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The Zillow folks offered up their forecast for the San Diego area.  Below is the actual change in their home-value index for the 12 months ending in September, and then their forecast for 2016:

Snapshot 1 (11-20-2015 7-44 AM)

Snapshot 2 (11-20-2015 7-49 AM)

Are we heading for flatsville?  Let’s see how they did last year.

These were their predicted and actual changes in the ZHVI for the 12 months ending in October, 2015:

Zillow HVI Appreciation Forecast
Prediction
Actual
La Jolla
+1.7%
+6.3%
Carlsbad
+1.4%
+5.9%
Solana Beach
+1.2%
+6.4%
San Diego
+1.2%
+6.4%
Del Mar
+1.0%
+1.1%
Carmel Valley
-1.0%
+5.4%
Encinitas
-1.0%
+7.6%
RSF
-2.0%
+10.1%

They were pretty close for Del Mar!

Zillow claims to have the most sophisticated data and algorithms, yet they were way off.  It goes to show you how any forecast is really just a guess.

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