The media has begun its assault on the weakening real estate market, but is it weak?  Not really, at least not around here.

Over the last nine years, NSDCC detached-home sales have averaged 223 closings per month, and up until last year, there was only one month that totaled over 300 sales – the 304 in June, 2005.

The red line below shows that recently we have had several months around the 300-sales-per-month mark:

graph (36)

Back in the last frenzy, the 2002-2003 era, we averaged 319 sales per month, but it was at an average $325/sf.  Now that we are over $400/sf and hitting roughly the same monthly sales counts, there isn’t anywhere to go except down.

We have experienced elevated levels of sales over the last year or so – rarely have we ever sold 300 houses per month.  If we settled in at 275 sales per month that averaged $375/sf, it would be a healthy market.  But statistically it will look like the sky is falling, compared to where we are now.

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