The inventory should find relative equilibrium for the next month as buyers grab something and get settled before school starts. What happens after that (August and beyond) is when it will get interesting. The highest category, Over-$2,400,000, has 416 listings now and the new MLS system only allows 400 maximum. I’ll use the actual count but stats from the first 400 listings:
North SD County’s Coastal Region (La Jolla-to-Carlsbad)
The UNDER-$800,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
DOM |
Avg SF |
November 25 |
95 |
$376/sf |
47 |
1,988sf |
December 2 |
79 |
$371/sf |
50 |
2,047sf |
December 9 |
72 |
$383/sf |
43 |
1,954sf |
December 16 |
81 |
$378/sf |
42 |
1,948sf |
December 23 |
77 |
$374/sf |
49 |
1,937sf |
December 30 |
76 |
$373/sf |
51 |
1,950sf |
January 6 |
74 |
$370/sf |
49 |
1,995sf |
January 13 |
71 |
$381/sf |
44 |
1,921sf |
January 20 |
72 |
$384/sf |
41 |
1,877sf |
January 27 |
75 |
$399/sf |
40 |
1,891sf |
February 3 |
78 |
$409/sf |
41 |
1,876sf |
February 10 |
82 |
$395/sf |
38 |
1,927sf |
February 17 |
85 |
$387/sf |
35 |
1,929sf |
February 24 |
90 |
$383/sf |
37 |
2,008sf |
March 3 |
82 |
$397/sf |
39 |
1,942sf |
March 10 |
88 |
$377/sf |
37 |
2,008sf |
March 17 |
89 |
$366/sf |
34 |
2,038sf |
March 24 |
79 |
$369/sf |
34 |
2,031sf |
March 31 |
78 |
$367/sf |
39 |
2,069sf |
April 7 |
87 |
$373/sf |
32 |
2,054sf |
April 14 |
97 |
$380/sf |
31 |
2,000sf |
April 21 |
87 |
$377/sf |
32 |
2,062sf |
April 28 |
107 |
$379/sf |
29 |
2,044sf |
May 5 |
114 |
$376/sf |
27 |
2,046sf |
May 12 |
108 |
$385/sf |
31 |
2,012sf |
May 19 |
107 |
$385/sf |
0 |
0sf |
May 26 |
105 |
$375/sf |
34 |
0sf |
Jun 2 |
102 |
$376/sf |
36 |
0sf |
Jun 9 |
102 |
$377/sf |
37 |
0sf |
Jun 16 |
104 |
$369/sf |
35 |
0sf |
Jun 23 |
111 |
$380/sf |
34 |
0sf |
Jun 30 |
119 |
$376/sf |
36 |
0sf |
The $800,000 – $1,400,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
DOM |
Avg SF |
November 25 |
245 |
$448/sf |
61 |
2,856sf |
December 2 |
239 |
$448/sf |
64 |
2,851sf |
December 9 |
226 |
$461/sf |
65 |
2,812sf |
December 16 |
211 |
$464/sf |
66 |
2,794sf |
December 23 |
197 |
$453/sf |
73 |
2,813sf |
December 30 |
173 |
$450/sf |
78 |
2,821sf |
January 6 |
170 |
$470/sf |
65 |
2,757sf |
January 13 |
168 |
$463/sf |
59 |
2,764sf |
January 20 |
174 |
$444/sf |
51 |
2,882sf |
January 27 |
166 |
$435/sf |
52 |
2,902sf |
February 3 |
165 |
$441/sf |
53 |
2,857sf |
February 10 |
175 |
$443/sf |
51 |
2,852sf |
February 17 |
180 |
$447/sf |
50 |
2,803sf |
February 24 |
188 |
$438/sf |
44 |
2,846sf |
March 3 |
