The media has begun its assault on the weakening real estate market, but is it weak? Not really, at least not around here.
Over the last nine years, NSDCC detached-home sales have averaged 223 closings per month, and up until last year, there was only one month that totaled over 300 sales – the 304 in June, 2005.
The red line below shows that recently we have had several months around the 300-sales-per-month mark:
Back in the last frenzy, the 2002-2003 era, we averaged 319 sales per month, but it was at an average $325/sf. Now that we are over $400/sf and hitting roughly the same monthly sales counts, there isn’t anywhere to go except down.
We have experienced elevated levels of sales over the last year or so – rarely have we ever sold 300 houses per month. If we settled in at 275 sales per month that averaged $375/sf, it would be a healthy market. But statistically it will look like the sky is falling, compared to where we are now.
The party in real estate is just getting started. These doom and gloomers missed the boat again, as usual.