Yesterday, Rob Dawg got started on his prediction on next year’s market:
Is this the official JtR 2021 prediction thread? If so I will post again but for now…
The huge demographic groundswell of house-ready millennials will drive prices much higher. The municipal imposition of covering costs plus will make new supply rare. Money printing drives investment into tangible assets.
Double digit appreciation in the recorded sales. Stagnation in the houses that don’t sell.
The demand is in place between millennials, downsizers, move-uppers, and out-of-towners to easily increase sales by 10% over this year’s record count.
The only hurdle is supply. Will there be enough people willing to sell?
Let’s break it down to a specific number, because we’ll see that achieving 10% more sales isn’t that far out of the question. How many more people need to sell? Here is the breakdown of 2020 listings and sales:
NSDCC 2020 Listings and Sales by Area (as of Dec 30th)
|Town or Area|
|Del Mar/Solana Bch|
Does my guess of +10% in all categories look and sound crazy?
It looks feasible that we could have an additional 319 sales next year, and get us to 3,500 total. If we pick up an extra 200 sales in Carlsbad, we only need another 119 in the pricier parts of town.
The median price going up to $1,626,900? We know that sellers will be tacking on their habitual extra mustard to their list prices, so $1.6-ish for the year is definitely within range.
Could we have 4,969 listings next year?
This is the big question, but it’s not some crazy number we’ve never seen before – in 2016 we had 5,182 listings and 3,104 sales when mortgage rates averaged 3.65%.
Having an extra 452 houses to sell means 1-2 more listings per day – I wouldn’t call that a flood – and it’s about the right number to whip buyers into a feeding frenzy without creating a glut.