San Diego’s Case-Shiller Index had another nice monthly gain, up 1.34% from February’s number. The total gain for the first three months of 2014 is higher than the first quarter total in 2013!
The YoY increase is staying among the best in the country too, ranking the third highest of the Composite-20 cities. The SD CSI was +18.9% YoY, behind only Las Vegas (+21.2%) and San Francisco (+20.9%).
Our current 199.60 index is still 20% below the San Diego all-time high of 250.34, recorded in November, 2005.
These are the non-seasonally adjusted numbers below (though the seasonally-adjusted number was the same this month):
if history repeats then you can expect a steady decline in the very near future. it will be interpreted as a weakening housing market, but it will most likely be a reflection of sellers accepting the reality that they missed out on the frenzy resulting in lowered pricing.
but then again, what do I know……
What “history repeating” are you referring to? Calculated Risk just posted about this topic, with real data:
Where on those graphs do you see a “slow and steady decline” – certainly not on the nominal price graph! I don’t think we’ll see inflation anytime soon, so perhaps you think we’re going to see some Japanese-style deflation?
Anyway, the only declines I see are “bubble bursting” and everyone is in agreement there is no bubble right now. That doesn’t mean it’s a great time to buy a house but it doesn’t mean we’re in for a “steady decline.” My money is on “appreciation in line with inflation.” I.e. holding steady, no froth, no decline.
I wouldn’t read too much into my comment. The only history I am referring to is in the graph itself. In early 2000’s you had a huge run up in cheap credit as everyone was bidding up the prices on homes. Then, when the markets crashed and credit dried up you had the huge drop off in the index from 2006 to 2010. Then, there was a brief run up in the index which was driven almost entirely by the tax credit. Then, after the tax credit moved sales forward there was a decline in the index. Follow that with ZIRP from the Fed which led to the frenzy from late 2012 to 2013.
In each of those instances, the pause was “brief” before the decline set in.