202 |
$421/sf |
44 |
2,936sf |
March 10 |
215 |
$431/sf |
41 |
2,854sf |
March 17 |
223 |
$421/sf |
42 |
2,918sf |
March 24 |
217 |
$419/sf |
42 |
2,941sf |
March 31 |
223 |
$425/sf |
44 |
2,887sf |
April 7 |
224 |
$428/sf |
44 |
2,881sf |
April 14 |
233 |
$429/sf |
44 |
2,892sf |
April 21 |
237 |
$432/sf |
44 |
2,894sf |
April 28 |
240 |
$430/sf |
45 |
2,848sf |
May 5 |
272 |
$434/sf |
42 |
2,838sf |
May 12 |
269 |
$438/sf |
42 |
2,831sf |
May 19 |
275 |
$436/sf |
0 |
0sf |
May 26 |
276 |
$429/sf |
49 |
0sf |
Jun 2 |
270 |
$431/sf |
50 |
0sf |
Jun 9 |
292 |
$454/sf |
52 |
0sf |
Jun 16 |
299 |
$443/sf |
52 |
0sf |
Jun 23 |
304 |
$437/sf |
51 |
0sf |
Jun 30 |
304 |
$431/sf |
53 |
0sf |
The $1,400,000 – $2,400,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
DOM |
Avg SF |
November 25 |
227 |
$580/sf |
81 |
3,692sf |
December 2 |
222 |
$588/sf |
85 |
3,653sf |
December 9 |
219 |
$586/sf |
87 |
3,636sf |
December 16 |
211 |
$593/sf |
88 |
3,627sf |
December 23 |
196 |
$601/sf |
94 |
3,581sf |
December 30 |
190 |
$597/sf |
100 |
3,591sf |
January 6 |
175 |
$595/sf |
97 |
3,594sf |
January 13 |
184 |
$600/sf |
92 |
3,590sf |
January 20 |
187 |
$589/sf |
83 |
3,663sf |
January 27 |
195 |
$589/sf |
80 |
3,649sf |
February 3 |
196 |
$573/sf |
78 |
3,730sf |
February 10 |
205 |
$583/sf |
76 |
3,687sf |
February 17 |
216 |
$582/sf |
72 |
3,729sf |
February 24 |
211 |
$584/sf |
77 |
3,744sf |
March 3 |
221 |
$585/sf |
78 |
3,761sf |
March 10 |
228 |
$585/sf |
77 |
3,740sf |
March 17 |
217 |
$584/sf |
75 |
3,744sf |
March 24 |
231 |
$584/sf |
73 |
3,742sf |
March 31 |
232 |
$569/sf |
71 |
3,750sf |
April 7 |
230 |
$569/sf |
71 |
3,753sf |
April 14 |
233 |
$564/sf |
69 |
3,748sf |
April 21 |
244 |
$563/sf |
67 |
3,780sf |
April 28 |
238 |
$566/sf |
66 |
3,757sf |
May 5 |
247 |
$571/sf |
61 |
3,746sf |
May 12 |
251 |
$559/sf |
64 |
3,782sf |
May 19 |
256 |
$562/sf |
0 |
0sf |
May 26 |
263 |
$552/sf |
69 |
0sf |
Jun 2 |
261 |
$561/sf |
69 |
0sf |
Jun 9 |
273 |
$566/sf |
70 |
0sf |
Jun 16 |
276 |
$571/sf |
70 |
0sf |
Jun 23 |
289 |
$581/sf |
70 |
0sf |
Jun 30 |
292 |
$594/sf |
72 |
0sf |
The OVER-$2,400,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
DOM |
Avg SF |
November 25 |
340 |
$1,040/sf |
159 |
6,347sf |
December 2 |
330 |
$1,049/sf |
160 |
6,342sf |
December 9 |
318 |
$1,057/sf |
163 |
6,392sf |
December 16 |
317 |
$1,049/sf |
163 |
6,420sf |
December 23 |
302 |
$1,063/sf |
169 |
6,405sf |
December 30 |
285 |
$1,074/sf |
174 |
6,460sf |
January 6 |
285 |
$1,073/sf |
171 |
6,477sf |
January 13 |
