Inventory Watch

January 6, 2020



0 Comments

The market seems to be poised for a hot start in 2020 – heck, 30-year jumbo rates are in the low-to-mid 3s!

Let’s review the first readings in January to see how today compares to the last two years:

Price Range	# of Actives, 2018	Avg. LP/sf	# in 2019	Avg. LP/sf	# in 2020	Avg. LP/sf
Under $1M	35	$479/sf	72	$469/sf	40	$453/sf
$1.0M – $1.5M	99	$551/sf	154	$497/sf	89	$615/sf
$1.5M – $2.0M	98	$612/sf	108	$628/sf	113	$605/sf

Coming into 2019, the mortgage rates were still in the mid-4s, so no surprise to see fairly-high numbers of homes available then. Low rates and low inventory today make for an ideal sellers’ market, but buyers are going to wait and see if any better options become available over the next 30-60 days before overpaying for last year’s leftovers.

I did finally split my last category into two in the data below. The $2M-$3M category looks good (147 actives to 31 pendings), and the Over-$3,000,000 is about what you’d expect, with almost 9x as many actives as pendings.

Has anyone found a way to shake these flu-like symptoms? I gotta get to work!

The UNDER-$1,000,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 1	36	$477/sf	51	58
Jan 8	35	$479/sf	42	56
Jan 15	39	$469/sf	37	53
Jan 22	37	$453/sf	42	62
Jan 29	38	$459/sf	35	64
Feb 5	41	$463/sf	26	69
Feb 12	39	$461/sf	20	73
Feb 19	42	$456/sf	20	72
Feb 26	53	$451/sf	20	81
Mar 5	47	$457/sf	24	79
Mar 12	60	$434/sf	19	87
Mar 19	67	$478/sf	21	81
Mar 26	61	$477/sf	23	86
Apr 2	50	$464/sf	24	95
Apr 9	56	$471/sf	23	93
Apr 16	61	$464/sf	24	93
Apr 23	59	$459/sf	25	96
Apr 30	61	$466/sf	27	95
May 7	67	$472/sf	20	89
May 14	66	$480/sf	21	95
May 21	81	$474/sf	21	85
May 28	83	$438/sf	24	91
Jun 4	80	$442/sf	27	97
Jun 11	81	$427/sf	27	91
Jun 18	88	$442/sf	29	78
Jun 25	93	$442/sf	31	77
Jul 2	96	$443/sf	30	76
Jul 9	98	$447/sf	33	65
Jul 16	98	$445/sf	34	78
Jul 23	97	$436/sf	34	68
Jul 30	116	$433/sf	32	71
Aug 6	111	$434/sf	31	64
Aug 13	115	$434/sf	34	64
Aug 20	110	$426/sf	37	58
Aug 27	117	$430/sf	36	64
Sep 3	109	$427/sf	38	62
Sep 10	113	$436/sf	36	61
Sep 17	117	$439/sf	36	59
Sep 24	109	$440/sf	37	61
Oct 1	100	$441/sf	40	67
Oct 8	106	$441/sf	40	66
Oct 15	112	$434/sf	43	57
Oct 22	111	$426/sf	42	63
Oct 29	114	$422/sf	41	64
Nov 5	110	$418/sf	44	58
Nov 12	115	$449/sf	42	60
Nov 19	111	$449/sf	42	60
Nov 26	106	$450/sf	49	60
Dec 3	99	$454/sf	47	56
Dec 10	99	$455/sf	47	55
Dec 17	89	$450/sf	49	51
Dec 24	83	$462/sf	55	51
Dec 31	78	$462/sf	61	49
Jan 7	72	$469/sf	55	49
Jan 14	78	$487/sf	49	48
Jan 21	82	$488/sf	49	49
Jan 28	68	$480/sf	53	64
Feb 4	72	$483/sf	53	69
Feb 11	75	$481/sf	45	74
Feb 18	67	$482/sf	46	76
Feb 25	67	$494/sf	47	67
Mar 4	82	$478/sf	38	64
Mar 11	90	$471/sf	36	65
Mar 18	95	$475/sf	37	69
Mar 25	98	$463/sf	36	72
Apr 1	94	$462/sf	38	71
Apr 8	91	$455/sf	42	75
Apr 15	93	$463/sf	42	75
Apr 22	94	$481/sf	44	78
Apr 29	99	$469/sf	43	84
May 6	106	$466/sf	38	81
May 13	102	$470/sf	38	78
May 20	112	$453/sf	31	79
May 27	110	$464/sf	34	80
Jun 3	113	$469/sf	33	84
Jun 10	109	$463/sf	36	88
Jun 17	109	$465/sf	35	89
Jun 24	105	$474/sf	37	84
Jul 1	96	$474/sf	38	79
Jul 8	89	$472/sf	46	85
Jul 15	100	$490/sf	43	82
Jul 22	94	$494/sf	44	84
Jul 29	97	$493/sf	44	78
Aug 5	99	$490/sf	43	69
Aug 12	101	$482/sf	39	65
Aug 19	103	$487/sf	39	64
Aug 26	106	$476/sf	44	59
Sep 2	96	$471/sf	48	59
Sep 9	88	$477/sf	48	59
Sep 16	94	$474/sf	41	56
Sep 23	86	$467/sf	46	56
Sep 30	84	$467/sf	50	58
Oct 7	80	$487/sf	44	56
Oct 14	82	$478/sf	44	54
Oct 21	70	$470/sf	47	57
Oct 28	66	$458/sf	44	52
Nov 4	60	$460/sf	40	50
Nov 11	71	$462/sf	44	56
Nov 18	72	$472/sf	36	59
Nov 25	66	$473/sf	39	61
Dec 2	57	$481/sf	43	58
Dec 9	58	$458/sf	38	48
Dec 16	51	$458/sf	43	51
Dec 23	46	$463/sf	46	49
Dec 30	45	$460/sf	48	43
Jan 6	40	$453/sf	51	40

