The San Diego Case-Shiller Index has bounced back nicely this year!

Percentage Change Between January and May

2019:  +3.5%

2020:  +3.6%

2021: +13.0%

2022: +11.6%

2023:  +8.2%

Even if it flatlines the rest of the year, are there any local homeowners that will be disappointed they only gained 8.2% this year after every forecaster said you were going to lose 10% to 20%?

Quote from the Case-Shiller boss (who keeps talking like we’re all clear):

“Home prices in the U.S. began to fall after June 2022, and May’s data bolster the case that the final month of the decline was January 2023. Granted, the last four months’ price gains could be truncated by increases in mortgage rates or by general economic weakness. But the breadth and strength of May’s report are consistent with an optimistic view of future months.”

What about the rest of 2023?

The different national measuring sticks should track a fairly flat trend like last year. The Case-Shiller Index was the most dramatic of the bunch:

The San Diego Case-Shiller dropped 11% between May, 2022 and January, 2023. Sellers should wait until spring, rather than give it away – but there will be enough that need to sell that we could lose a few points by January, 2024. But it shouldn’t be many, and there could be a slight increase if sales plummet (if only the superior houses are selling).

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