Dataquick released the August sales yesterday, and at first glance you might think we should be looking for lifeboats – this is the second month in a row that Dataquick has reported SD sales dropping more than 18%:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2014/News/California/Southern-CA/RRSCA140911.aspx
But August, 2013 was probably the last month that buyers were able to lock in a mortgage rate in the 3s, before rates jumped at the end of June.
If you look at San Diego’s 2014 monthly sales, they look consistent and remarkably strong considering that prices have been going up every month. Here are the MLS counts for all property types in the county:
Jan = 2,116
Feb = 2,271
Mar = 2,778
Apr = 3,321
May = 3,255
Jun = 3,182
Jul = 3,043
Aug = 2,806
If sales fall off the next few months, the blame will be on the holidays, and sellers will expect a vibrant selling season again next spring.
It’s a buyer’s strike, or, perhaps, the would-be buyers are tapped out.
Not sure what you are looking at here that would make you say that. The drop from July?
For whatever reason, buyers aren’t allowing or encouraging a frenzy this year. Maybe it was mortgage rates pushing them out of their price range, or the simple fact renting is a far more viable option in certain neighborhoods. Why pay $4500 a month when you can pay $2300 and rent?
I’m not saying we’re doomed, but prices are dropping throughout Southern California or leveling out in hotter areas. Buyers aren’t accepting that a property is suddenly worth 10% more than last year. We have a HUGE inventory compared to previous years, sales are down. Supply is up, demand is down… we all know what that does to prices.
Single data points make great headlines. With yoy prices still up and less than robust inventory to work with, the lack of big volume makes sense. Perhaps we are at equilibrium. I still believe that any home priced at, but not above, recent comps will sell rather fast. Getting that 5-10% bump right now takes luck or something unique about the house.
I don’t think this will turn into a housing crash IMO,
Maybe a few good deal to be had this winter season.
Would not count on it to last when spring hits next year.
Anyway IMO.
buyers have figured out that chasing the market will potentially doom them to another foreclosure?
While others have locked themselves into 5-6 years of free rent if the bottom falls out again.
We have a HUGE inventory compared to previous years
NSDCC detached-home inventory of active listings is 8.8% higher today than last year’s frenzy-depleted number, and less than all years prior.
Here is all-SD:
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/california/san-diego/
I don’t know what your intentions are here, but you’re done. Time to go start your own blog.
Good link. Crazy that 7 years ago this month there were over 21,000 units for sale vs 9500 today. And the median ask over this past summer selling season is all time high, at least going back to 2006.