The $1,000,000 – $1,500,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 1	91	$532/sf	72	68
Jan 8	99	$551/sf	64	64
Jan 15	96	$535/sf	61	75
Jan 22	107	$515/sf	63	82
Jan 29	108	$512/sf	57	91
Feb 5	110	$518/sf	49	100
Feb 12	117	$487/sf	46	106
Feb 19	107	$500/sf	45	114
Feb 26	112	$485/sf	46	117
Mar 5	111	$496/sf	45	115
Mar 12	126	$475/sf	43	109
Mar 19	125	$487/sf	47	129
Mar 26	133	$484/sf	47	124
Apr 2	139	$495/sf	47	121
Apr 9	148	$485/sf	51	119
Apr 16	145	$474/sf	45	114
Apr 23	162	$470/sf	43	117
Apr 30	162	$486/sf	42	121
May 7	180	$495/sf	40	117
May 14	182	$491/sf	41	127
May 21	184	$475/sf	40	135
May 28	188	$473/sf	40	139
Jun 4	189	$469/sf	43	148
Jun 11	199	$469/sf	45	142
Jun 18	193	$465/sf	44	143
Jun 25	211	$476/sf	39	141
Jul 2	206	$483/sf	41	142
Jul 9	201	$483/sf	45	146
Jul 16	200	$502/sf	44	145
Jul 23	217	$504/sf	45	148
Jul 30	210	$493/sf	48	154
Aug 6	209	$493/sf	45	146
Aug 13	214	$496/sf	44	147
Aug 20	205	$494/sf	46	145
Aug 27	211	$493/sf	46	134
Sep 3	207	$486/sf	45	129
Sep 10	211	$489/sf	47	125
Sep 17	194	$483/sf	49	120
Sep 24	209	$476/sf	49	108
Oct 1	207	$476/sf	48	107
Oct 8	201	$481/sf	48	110
Oct 15	203	$487/sf	48	110
Oct 22	203	$492/sf	48	108
Oct 29	204	$495/sf	51	104
Nov 5	204	$490/sf	53	98
Nov 12	198	$498/sf	52	97
Nov 19	192	$498/sf	55	93
Nov 26	181	$492/sf	58	92
Dec 3	174	$478/sf	57	93
Dec 10	164	$487/sf	60	88
Dec 17	157	$487/sf	62	85
Dec 24	148	$493/sf	65	75
Dec 31	147	$495/sf	64	76
Jan 7	154	$497/sf	58	69
Jan 14	158	$489/sf	54	65
Jan 21	161	$503/sf	55	56
Jan 28	169	$489/sf	52	60
Feb 4	167	$502/sf	50	69
Feb 11	157	$504/sf	51	84
Feb 18	168	$494/sf	47	83
Feb 25	175	$494/sf	49	84
Mar 4	174	$507/sf	44	86
Mar 11	175	$501/sf	44	91
Mar 18	194	$526/sf	43	99
Mar 25	189	$510/sf	44	104
Apr 1	188	$513/sf	45	107
Apr 8	215	$512/sf	45	104
Apr 15	211	$515/sf	46	108
Apr 22	201	$513/sf	49	117
Apr 29	193	$507/sf	49	128
May 6	211	$506/sf	49	121
May 13	201	$497/sf	52	131
May 20	207	$507/sf	48	129
May 27	198	$513/sf	49	133
Jun 3	197	$510/sf	51	129
Jun 10	204	$511/sf	50	129
Jun 17	198	$506/sf	55	117
Jun 24	192	$510/sf	55	120
Jul 1	198	$503/sf	56	119
Jul 8	186	$512/sf	58	123
Jul 15	191	$504/sf	57	126
Jul 22	189	$498/sf	57	125
Jul 29	192	$494/sf	56	120
Aug 5	186	$498/sf	52	119
Aug 12	180	$486/sf	52	114
Aug 19	179	$493/sf	50	127
Aug 26	183	$518/sf	45	120
Sep 2	184	$517/sf	46	105
Sep 9	182	$508/sf	48	105
Sep 16	188	$515/sf	47	100
Sep 23	185	$530/sf	46	93
Sep 30	179	$532/sf	49	95
Oct 7	179	$533/sf	50	97
Oct 14	171	$546/sf	55	94
Oct 21	165	$551/sf	55	99
Oct 28	160	$545/sf	54	103
Nov 4	151	$541/sf	53	103
Nov 11	147	$545/sf	57	104
Nov 18	142	$563/sf	58	103
Nov 25	133	$583/sf	60	109
Dec 2	125	$559/sf	64	108
Dec 9	122	$567/sf	63	95
Dec 16	111	$566/sf	62	90
Dec 23	98	$594/sf	66	81
Dec 30	94	$597/sf	70	70
Jan 6	89	$615/sf	67	72

