The Zillow folks offered up their forecast for the San Diego area. Below is the actual change in their home-value index for the 12 months ending in September, and then their forecast for 2016:
Are we heading for flatsville? Let’s see how they did last year.
These were their predicted and actual changes in the ZHVI for the 12 months ending in October, 2015:
| Zillow HVI Appreciation Forecast | ||
| La Jolla | ||
| Carlsbad | ||
| Solana Beach | ||
| San Diego | ||
| Del Mar | ||
| Carmel Valley | ||
| Encinitas | ||
| RSF |
They were pretty close for Del Mar!
Zillow claims to have the most sophisticated data and algorithms, yet they were way off. It goes to show you how any forecast is really just a guess.
Seems like they’re almost as accurate at forecasting housing appreciation as weather forecasters are at forecasting the weather! LOL!
Interesting. So they were flat-out wrong in a big way, but will get it right next time. If they just keep saying 1-3% ish, sooner or later they might be right in some sub-markets (with margin of error of 3% +/-). LOL. I’ll take the composite guesses of JTR + blog followers for our area any day.
R$F must be an anomaly based on product mix. Sure doesn’t feel like houses are flying off the shelf out there. Maybe just the real expensive ones….
This spurred my to see how the zestimates are looking. The zestimate on my house dropped 30% from July to today. I guess the bubble must have burst. Oh well, back to the salt mines.
Zillow has the advantage of transparent and consistant data that people trust. Also it’s easy to look back over time and see the change.
Right or wrong because their data easier to access Zillow will become the version of history people remember.