There shouldn’t be much new action for the rest of the month – it would be crazy to put a new listing on the MLS in the next 2-3 weeks. It means the current inventory – the lowest it’s been since May – couldn’t be any more picked over by those who don’t trust the Fed and were hoping to get lucky with their lowball offer and lock their rate in 2022.
This is the time of year that the ivory-tower types are issuing their forecasts for next year (NAR has a wrap-up coming tomorrow). But I’ve never heard so many people saying they don’t know what to expect in 2023. But isn’t it predictable?
Neither buyers or sellers will want to be the first to explore the new year, and because we’ll be having the lowest inventory in history, we’ll get off to a sluggish start. If there was finally a surge of boomer liquidations, it would help, but don’t get your hopes up. I would expect the seniors to be the last people to hurry up and get their home on the market early.
I expect a slow start as sellers ignore the recent market conditions and want to test the new year with exuberant list prices. As a result, only about a third of the new listings will actually sell, setting up a potentially stagnant market by May/June as the OPTs start to stack up.
This will be the first selling season in three years that pricing will be crucial!
The $0 – $1,500,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
Jan 3, 2022 |
9 |
$832/sf |
35 |
36 |
Jan 10 |
9 |
$766/sf |
28 |
29 |
Jan 17 |
13 |
$773/sf |
26 |
27 |
Jan 24 |
9 |
$818/sf |
15 |
29 |
Jan 31 |
14 |
$752/sf |
14 |
31 |
Feb 7 |
13 |
$774/sf |
12 |
32 |
Feb 14 |
11 |
$826/sf |
12 |
35 |
Feb 21 |
7 |
$889/sf |
17 |
38 |
Feb 28 |
12 |
$888/sf |
17 |
33 |
Mar 7 |
9 |
$1,017/sf |
21 |
33 |
Mar 14 |
14 |
$847/sf |
18 |
31 |
Mar 21 |
8 |
$912/sf |
26 |
36 |
Mar 28 |
10 |
$914/sf |
25 |
28 |
Apr 4 |
10 |
$782/sf |
33 |
34 |
Apr 11 |
19 |
$733/sf |
21 |
36 |
Apr 18 |
16 |
$795/sf |
28 |
34 |
Apr 25 |
18 |
$891/sf |
27 |
30 |
May 2 |
22 |
$822/sf |
23 |
31 |
May 9 |
24 |
$887/sf |
17 |
46 |
May 16 |
25 |
$783/sf |
22 |
25 |
May 23 |
29 |
$782/sf |
23 |
29 |
May 30 |
30 |
$782/sf |
24 |
28 |
Jun 6 |
34 |
$763/sf |
25 |
28 |
Jun 13 |
33 |
$802/sf |
29 |
29 |
Jun 20 |
48 |
$774/sf |
28 |
22 |
Jun 27 |
43 |
$755/sf |
32 |
22 |
Jul 4 |
49 |
$757/sf |
33 |
23 |
Jul 11 |
56 |
$757/sf |
35 |
22 |
Jul 18 |
51 |
$741/sf |
38 |
24 |
Jul 25 |
53 |
$755/sf |
38 |
22 |
