Our friends at JB have been on the forefront of market tracking for years now. They have staff that travels around the country to gather data from builders in particular, and have built a tremendous network.
I don’t mind being labeled as ‘slowing’ because…..well, I guess it beats falling!
Their definition of Slowing:
Markets in the Slowing phase face alarming affordability levels, decelerating (or even declining) home price appreciation, and rapidly slowing sales—making capital investments less attractive. Several of these slowing markets were among the first to recover from the initial COVID panic in April 2020.
- In-migration and job growth, fueled by the proliferation of work-from-home policies, set these markets apart as higher wage workers relocated due to the relative affordability—most notably Dallas, Jacksonville, and Raleigh-Durham.
- Current employment is well above prior peak levels in all of these markets. While strong job growth from high-wage sectors has buoyed these markets, it has also been the primary driver of their now strained affordability, with a significant number of locals now completely priced out of ownership.
- YOY home price growth is decelerating rapidly, and construction volumes are pulling back from very high levels.
Their business focus is tilted towards builders and new homes, but their analyses about the general market conditions are applicable to the resale market too.
Each area will have several variables that makes it unique, but we are a society that wants to label everything with one word. I have one word for you – auction. If an auction company took over real estate, we wouldn’t need opinions, analyses, or realtors!