The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 1	84	$612/sf	86	40
Jan 8	98	$612/sf	73	42
Jan 15	98	$607/sf	73	42
Jan 22	111	$589/sf	63	42
Jan 29	120	$577/sf	61	45
Feb 5	114	$586/sf	56	51
Feb 12	118	$566/sf	52	57
Feb 19	121	$596/sf	53	64
Feb 26	122	$596/sf	53	64
Mar 5	125	$593/sf	56	70
Mar 12	131	$602/sf	53	67
Mar 19	120	$598/sf	58	74
Mar 26	121	$596/sf	57	75
Apr 2	128	$593/sf	55	70
Apr 9	140	$612/sf	54	66
Apr 16	146	$617/sf	50	67
Apr 23	149	$616/sf	53	78
Apr 30	152	$605/sf	60	81
May 7	157	$618/sf	63	85
May 14	158	$614/sf	63	87
May 21	154	$637/sf	54	82
May 28	146	$633/sf	58	80
Jun 4	149	$614/sf	54	76
Jun 11	158	$615/sf	50	83
Jun 18	164	$606/sf	53	77
Jun 25	160	$606/sf	56	73
Jul 2	160	$607/sf	56	69
Jul 9	160	$590/sf	63	65
Jul 16	160	$591/sf	63	66
Jul 23	156	$587/sf	65	67
Jul 30	158	$582/sf	68	69
Aug 6	165	$590/sf	59	70
Aug 13	166	$596/sf	58	72
Aug 20	172	$608/sf	61	67
Aug 27	171	$622/sf	66	65
Sep 3	172	$611/sf	67	64
Sep 10	176	$603/sf	69	52
Sep 17	177	$613/sf	70	56
Sep 24	174	$618/sf	72	56
Oct 1	164	$624/sf	73	57
Oct 8	169	$612/sf	68	57
Oct 15	174	$612/sf	69	51
Oct 22	171	$602/sf	69	55
Oct 29	159	$601/sf	73	57
Nov 5	158	$601/sf	68	63
Nov 12	157	$605/sf	66	57
Nov 19	147	$624/sf	70	57
Nov 26	141	$620/sf	74	53
Dec 3	131	$611/sf	76	53
Dec 10	127	$619/sf	76	50
Dec 17	118	$632/sf	80	45
Dec 24	109	$644/sf	86	37
Dec 31	104	$636/sf	94	35
Jan 7	108	$628/sf	86	33
Jan 14	107	$647/sf	83	37
Jan 21	113	$665/sf	77	39
Jan 28	116	$676/sf	76	42
Feb 4	125	$665/sf	73	41
Feb 11	131	$670/sf	72	43
Feb 18	132	$674/sf	71	49
Feb 25	130	$670/sf	66	53
Mar 4	134	$677/sf	59	59
Mar 11	143	$674/sf	57	53
Mar 18	143	$649/sf	56	67
Mar 25	133	$642/sf	56	66
Apr 1	131	$621/sf	53	69
Apr 8	139	$618/sf	49	77
Apr 15	149	$630/sf	50	75
Apr 22	145	$616/sf	50	72
Apr 29	148	$605/sf	49	77
May 6	157	$606/sf	48	74
May 13	159	$599/sf	47	72
May 20	170	$612/sf	48	73
May 27	165	$595/sf	50	79
Jun 3	172	$607/sf	52	70
Jun 10	181	$604/sf	52	70
Jun 17	186	$610/sf	56	69
Jun 24	197	$616/sf	56	59
Jul 1	195	$600/sf	58	65
Jul 8	191	$610/sf	58	71
Jul 15	194	$601/sf	58	69
Jul 22	189	$608/sf	58	74
Jul 29	194	$606/sf	60	73
Aug 5	203	$614/sf	61	67
Aug 12	207	$612/sf	64	65
Aug 19	199	$596/sf	64	79
Aug 26	200	$598/sf	64	79
Sep 2	203	$614/sf	62	69
Sep 9	195	$600/sf	66	73
Sep 16	198	$596/sf	66	65
Sep 23	197	$590/sf	68	75
Sep 30	191	$596/sf	68	74
Oct 7	184	$608/sf	70	77
Oct 14	177	$608/sf	61	79
Oct 21	177	$600/sf	62	71
Oct 28	177	$580/sf	61	67
Nov 4	170	$595/sf	62	67
Nov 11	162	$590/sf	66	71
Nov 18	150	$602/sf	69	70
Nov 25	141	$605/sf	69	74
Dec 2	130	$600/sf	69	73
Dec 9	134	$618/sf	65	63
Dec 16	126	$620/sf	70	59
Dec 23	125	$612/sf	77	53
Dec 30	113	$627/sf	79	62
Jan 6	113	$605/sf	71	57