Aug 1 |
46 |
$736/sf |
36 |
29 |
Aug 8 |
43 |
$746/sf |
41 |
32 |
Aug 15 |
37 |
$775/sf |
37 |
34 |
Aug 22 |
36 |
$766/sf |
41 |
33 |
Aug 29 |
34 |
$750/sf |
40 |
39 |
Sep 5 |
28 |
$717/sf |
50 |
31 |
Sep 12 |
31 |
$736/sf |
52 |
29 |
Sep 19 |
32 |
$753/sf |
36 |
27 |
Sep 26 |
31 |
$726/sf |
39 |
28 |
Oct 3 |
34 |
$733/sf |
34 |
22 |
Oct 10 |
30 |
$729/sf |
36 |
27 |
Oct 17 |
36 |
$725/sf |
36 |
23 |
Oct 24 |
39 |
$723/sf |
39 |
24 |
Oct 31 |
39 |
$732/sf |
38 |
24 |
Nov 7 |
40 |
$782/sf |
39 |
25 |
Nov 14 |
48 |
$742/sf |
41 |
20 |
Nov 21 |
51 |
$740/sf |
46 |
18 |
Nov 28 |
41 |
$777/sf |
59 |
23 |
Dec 5 |
41 |
$723/sf |
52 |
23 |
Dec 12 |
38 |
$717/sf |
54 |
18 |
The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
Jan 3, 2022 |
8 |
$842/sf |
52 |
36 |
Jan 10 |
13 |
$751/sf |
28 |
29 |
Jan 17 |
16 |
$736/sf |
33 |
27 |
Jan 24 |
16 |
$801/sf |
17 |
27 |
Jan 31 |
15 |
$696/sf |
14 |
34 |
Feb 7 |
15 |
$765/sf |
17 |
34 |
Feb 14 |
10 |
$726/sf |
19 |
38 |
Feb 21 |
19 |
$715/sf |
15 |
39 |
Feb 28 |
9 |
$660/sf |
12 |
46 |
Mar 7 |
16 |
$789/sf |
15 |
46 |
Mar 14 |
17 |
$837/sf |
8 |
44 |
Mar 21 |
18 |
$867/sf |
11 |
43 |
Mar 28 |
14 |
$838/sf |
15 |
48 |
Apr 4 |
18 |
$762/sf |
25 |
42 |
Apr 11 |
23 |
$774/sf |
15 |
39 |
Apr 18 |
22 |
$792/sf |
17 |
41 |
Apr 25 |
18 |
$810/sf |
20 |
41 |
May 2 |
27 |
$809/sf |
17 |
37 |
May 9 |
33 |
$837/sf |
17 |
46 |
May 16 |
39 |
$793/sf |
19 |
44 |
May 23 |
43 |
$793/sf |
22 |
44 |
May 30 |
36 |
$843/sf |
23 |
36 |
Jun 6 |
43 |
$817/sf |
23 |
41 |
Jun 13 |
49 |
$845/sf |
24 |
42 |
Jun 20 |
57 |
$817/sf |
24 |
41 |
Jun 27 |
75 |
$807/sf |
24 |
35 |
Jul 4 |
70 |
$827/sf |
27 |
33 |
Jul 11 |
71 |
$812/sf |
30 |
38 |
Jul 18 |
74 |
$793/sf |
32 |
35 |
Jul 25 |
83 |
$787/sf |
34 |
29 |
Aug 1 |
81 |
$780/sf |
35 |
31 |
Aug 8 |
76 |
$796/sf |
40 |
30 |
Aug 15 |
80 |
$789/sf |
42 |
38 |
Aug 22 |
78 |
$801/sf |
46 |
38 |
Aug 29 |
81 |
$811/sf |
51 |
40 |
Sep 5 |
82 |
$795/sf |
50 |
31 |
Sep 12 |
78 |
$796/sf |
53 |
29 |
Sep 19 |
73 |
$818/sf |
47 |
34 |
Sep 26 |
75 |
$795/sf |
45 |
33 |
Oct 3 |
75 |
$826/sf |
42 |
31 |
Oct 10 |
69 |
$853/sf |
45 |
27 |
Oct 17 |
73 |
$841/sf |
46 |
22 |
Oct 24 |
72 |
$857/sf |
45 |
27 |
Oct 31 |
74 |
$837/sf |
51 |
37 |
Nov 7 |
69 |
$840/sf |
51 |
37 |
Nov 14 |
65 |
$832/sf |
58 |
36 |
Nov 21 |
62 |
$829/sf |
54 |
31 |
Nov 28 |
55 |
$817/sf |
55 |
34 |
Dec 5 |
59 |
$819/sf |
57 |
28 |
Dec 12 |
56 |
$825/sf |
61 |
