Inventory Watch – Happy 4th!

Inventory

Written by Jim the Realtor

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July 4, 2022

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3 Comments

This should be about it.

If there hasn’t been a surge of inventory by now, it’s not coming – at least not this year.

There might be some nice action over the next couple of weeks as buyers try to land a deal before school starts, but there won’t be big discounts – they will have to pay the price.

It will probably be the same in 2023 too.

How do I know?

Ask any potential, or actual, home sellers around the coast:

“You already have to pay six figures in capital-gains taxes when selling your home (and if they are selling a home they have owned since the 1970s or 1980s, it could be $500,000 to $1,000,000 in taxes).

“How do you feel about lowering your price by $100,000 or $200,000 too?”

“How do you feel about losing that much money?”

Their answer will tell you everything about the future of our market – they’re not going to give it away!

It’s been the craziest six months of real estate ever! Expect it to get downright boring from here.

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The $0 – $1,500,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022	9	$832/sf	35	36
Jan 10	9	$766/sf	28	29
Jan 17	13	$773/sf	26	27
Jan 24	9	$818/sf	15	29
Jan 31	14	$752/sf	14	31
Feb 7	13	$774/sf	12	32
Feb 14	11	$826/sf	12	35
Feb 21	7	$889/sf	17	38
Feb 28	12	$888/sf	17	33
Mar 7	9	$1,017/sf	21	33
Mar 14	14	$847/sf	18	31
Mar 21	8	$912/sf	26	36
Mar 28	10	$914/sf	25	28
Apr 4	10	$782/sf	33	34
Apr 11	19	$733/sf	21	36
Apr 18	16	$795/sf	28	34
Apr 25	18	$891/sf	27	30
May 2	22	$822/sf	23	31
May 9	24	$887/sf	17	46
May 16	25	$783/sf	22	25
May 23	29	$782/sf	23	29
May 30	30	$782/sf	24	28
Jun 6	34	$763/sf	25	28
Jun 13	33	$802/sf	29	29
Jun 20	48	$774/sf	28	22
Jun 27	43	$755/sf	32	22
Jul 4	49	$757/sf	33	23

The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022	8	$842/sf	52	36
Jan 10	13	$751/sf	28	29
Jan 17	16	$736/sf	33	27
Jan 24	16	$801/sf	17	27
Jan 31	15	$696/sf	14	34
Feb 7	15	$765/sf	17	34
Feb 14	10	$726/sf	19	38
Feb 21	19	$715/sf	15	39
Feb 28	9	$660/sf	12	46
Mar 7	16	$789/sf	15	46
Mar 14	17	$837/sf	8	44
Mar 21	18	$867/sf	11	43
Mar 28	14	$838/sf	15	48
Apr 4	18	$762/sf	25	42
Apr 11	23	$774/sf	15	39
Apr 18	22	$792/sf	17	41
Apr 25	18	$810/sf	20	41
May 2	27	$809/sf	17	37
May 9	33	$837/sf	17	46
May 16	39	$793/sf	19	44
May 23	43	$793/sf	22	44
May 30	36	$843/sf	23	36
Jun 6	43	$817/sf	23	41
Jun 13	49	$845/sf	24	42
Jun 20	57	$817/sf	24	41
Jun 27	75	$807/sf	24	35
Jul 4	70	$827/sf	27	33

The $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022	18	$1,080/sf	127	43
Jan 10	23	$1,038/sf	85	37
Jan 17	26	$1,044/sf	80	41
Jan 24	28	$1,015/sf	37	42
Jan 31	22	$949/sf	38	47
Feb 7	26	$919/sf	29	42
Feb 14	22	$997/sf	37	49
Feb 21	21	$966/sf	33	54
Feb 28	26	$905/sf	32	57
Mar 7	29	$922/sf	28	57
Mar 14	20	$852/sf	26	58
Mar 21	17	$928/sf	26	60
Mar 28	34	$927/sf	12	65
Apr 4	32	$927/sf	20	69
Apr 11	44	$910/sf	17	62
Apr 18	48	$997/sf	19	66
Apr 25	42	$1,092/sf	18	73
May 2	54	$995/sf	19	70
May 9	61	$910/sf	20	73
May 16	64	$977/sf	22	69
May 23	82	$953/sf	25	59
May 30	78	$951/sf	27	56
Jun 6	94	$963/sf	27	58
Jun 13	98	$961/sf	28	70
Jun 20	91	$935/sf	32	59
Jun 27	111	$894/sf	30	60
Jul	112	$910/sf	33	60

The $3,000,000 – $4,000,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022	19	$1,230/sf	90	26
Jan 10	22	$1,210/sf	76	25
Jan 17	19	$1,207/sf	86	23
Jan 24	17	$1,129/sf	92	24
Jan 31	21	$1,172/sf	70	22
Feb 7	19	$1,169/sf	67	25
Feb 14	19	$1,234/sf	65	28
Feb 21	21	$1,279/sf	69	28
Feb 28	22	$1,214/sf	64	25
Mar 7	27	$1,295/sf	60	24
Mar 14	27	$1,201/sf	65	27
Mar 21	23	$1,282/sf	69	31
Mar 28	25	$1,253/sf	67	30
Apr 4	30	$1,199/sf	61	27
Apr 11	32	$1,174/sf	62	31
Apr 18	33	$1,216/sf	68	31
Apr 25	33	$1,219/sf	63	33
May 2	37	$1,164/sf	50	36
May 9	33	$1,132/sf	57	32
May 16	40	$1,119/sf	53	32
May 23	40	$1,135/sf	57	27
May 30	40	$1,178/sf	61	28
Jun 6	43	$1,224/sf	56	28
Jun 13	48	$1,184/sf	52	28
Jun 20	52	$1,117/sf	53	26
Jun 27	60	$1,120/sf	51	19
Jul 4	55	$1,127/sf	58	23

