Inventory Watch – Price Issue

September 9, 2013

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2 Comments

This guy gets quoted in the media a lot because he is the only bear left – read his full report here:

In summary, the past two-years of massive Fed, Gov’t, and bank intrusion into the housing market went way too far. Houses are mis-allocated, there is no shortage of houses “in which to live”, and in ALL the popular “mega-recovery” regions are at least 50% expensive on a monthly payment basis than they were at the peak of the housing bubble in 2006.

And all it will take is the wave of “cash-money” buyers ‘easing off” a bit; “some” of the organic first-time and repeat buyer cohort stepping away due to the sudden lack of “affordability”; and/or a wave of supply from “panic sellers” hitting the market to send sales volume and prices down sharply, over a very short period of time. And I think the rate “surge” catalyst has caused all three to occur at the same time.

Note that he is just guessing that the market will dive due to demand being pulled forward.

Granted, the Y-O-Y comparisons should start looking grim in the coming months, when measured against the boisterous gains we’ve had on the run up. But there are plenty of buyers – it will just be a question of whether they will be willing to pay the same (or more) than those who got the lower rates.

The UNDER-$1,200,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	DOM	Avg SF
April 29	201	$384/sf	36	2,599sf
May 5	195	$381/sf	36	2,633sf
May 9	207	$387/sf	35	2,624sf
May 18	241	$397/sf	33	2,566sf
May 23	236	$397/sf	34	2,529sf
May 30	230	$391/sf	35	2,591sf
June 5	229	$393/sf	35	2,577sf
June 11	239	$390/sf	34	2,569sf
June 17	246	$389/sf	36	2,577sf
June 24	255	$397/sf	36	2,535sf
July 1	244	$401/sf	38	2,526sf
July 8	256	$398/sf	38	2,530sf
July 15	269	$403/sf	38	2,486sf
July 22	258	$401/sf	39	2,442sf
July 29	262	$386/sf	39	2,493sf
Aug 5	287	$393/sf	38	2,495sf
Aug 12	300	$391/sf	40	2,521sf
Aug 19	304	$395/sf	41	2,491sf
Aug 26	308	$392/sf	41	2,469sf
Sep 2	304	$395/sf	41	2,453sf
Sep 9	303	$402/sf	40	2,453sf

The OVER-$1,200,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	DOM	Avg SF
April 29	620	$806/sf	94	5,183sf
May 5	606	$806/sf	93	5,223sf
May 9	628	$808/sf	93	5,150sf
May 18	653	$807/sf	92	5,161sf
May 23	661	$814/sf	92	5,141sf
May 30	659	$805/sf	95	5,222sf
June 5	663	$794/sf	96	5,185sf
June 11	672	$779/sf	96	5,163sf
June 17	661	$787/sf	99	5,164sf
June 24	679	$791/sf	98	5,097sf
July 1	705	$785/sf	94	5,084sf
July 8	702	$779/sf	95	5,100sf
July 15	736	$776/sf	94	5,038sf
July 22	748	$782/sf	96	5,043sf
July 29	736	$782/sf	100	5,057sf
Aug 5	754	$765/sf	100	5,024sf
Aug 12	750	$767/sf	102	5,032sf
Aug 19	742	$769/sf	104	5,009sf
Aug 26	740	$781/sf	106	4,962sf
Sep 2	736	$773/sf	107	4,928sf
Sep 9	724	$781/sf	108	5,006sf

These are probably the numbers we’ll be seeing for the next 1-2 months:

Weekly NSDCC New Listings and New Pendings

Week	New Listings	New Pendings
May 30	70	84
June 5	87	64
June 11	77	69
June 17	73	66
June 24	100	69
July 1	86	64
July 8	81	53
July 15	106	54
July 22	105	89
July 29	71	74
Aug 5	105	64
Aug 12	77	61
Aug 19	88	73
Aug 26	87	77
Sep 2	76	55
Sep 9	85	58

2 Comments

Jim the Realtor on September 9, 2013 at 6:31 am

NSDCC Average $/sf of 2013 Monthly Sales:

Jan: $379/sf
Feb: $400
Mar: $404
Apr: $420
May: $416
Jun: $453
Jul: $418
Aug: $437
Sep: $502

September’s average is based on only 42 sales so far, instead of the 200-300 sales each full month. But no evidence of a dive so far.
Dacounselor on September 11, 2013 at 3:29 pm

I agree Jim, there seem to be plenty of buyers. I question not only whether they are willing but able to fund the steep premiums of the current market and also whether sellers are going to be willing to downshift due to rising rates. Game on. I read Hanson to say that we have not seen the full effect of rising rates yet because the effect will lag the deals that have recently closed and been reported as those deals were cut a month or two ago. We’ll see.