25 |
The $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
Jan 3, 2022 |
18 |
$1,080/sf |
127 |
43 |
Jan 10 |
23 |
$1,038/sf |
85 |
37 |
Jan 17 |
26 |
$1,044/sf |
80 |
41 |
Jan 24 |
28 |
$1,015/sf |
37 |
42 |
Jan 31 |
22 |
$949/sf |
38 |
47 |
Feb 7 |
26 |
$919/sf |
29 |
42 |
Feb 14 |
22 |
$997/sf |
37 |
49 |
Feb 21 |
21 |
$966/sf |
33 |
54 |
Feb 28 |
26 |
$905/sf |
32 |
57 |
Mar 7 |
29 |
$922/sf |
28 |
57 |
Mar 14 |
20 |
$852/sf |
26 |
58 |
Mar 21 |
17 |
$928/sf |
26 |
60 |
Mar 28 |
34 |
$927/sf |
12 |
65 |
Apr 4 |
32 |
$927/sf |
20 |
69 |
Apr 11 |
44 |
$910/sf |
17 |
62 |
Apr 18 |
48 |
$997/sf |
19 |
66 |
Apr 25 |
42 |
$1,092/sf |
18 |
73 |
May 2 |
54 |
$995/sf |
19 |
70 |
May 9 |
61 |
$910/sf |
20 |
73 |
May 16 |
64 |
$977/sf |
22 |
69 |
May 23 |
82 |
$953/sf |
25 |
59 |
May 30 |
78 |
$951/sf |
27 |
56 |
Jun 6 |
94 |
$963/sf |
27 |
58 |
Jun 13 |
98 |
$961/sf |
28 |
70 |
Jun 20 |
91 |
$935/sf |
32 |
59 |
Jun 27 |
111 |
$894/sf |
30 |
60 |
Jul 4 |
112 |
$910/sf |
33 |
60 |
Jul 11 |
122 |
$912/sf |
34 |
56 |
Jul 18 |
103 |
$893/sf |
39 |
68 |
Jul 25 |
108 |
$883/sf |
40 |
63 |
Aug 1 |
110 |
$887/sf |
41 |
58 |
Aug 8 |
124 |
$941/sf |
39 |
50 |
Aug 15 |
114 |
$945/sf |
45 |
51 |
Aug 22 |
123 |
$948/sf |
42 |
46 |
Aug 29 |
125 |
$938/sf |
46 |
45 |
Sep 5 |
116 |
$948/sf |
48 |
38 |
Sep 12 |
110 |
$908/sf |
49 |
43 |
Sep 19 |
108 |
$928/sf |
50 |
46 |
Sep 26 |
106 |
$926/sf |
51 |
45 |
Oct 3 |
103 |
$941/sf |
50 |
46 |
Oct 10 |
109 |
$987/sf |
50 |
42 |
Oct 17 |
103 |
$969/sf |
50 |
45 |
Oct 24 |
100 |
$953/sf |
52 |
51 |
Oct 31 |
100 |
$961/sf |
53 |
50 |
Nov 7 |
97 |
$960/sf |
54 |
47 |
Nov 14 |
97 |
$970/sf |
51 |
38 |
Nov 21 |
96 |
$975/sf |
54 |
33 |
Nov 28 |
91 |
$986/sf |
60 |
37 |
Dec 5 |
80 |
$929/sf |
64 |
42 |
Dec 12 |
74 |
$946/sf |
63 |
34 |
The $3,000,000 – $4,000,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
Jan 3, 2022 |
19 |
$1,230/sf |
90 |
26 |
Jan 10 |
22 |
$1,210/sf |
76 |
25 |
Jan 17 |
19 |
$1,207/sf |
86 |
23 |
Jan 24 |
17 |
$1,129/sf |
92 |
24 |
Jan 31 |
21 |
$1,172/sf |
70 |
22 |
Feb 7 |
19 |
$1,169/sf |
67 |
25 |
Feb 14 |
19 |
$1,234/sf |
65 |
28 |
Feb 21 |
21 |
$1,279/sf |
69 |
28 |
Feb 28 |
22 |
$1,214/sf |
64 |
25 |
Mar 7 |
27 |
$1,295/sf |
60 |
24 |
Mar 14 |
27 |
$1,201/sf |
65 |
27 |
Mar 21 |
23 |
$1,282/sf |
69 |
31 |
Mar 28 |
25 |
$1,253/sf |
67 |
30 |
Apr 4 |
30 |
$1,199/sf |
61 |
27 |
Apr 11 |
32 |
$1,174/sf |
62 |
31 |
Apr 18 |
