For more perspective on the current inventory, consider the closed escrows over the last 30 days.
There were 150 NSDCC detached homes sold under $1,200,000 in the last 30 days (avg. $336/sf), so we can call the 262 actives about a 1.75-month supply.
There were 91 sales for $1,200,000+ (avg. $549/sf), which makes the 736 active listings about an 8-month supply of high-enders.
The UNDER-$1,200,000 Market:
| Date | ||||
| April 29 | ||||
| May 5 | ||||
| May 9 | ||||
| May 18 | ||||
| May 23 | ||||
| May 30 | ||||
| June 5 | ||||
| June 11 | ||||
| June 17 | ||||
| June 24 | ||||
| July 1 | ||||
| July 8 | ||||
| July 15 | ||||
| July 22 | ||||
| July 29 |
The OVER-$1,200,000 Market:
| Date | ||||
| April 29 | ||||
| May 5 | ||||
| May 9 | ||||
| May 18 | ||||
| May 23 | ||||
| May 30 | ||||
| June 5 | ||||
| June 11 | ||||
| June 17 | ||||
| June 24 | ||||
| July 1 | ||||
| July 8 | ||||
| July 15 | ||||
| July 22 | ||||
| July 29 |
We’ve had a couple of very strong weeks, and this might continue for the rest of the year (like it did last year!). The counts of new listings could drop, and/or OPTs come to their senses – and nerved-up buyers start gobbling:
Weekly NSDCC New Listings and New Pendings
| Week | ||
| May 30 | ||
| June 5 | ||
| June 11 | ||
| June 17 | ||
| June 24 | ||
| July 1 | ||
| July 8 | ||
| July 15 | ||
| July 22 | ||
| July 29 |
The interesting dynamic seems to be that nobody wants, or needs, to sell right now. If you sell in North County Coastal, what and where are you going to buy that’s better?
Plus many homeowners are long time owners and many have refinanced. Not to mention that if you sold you might not qualify for another loan.
Add to that older residents are “aging in place” and when they pass it goes to descendants who squabble or think any shack is worth an unrealistic amount.
Tough market to buy into.
Add the sexy media stories to whip up more frenzy:
Two-thirds of would-be homeowners would resort to “aggressive tactics” — such as paying the seller’s closing costs, bidding above the asking price or borrowing money from loved ones for a down payment — to get the home of their dreams, according to the survey by real estate website Trulia.
“Consumers are worried that mortgage rates and prices will keep rising before they buy, and many are willing to fight over the limited number of homes for sale,” Jed Kolko, Trulia’s chief economist, said in a statement.
http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-housing-aggressive-buyers-20130728,0,1798284.story?track=rss
Investors in Los Angeles County flipped 419 homes in June, about 150 fewer than the peak. Orange County investors flipped 133 homes last month, down about 60 from the peak in that county. But San Diego County investors recently broke housing-boom records, flipping 301 houses in May.
Across the region, the ratio of homes flipped to total sales has already surpassed pre-recession levels, the data show. The peak ratio broke records this year, when the rate of homes flipped sat at 7% in February. The rate was 5.6% for June.
Scott Mednick recently bought a fixer-upper home in Mission Viejo for $389,000. After investing $60,000 on renovations, he sold it for $545,000 — netting nearly $100,000.
When prices and sales were slow, from 2007 to 2009, would-be investors were hesitant to jump into a market they didn’t understand, said Mednick, president of the Orange County Investors Club, an education and networking group for real estate investors.
“Now I think there’s a frenzy that’s going on,” he said.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-house-flips-20130729,0,6412098.story
And wait until tomorrow when the next (dated) Case-Shiller Index reports it’s peak frenzy number, driving sellers into the stratosphere.
The market has slowed in my part of silicon Valley. From zero to four listings in less than 60 days in my subdivision. All over $1MM. Three have pools, and they all need major work. Note to sellers: re-plaster and replace the missing tile before you put the house on the market. Two houses are original from the late 80’s with little updating and are grossly overpriced. The one story has been nicely updated and is the lowest priced. No pool to slow buyer interest. It will sell, probably quickly. The fourth has a nice view lot but very little usable yard because of the downslope. Lots of updates, but not all consistent. It will sell, probably at less than list, and the buyer pool is limited.
Even cheaper houses are slowing. I have a friend that could not get her house on the market in time for the spring frenzy. That’s probably going to cost her $50k and extend the marketing time on a sub-$700k house.
I’m going to do a summary on the CV canyon-front homes highlighted here a couple of months ago.
While there was an initial stall from the quantity and pricing, eventually they started selling and I’m going to guess that half of them have sold already.
They will probably share a similar trait as yours in the SV – the ones with the newest, upgraded look will be the ones selling.