295 |
$1,057/sf |
168 |
6,480sf |
January 20 |
297 |
$1,050/sf |
157 |
6,537sf |
January 27 |
307 |
$1,041/sf |
152 |
6,513sf |
February 3 |
297 |
$1,048/sf |
152 |
6,545sf |
February 10 |
315 |
$1,024/sf |
146 |
6,519sf |
February 17 |
315 |
$1,030/sf |
148 |
6,572sf |
February 24 |
314 |
$1,028/sf |
148 |
6,611sf |
March 3 |
309 |
$1,004/sf |
145 |
6,628sf |
March 10 |
316 |
$1,011/sf |
141 |
6,576sf |
March 17 |
329 |
$999/sf |
136 |
6,557sf |
March 24 |
331 |
$995/sf |
131 |
6,563sf |
March 31 |
336 |
$995/sf |
131 |
6,574sf |
April 7 |
345 |
$988/sf |
128 |
6,477sf |
April 14 |
349 |
$996/sf |
126 |
6,534sf |
April 21 |
353 |
$995/sf |
124 |
6,523sf |
April 28 |
366 |
$980/sf |
120 |
6,543sf |
May 5 |
379 |
$974/sf |
119 |
6,539sf |
May 12 |
388 |
$967/sf |
118 |
6,509sf |
May 19 |
390 |
$1,000/sf |
0 |
0sf |
May 26 |
393 |
$1,015/sf |
122 |
0sf |
Jun 2 |
395 |
$1,007/sf |
124 |
0sf |
Jun 9 |
398 |
$1,010/sf |
125 |
0sf |
Jun 16 |
397 |
$1,016/sf |
130 |
0sf |
Jun 23 |
417 |
$911/sf |
116 |
0sf |
Jun 30 |
416 |
$904/sf |
120 |
0sf |
It occured to me that the counting process doesn’t pick up the late reporters accurately enough, so I went back four weeks to update – there were a handful of new listings and a couple of pendings added to each week:
Weekly NSDCC New Listings and New Pendings
Week |
New Listings |
New Pendings |
May 30 |
70 |
84 |
June 5 |
87 |
64 |
June 11 |
77 |
69 |
June 17 |
73 |
66 |
June 24 |
100 |
69 |
July 1 |
86 |
64 |
July 8 |
81 |
53 |
July 15 |
106 |
54 |
July 22 |
105 |
89 |
July 29 |
71 |
74 |
Aug 5 |
105 |
64 |
Aug 12 |
77 |
61 |
Aug 19 |
88 |
73 |
Aug 26 |
87 |
77 |
Sep 2 |
76 |
55 |
Sep 9 |
85 |
58 |
Sep 16 |
102 |
61 |
Sep 23 |
84 |
54 |
Sep 30 |
73 |
80 |
Oct 7 |
80 |
61 |
Oct 14 |
78 |
53 |
Oct 21 |
70 |
63 |
Oct 28 |
54 |
40 |
Nov 4 |
63 |
53 |
Nov 11 |
49 |
64 |
Nov 18 |
52 |
44 |
Nov 25 |
48 |
40 |
Dec 2 |
25 |
34 |
Dec 9 |
45 |
47 |
Dec 16 |
56 |
46 |
Dec 23 |
21 |
39 |
Dec 30 |
14 |
23 |
Jan 6 |
63 |
25 |
Jan 13 |
75 |
44 |
Jan 20 |
98 |
51 |
Jan 27 |
71 |
56 |
Feb 3 |
74 |
63 |
Feb 10 |
95 |
59 |
Feb 17 |
81 |
76 |
Feb 24 |
80 |
70 |
Mar 3 |
88 |
71 |
Mar 10 |
98 |
54 |
Mar 17 |
87 |
65 |
Mar 24 |
89 |
76 |
Mar 31 |
77 |
57 |
April 7 |
98 |
61 |
April 14 |
108 |
72 |
April 21 |
87 |
62 |
April 28 |
122 |
73 |
May 5 |
144 |
67 |
May 12 |
96 |
85 |
May 19 |
87 |
61 |
May 26 |
97 |
72 |
Jun 2 |
90 |
59 |
Jun 9 |
108 |
52 |
Jun 16 |
103 |
65 |
Jun 23 |
131 |
62 |
Jun 30 |
85 |
70 |
Does not look like a flood or a frenzy, looks kind of normal-ish maybe a bit slow.