33 |
$1,216/sf |
68 |
31 |
Apr 25 |
33 |
$1,219/sf |
63 |
33 |
May 2 |
37 |
$1,164/sf |
50 |
36 |
May 9 |
33 |
$1,132/sf |
57 |
32 |
May 16 |
40 |
$1,119/sf |
53 |
32 |
May 23 |
40 |
$1,135/sf |
57 |
27 |
May 30 |
40 |
$1,178/sf |
61 |
28 |
Jun 6 |
43 |
$1,224/sf |
56 |
28 |
Jun 13 |
48 |
$1,184/sf |
52 |
28 |
Jun 20 |
52 |
$1,117/sf |
53 |
26 |
Jun 27 |
60 |
$1,120/sf |
51 |
19 |
Jul 4 |
55 |
$1,127/sf |
58 |
23 |
Jul 11 |
68 |
$1,140/sf |
47 |
26 |
Jul 18 |
66 |
$1,206/sf |
52 |
25 |
Jul 25 |
65 |
$1,200/sf |
54 |
26 |
Aug 1 |
59 |
$1,191/sf |
60 |
26 |
Aug 8 |
58 |
$1,209/sf |
63 |
22 |
Aug 15 |
59 |
$1,166/sf |
62 |
21 |
Aug 22 |
57 |
$1,163/sf |
60 |
28 |
Aug 29 |
53 |
$1,168/sf |
64 |
31 |
Sep 5 |
48 |
$1,157/sf |
67 |
25 |
Sep 12 |
50 |
$1,215/sf |
67 |
27 |
Sep 19 |
46 |
$1,196/sf |
74 |
26 |
Sep 26 |
42 |
$1,200/sf |
82 |
20 |
Oct 3 |
42 |
$1,216/sf |
78 |
20 |
Oct 10 |
38 |
$1,154/sf |
62 |
18 |
Oct 17 |
34 |
$1,171/sf |
73 |
20 |
Oct 24 |
41 |
$1,148/sf |
69 |
14 |
Oct 31 |
36 |
$1,110/sf |
79 |
14 |
Nov 7 |
37 |
$1,100/sf |
76 |
9 |
Nov 14 |
39 |
$1,114/sf |
77 |
6 |
Nov 21 |
38 |
$1,089/sf |
78 |
7 |
Nov 28 |
35 |
$1,127/sf |
79 |
8 |
Dec 5 |
32 |
$1,099/sf |
71 |
9 |
Dec 12 |
28 |
$1,191/sf |
78 |
11 |
The $4,000,000+ Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
Jan 3, 2022 |
100 |
$1,884/sf |
128 |
30 |
Jan 10 |
105 |
$1,864/sf |
113 |
29 |
Jan 17 |
109 |
$1,763/sf |
110 |
34 |
Jan 24 |
105 |
$2,130/sf |
114 |
42 |
Jan 31 |
102 |
$2,114/sf |
118 |
53 |
Feb 7 |
109 |
$2,000/sf |
108 |
50 |
Feb 14 |
108 |
$2,005/sf |
109 |
47 |
Feb 21 |
113 |
$2,008/sf |
103 |
43 |
Feb 28 |
111 |
$1,991/sf |
101 |
47 |
Mar 7 |
115 |
$1,904/sf |
91 |
39 |
Mar 14 |
121 |
$1,893/sf |
95 |
43 |
Mar 21 |
116 |
$1,905/sf |
97 |
44 |
Mar 28 |
104 |
$1,966/sf |
97 |
59 |
Apr 4 |
103 |
$1,929/sf |
97 |
56 |
Apr 11 |
106 |
$1,906/sf |
97 |
55 |
Apr 18 |
108 |
$1,874/sf |
100 |
51 |
Apr 25 |
116 |
$1,829/sf |
97 |
38 |
May 2 |
117 |
$1,781/sf |
95 |
32 |
May 9 |
116 |
$1,831/sf |
96 |
36 |
May 16 |
124 |
$1,854/sf |
91 |
39 |
May 23 |
125 |
$1,855/sf |
92 |
36 |
May 30 |
129 |
$1,706/sf |
93 |
39 |
Jun 6 |
131 |
$1,740/sf |
89 |
33 |
Jun 13 |
132 |
$1,793/sf |
86 |
38 |
Jun 20 |
148 |
$1,772/sf |
84 |
35 |
Jun 27 |
153 |
$1,779/sf |
87 |
29 |
Jul 4 |
155 |
$1,777/sf |
82 |
25 |
Jul 11 |
164 |
$1,759/sf |
85 |
26 |
Jul 18 |
170 |
$1,740/sf |
86 |
26 |
Jul 25 |
178 |
$1,701/sf |