The $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Dec 30, 2019	161	$744/sf	106	33
Jan 6, 2020	147	$756/sf	97	31

The $3,000,000+ Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Dec 30, 2019	267	$1,226/sf	144	28
Jan 6, 2020	246	$1,218/sf	138	29

Weekly NSDCC New Listings and New Pendings

Week	New Listings	New Pendings	Total Pendings
Jan 1, 2018	18	15
Jan 8	89	31
Jan 15	87	43
Jan 22	87	43
Jan 29	81	48	244
Feb 5	77	53	262
Feb 12	74	53	280
Feb 19	89	55	295
Feb 26	87	57	318
Mar 5	84	62	328
Mar 12	107	61	339
Mar 19	88	59	350
Mar 26	99	55	347
Apr 2	87	66	346
Apr 9	106	58	336
Apr 16	98	54	331
Apr 23	108	67	353
Apr 30	98	70	362
May 7	138	68	355
May 14	99	78	386
May 21	115	63	369
May 28	92	84	387
Jun 4	91	77	410
Jun 11	100	56	401
Jun 18	103	54	376
Jun 25	105	54	358
Jul 2	83	78	361
Jul 9	74	50	342
Jul 16	109	83	361
Jul 23	101	54	357
Jul 30	97	67	364
Aug 6	101	60	349
Aug 13	103	54	350
Aug 20	89	58	334
Aug 27	83	46	325
Sep 3	80	59	312
Sep 10	83	46	302
Sep 17	91	53	305
Sep 24	85	41	296
Oct 1	95	47	302
Oct 8	93	55	307
Oct 15	84	40	291
Oct 22	101	51	298
Oct 29	69	55	299
Nov 5	75	49	293
Nov 12	82	43	284
Nov 19	59	42	282
Nov 26	33	27	270
Dec 3	67	45	264
Dec 10	66	37	247
Dec 17	34	37	231
Dec 24	29	37	212
Dec 31	12	20	211
Jan 7, 2019	92	24	203
Jan 14	81	35	205
Jan 21	77	33	196
Jan 28	87	47	217
Feb 4	92	45	233
Feb 11	83	48	255
Feb 18	84	52	263
Feb 25	72	39	261
Mar 4	113	52	267
Mar 11	122	63	284
Mar 18	100	64	302
Mar 25	95	70	324
Apr 1	87	53	331
Apr 8	113	58	342
Apr 15	104	59	341
Apr 22	94	67	353
Apr 29	117	74	367
May 6	113	67	364
May 13	86	48	362
May 20	132	55	357
May 27	100	78	375
Jun 3	109	55	365
Jun 10	106	54	366
Jun 17	94	59	363
Jun 24	97	63	344
Jul 1	89	53	343
Jul 8	81	66	363
Jul 15	115	59	364
Jul 22	89	72	367
Jul 29	102	47	354
Aug 5	102	47	336
Aug 12	96	51	328
Aug 19	89	61	350
Aug 26	86	40	326
Sep 2	67	44	300
Sep 9	75	52	305
Sep 16	102	46	296
Sep 23	67	59	301
Sep 30	68	56	306
Oct 7	76	44	305
Oct 14	78	51	302
Oct 21	71	49	296
Oct 28	76	55	291
Nov 4	87	54	283
Nov 11	61	52	291
Nov 18	69	50	288
Nov 25	60	57	303
Dec 2	19	34	297
Dec 9	58	29	261
Dec 16	45	40	251
Dec 23	32	37	232
Dec 30	16	26	226
Jan 6	56	21	218