5,995,000
Jan 9	$1,990,000	$3,495,000	$5,775,000
Jan 16	$2,000,000	$3,574,000	$5,995,000
Jan 23	$2,099,000	$3,595,000	$5,999,000
Jan 30	$2,195,000	$3,525,000	$5,942,000
Feb 6	$2,195,000	$3,598,000	$6,845,000
Feb 13	$2,300,000	$3,795,000	$6,495,000
Feb 20	$2,397,500	$3,950,000	$6,197,500
Feb 27	$2,480,800	$3,970,000	$6,845,000
Mar 6	$2,395,000	$3,749,500	$5,995,000
Mar 13	$2,397,000	$3,772,500	$5,997,000
Mar 20	$2,580,000	$3,995,000	$6,800,000
Mar 27	$2,595,000	$3,995,000	$6,845,000
Apr 3	$2,699,000	$3,995,000	$6,750,000
Apr 10	$2,799,500	$4,074,997	$6,895,000
Apr 17	$2,600,000	$3,995,000	$6,597,000
Apr 24	$2,685,000	$4,074,997	$6,895,000
May 1	$2,695,000	$3,999,000	$6,495,000
May 8	$2,525,000	$3,849,949	$5,946,000
May 15	$2,495,000	$3,749,400	$5,950,000
May 22	$2,444,000	$3,695,400	$6,000,000
May 29	$2,495,000	$3,699,000	$6,395,000
Jun 5	$2,450,000	$3,641,500	$6,000,000
Jun 12	$2,499,900	$3,799,999	$6,496,000
Jun 19	$2,495,000	$3,750,000	$6,497,000
Jun 26	$2,450,000	$3,799,000	$6,495,000
Jul 3	$2,479,000	$3,891,500	$6,235,000
Jul 10	$2,468,000	$3,900,000	$5,998,985
Jul 17	$2,350,000	$3,669,000	$5,949,000
Jul 24	$2,399,000	$3,799,999	$5,995,000
Jul 31	$2,395,000	$3,888,000	$6,245,000
Aug 7	$2,492,000	$3,895,000	$6,345,000
Aug 14	$2,495,000	$3,995,000	$6,499,000
Aug 21	$2,499,000	$3,995,000	$6,395,000
Aug 28	$2,395,000	$3,850,000	$6,245,000
Sep 4	$2,372,500	$3,957,500	$6,446,500
Sep 11	$2,299,500	$3,995.000	$6,845,000
Sep 18	$2,349,600	$3,995,000	$6,750,000
Sep 25	$2,349,500	$3,991,500	$6,695,000
Oct 2	$2,350,000	$3,995,000	$6,700,000
Oct 9	$2,372,500	$3,999,450	$6,750,000
Oct 16	$2,325,000	$3,995,000	$6,650,000
Oct 23	$2,299,000	$3,995,000	$6,695,000
Oct 30	$2,300,000	$3,999,000	$6,750,000
Nov 6	$2,250,000	$3,888,888	$6,650,000
Nov 13	$2,225,000	$3,893,444	$6,995,000
Nov 20	$2,100,000	$3,805,000	$6,950,000
Nov 27	$2,199,999	$3,869,444	$6,950,000

Jim the Realtor

Jim is a long-time local realtor who comments daily here on his blog, bubbleinfo.com which began in September, 2005. Stick around!

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3 Comments

GeneK on November 27, 2023 at 8:20 am

Did the year-old RSF listing ever sell?
Jim the Realtor on November 27, 2023 at 8:33 am

Yes. After 545 days on market, it closed for 28% below it’s original list price.

It was the full Tuscan look from 2004, with no updates.
Jim the Realtor on November 27, 2023 at 8:39 am

The Priced-To-Sit program will work for everyone, but who knows where you’ll end up on price.

Sellers want to think they can hold out, but buyers will lowball them after a month on the market. Eventually, most sellers cave.

Inventory Watch

3 Comments

Jim Klinge

Klinge Realty Group

Broker-Associate, Compass

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