To give you an example of pricing accuracy, let’s compare today’s list prices to the average $/sf of last month’s solds.
There were 227 detached homes that sold under $1,200,000 last month, and they averaged $381/sf – and today’s list prices are averaging $398/sf, which is only a 4% spread.
There were 103 houses that sold over $1,200,000 last month, and they averaged $555/sf – but today’s list price average $776/sf!
Yes, the smaller and more-likely-to-be-tract-houses are easier to valuate and have a wider audience. But it demonstrates how treacherous the pricing is for the higher-end folks – both buyers and sellers.
The UNDER-$1,200,000 Market:
Date | ||||
April 29 | ||||
May 5 | ||||
May 9 | ||||
May 18 | ||||
May 23 | ||||
May 30 | ||||
June 5 | ||||
June 11 | ||||
June 17 | ||||
June 24 | ||||
July 1 | ||||
July 8 | ||||
July 15 | ||||
July 22 | ||||
July 29 | ||||
Aug 5 | ||||
Aug 12 | ||||
Aug 19 | ||||
Aug 26 | ||||
Sep 2 | ||||
Sep 9 | ||||
Sep 16 | ||||
Sep 23 |
The OVER-$1,200,000 Market:
Date | ||||
April 29 | ||||
May 5 | ||||
May 9 | ||||
May 18 | ||||
May 23 | ||||
May 30 | ||||
June 5 | ||||
June 11 | ||||
June 17 | ||||
June 24 | ||||
July 1 | ||||
July 8 | ||||
July 15 | ||||
July 22 | ||||
July 29 | ||||
Aug 5 | ||||
Aug 12 | ||||
Aug 19 | ||||
Aug 26 | ||||
Sep 2 | ||||
Sep 9 | ||||
Sep 16 | ||||
Sep 23 |
I’ve been mentioning the $/sf of all NSDCC solds this month, because in the first couple of weeks it was hovering around $500/sf. Today it is down to $479/sf, but still well above last month’s $436/sf.
Almost all of the increase is in the Over-$1,200,000 market, which is where you can get some wild fluctuations due to the product mix.
Weekly NSDCC New Listings and New Pendings
Week | ||
May 30 | ||
June 5 | ||
June 11 | ||
June 17 | ||
June 24 | ||
July 1 | ||
July 8 | ||
July 15 | ||
July 22 | ||
July 29 | ||
Aug 5 | ||
Aug 12 | ||
Aug 19 | ||
Aug 26 | ||
Sep 2 | ||
Sep 9 | ||
Sep 16 | ||
Sep 23 |
Tomorrow the Case-Shiller Index for July will be released.
I have been scratching my head at the over 1.2 numbers for awhile. I’m thinking that you need a 3rd category since the 3.0-40 million dollar RSF and Del Mar listings that sit for years on end probably skew the numbers a bit. Maybe x-out 92067 alltogether since its a completely different animal… I know you put these numbers up for general reference, but it would be interesting to see how different the upper end would look if the numbers were for 1.2-2.75 which would capture the higher end of carmel valley, low to mid RSF and most of the coast…. while eliminating the uber high end which, for the most part, is not swayed by buyer frenzies and daily ticks of the interest rates….