84 |
27 |
Aug 1 |
180 |
$1,696/sf |
85 |
28 |
Aug 8 |
173 |
$1,715/sf |
91 |
24 |
Aug 15 |
168 |
$1,746/sf |
89 |
32 |
Aug 22 |
160 |
$1,718/sf |
92 |
29 |
Aug 29 |
165 |
$1,732/sf |
93 |
28 |
Sep 5 |
162 |
$1,745/sf |
95 |
26 |
Sep 12 |
152 |
$1,715/sf |
96 |
29 |
Sep 19 |
155 |
$1,727/sf |
97 |
28 |
Sep 26 |
157 |
$1,728/sf |
97 |
27 |
Oct 3 |
150 |
$1,701/sf |
96 |
27 |
Oct 10 |
153 |
$1,711/sf |
103 |
29 |
Oct 17 |
152 |
$1,675/sf |
101 |
25 |
Oct 24 |
156 |
$1,697/sf |
102 |
24 |
Oct 31 |
157 |
$1,701/sf |
107 |
22 |
Nov 7 |
156 |
$1,682/sf |
109 |
22 |
Nov 14 |
154 |
$1,680/sf |
113 |
22 |
Nov 21 |
155 |
$1,682/sf |
113 |
22 |
Nov 28 |
155 |
$1,632/sf |
117 |
20 |
Dec 5 |
153 |
$1,625/sf |
117 |
15 |
Dec 12 |
140 |
$1,673/sf |
122 |
21 |
NSDCC Weekly New Listings and New Pendings
Week |
New Listings |
New Pendings |
Total Actives |
Total Pendings |
Jan 3, 2022 |
17 |
14 |
152 |
164 |
Jan 10 |
39 |
18 |
167 |
142 |
Jan 17 |
34 |
29 |
179 |
145 |
Jan 24 |
41 |
40 |
173 |
157 |
Jan 31 |
43 |
40 |
173 |
182 |
Feb 7 |
43 |
38 |
179 |
179 |
Feb 14 |
44 |
49 |
168 |
193 |
Feb 21 |
51 |
38 |
180 |
197 |
Feb 28 |
39 |
39 |
179 |
205 |
Mar 7 |
54 |
37 |
191 |
195 |
Mar 14 |
48 |
51 |
195 |
196 |
Mar 21 |
39 |
46 |
178 |
207 |
Mar 28 |
53 |
50 |
185 |
224 |
Apr 4 |
46 |
40 |
190 |
220 |
Apr 11 |
61 |
39 |
221 |
213 |
Apr 18 |
41 |
46 |
224 |
212 |
Apr 25 |
50 |
43 |
224 |
205 |
May 2 |
76 |
37 |
256 |
196 |
May 9 |
59 |
46 |
262 |
207 |
May 16 |
78 |
48 |
286 |
200 |
May 23 |
61 |
42 |
312 |
192 |
May 30 |
54 |
44 |
307 |
183 |
Jun 6 |
70 |
31 |
338 |
183 |
Jun 13 |
60 |
41 |
354 |
202 |
Jun 20 |
71 |
25 |
388 |
177 |
Jun 27 |
73 |
26 |
433 |
159 |
Jul 4 |
55 |
39 |
432 |
158 |
Jul 11 |
55 |
24 |
471 |
161 |
Jul 18 |
49 |
35 |
459 |
168 |
Jul 25 |
60 |
20 |
480 |
158 |
Aug 1 |
55 |
35 |
473 |
161 |
Aug 8 |
40 |
32 |
466 |
151 |
Aug 15 |
51 |
32 |
451 |
168 |
Aug 22 |
43 |
29 |
445 |
166 |
Aug 29 |
43 |
27 |
449 |
175 |
Sep 5 |
31 |
22 |
432 |
144 |
Sep 12 |
38 |
22 |
415 |
151 |
Sep 19 |
45 |
26 |
405 |
155 |
Sep 26 |
45 |
27 |
402 |
149 |
Oct 3 |
46 |
19 |
396 |
143 |
Oct 10 |
40 |
26 |
391 |
140 |
Oct 17 |
37 |
19 |
393 |
134 |
Oct 24 |
50 |
26 |
402 |
139 |
Oct 31 |
26 |
19 |
399 |
144 |
Nov 7 |
37 |
16 |
393 |
136 |
Nov 14 |
36 |
16 |
396 |
118 |
Nov 21 |
32 |
18 |
393 |
108 |
Nov 28 |
13 |
17 |
369 |
118 |
Dec 5 |
33 |
19 |
357 |
114 |
Dec 12 |
25 |
18 |
329 |
107 |