The $4,000,000+ Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022	100	$1,884/sf	128	30
Jan 10	105	$1,864/sf	113	29
Jan 17	109	$1,763/sf	110	34
Jan 24	105	$2,130/sf	114	42
Jan 31	102	$2,114/sf	118	53
Feb 7	109	$2,000/sf	108	50
Feb 14	108	$2,005/sf	109	47
Feb 21	113	$2,008/sf	103	43
Feb 28	111	$1,991/sf	101	47
Mar 7	115	$1,904/sf	91	39
Mar 14	121	$1,893/sf	95	43
Mar 21	116	$1,905/sf	97	44
Mar 28	104	$1,966/sf	97	59
Apr 4	103	$1,929/sf	97	56
Apr 11	106	$1,906/sf	97	55
Apr 18	108	$1,874/sf	100	51
Apr 25	116	$1,829/sf	97	38
May 2	117	$1,781/sf	95	32
May 9	116	$1,831/sf	96	36
May 16	124	$1,854/sf	91	39
May 23	125	$1,855/sf	92	36
May 30	129	$1,706/sf	93	39
Jun 6	131	$1,740/sf	89	33
Jun 13	132	$1,793/sf	86	38
Jun 20	148	$1,772/sf	84	35
Jun 27	153	$1,779/sf	87	29
Jul 4	155	$1,777/sf	82	25

NSDCC Weekly New Listings and New Pendings

Week	New Listings	New Pendings	Total Actives	Total Pendings
Jan 3, 2022	17	14	152	164
Jan 10	39	18	167	142
Jan 17	34	29	179	145
Jan 24	41	40	173	157
Jan 31	43	40	173	182
Feb 7	43	38	179	179
Feb 14	44	49	168	193
Feb 21	51	38	180	197
Feb 28	39	39	179	205
Mar 7	54	37	191	195
Mar 14	48	51	195	196
Mar 21	39	46	178	207
Mar 28	53	50	185	224
Apr 4	46	40	190	220
Apr 11	61	39	221	213
Apr 18	41	46	224	212
Apr 25	50	43	224	205
May 2	76	37	256	196
May 9	59	46	262	207
May 16	78	48	286	200
May 23	61	42	312	192
May 30	54	44	307	183
Jun 6	70	31	338	183
Jun 13	60	41	354	202
Jun 20	71	25	388	177
Jun 27	73	26	433	159
Jul 4	55	39	432	158

3 Comments

Jim the Realtor on July 4, 2022 at 10:14 am

CoreLogic has launched CitySnap in New York City. It is their trial run of their Zillow-alternative real estate search website that will funnel the buyer inquiries back to the listing agent himself, rather than to the Zillow Premier Agents who now pay 30% of their commission to Zillow for the service.

Here was my response on an insider website:

It will probably look like Homesnap, which isn’t better than Zillow/Redfin. But the consumers will flock there to find ‘new and exclusive’ inventory. That’s right, the listing agents will quit inputting their listings onto the MLS, and instead just use Homesnap only and have the buyer leads fed back to them for free. CoreLogic will probably charge the listing agent $250 to $500 per listing x 5 million homes sold every year.

No agent wants to pay 30% of their commission to Zillow for lousy buyer leads to assign to team members and hope they get lucky in the open market. This is a fantastic alternative that should catch on quick because the buyers are calling about my listing – big difference!

Unintended consequences: Single agency (where buyers get no actual representation, though they will sign an agency form allowing the listing agent to be dual agent), the end of buyer-agents which will drain the realtor population, and more reliance on automated valuations because no one is helping the buyers much.

Could this create a renaissance of buyer-only brokerages? Certainly the opportunity is there, but without the MLS they will have no product to sell.

Oh, you say realtors are obligated to input their listings onto the MLS? Myself and every agent would love to quit the MLS, the local board, the state board, and NAR today. They could all be out of business within the next 1-2 years.
Rob_Dawg on July 4, 2022 at 12:26 pm

Maybe I could create a new job category. Qualified buyer. I assume the buyer status representing the actual buyer. Honestly presenting the buyer’s… Oh wait, that’s a buyer’s agent already.
Jim the Realtor on July 4, 2022 at 2:45 pm

Hey Jim – Your line is going straight up, isn’t that a surge?

It’s just a surge of sellers who are holding out for their price, and buyers aren’t going for it yet.

But it’s not a surge of inventory, compared to historical numbers. These are the first NSDCC-inventory counts in July:

2014: 1,128

2015: 1,054

2016: 1,153

2017: 960

2018: 978

2019:1,029

2020: 755

2021: 356

2022: 432

Remember when the inventory plunged in 2020, and we thought the world was going to end? We’d have to at least get back to 2020 numbers before I’ll get nervous.