Here is Professor Shiller dwelling on the reasons to be cautious – you never hear him talk about how today’s market is being driven by big money (the all-cash purchases, or big down payments blowing out the low-down-payment buyers) and it’s long-term impact:
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Jim Klinge
Klinge Realty Group
Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home?
Contact Jim the Realtor!
- 682 S. Coast Hwy 101, Suite #110
Encinitas, CA 92024 - (858) 997-3801 call or text
- klingerealty@gmail.com
CA DRE #01527365, CA DRE #00873197
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Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation. Thank you Donna and Jim, Jerry and MaryTrustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years. Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community. In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough! Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale. Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process. For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further! ---Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless. So grateful that I had them on my side!Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. We first found Jim through his blog at bubbleinfo.com, which really showcased his knowledge of SoCal real estate. Since then we've done three transactions with Jim and Donna, and they are an incredible full service agency, with Jim's deep market insight and Donna's deft contract and project management. We trust them implicitly in their analysis and strategy, which is based on years of experience. They're always available and on top of things, and we strongly recommend them to anyone.Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. The Good The Klinge Realty Group operates like a finely tuned machine, with a very personal touch. We contacted them on a Sunday and they were talking to us about our family and our needs on our living room couch the following day. They carefully listened to us and worked with us to identify the best and quickest path to listing within 2 weeks to take advantage of the low inventory conditions in our South Carlsbad neighborhood. They knew our tract specifically and had many previous sales there over the years - they came prepared with a thorough analysis of comparative sales and recommended a pricing strategy that they felt confident would yield offers the first weekend on the market. The Great Over the next two weeks Donna coordinated a range of vendors who she knew from experience could get the preparation to list work we needed done on time and with high quality. Our light tune-up involved excellent experiences with their stagers, landscapers, contractors, electricians, and plumbers. Throughout this period Donna's daily communication was clear, concise, and responsive. Any time we had questions Donna picked up the phone or texted immediately - but almost always, she answered our questions before we even knew we had them. The Outstanding We had a tricky situation with a shared fence that could have delayed our escrow. Donna used superb mediation skills to negotiate the terms of replacement and was personally on site with the fence contractor to make sure everything went smoothly. The fence looks great and escrow closed on time. The Truly Exceptional Our house came on the market on a Wednesday and between then and Monday morning Jim was personally at all three open houses. He was in constant communication explaining potential buyer reaction and strength. As he predicted offers began to come in on Saturday and each one was incrementally higher than the last. At the end we had 5 offers, 4 of which were over list, and the final accepted offer was $100,000 over list. In addition to being over list it included rent back terms that met our needs. The Recommendation For all of these reasons we would strongly recommend The Klinge Team to anyone wanting to sell in North County Coastal San Diego. I had been reading Jim's bubbleinfo.com blog for 15 years and knew when the time came to sell that he would be our first call. Jim Klinge is not your standard realtor. He is keenly aware of market conditions and sales strategies. And, works his tail off - though not as hard as Donna . At this point he's gone from realtor to friend and I plan to have him over to grill and chill at our new place to talk real estate, but also just about life and raising kids in San Diego. He's more interested in relationships than his sales numbers - and that's why his sales numbers are so high. We have already recommended the Klinge's to some close friends and another successful sale is on deck right around the corner...Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. We recently had the pleasure of working with Jim and Donna from Klinge Realty Group to sell our house, and we couldn't be more satisfied with the experience. From the initial meeting, they listened attentively to our needs and provided invaluable guidance on specific improvements to get our home market ready. Their responsiveness throughout the entire process was truly impressive. Anytime we had questions or concerns, they were quick to address them, ensuring we felt comfortable and informed every step of the way. What stood out the most was their team and extensive network of tradespeople, which made addressing any necessary repairs or updates seamless and stress-free. Thanks to their expertise and dedication, our house sold quickly and at a great price. We highly recommend Jim and Donna to anyone looking to buy or sell a home. They are a fantastic team who truly care about their clients and deliver exceptional results.Load more
I need to get a job as a professor. This guy is so behind the times. He is saying the recovery didn’t begin till 2012?
The smart money was buying in 2009-2010. That is where the real money was made.
They were basically giving away homes in phx and vegas at one point. Of course these areas are going to rebound fast. They were undervalued when you consider the costs to rebuild them. They are so much more affordable compared to other areas. You deal with some heat in the summer but winters are pretty nice. I happen to like the desert.
It always seems the prices start to rise in s cal first. when they reach a certain point people go elsewhere looking.
I was in home depot yesterday and the price of a sheet of 15/16″ OSB was close to 20.00 with tax and the new lumber tax. A 4×8 1/2″ thick piece of sheetrock was almost 9.00 with tax. Building materials have went up a lot.
In Phoenix, A 30 year old 3/2 home, never upgraded or remodeled, no pool selling for $150 per square foot, higher than the 2006 price points. This home needs at least $50k in upgrades. Most recent model match sold at $110 sq foot.
Yeah, ain’t it grand
So as I understand it, “artificial” is defined by using the past’s definition of “normal”?
Who’s to say we’re not experiencing a new normal? Or that there really isn’t any “normal”. Rather, each point in history has its own unique global economic characteristics?
Agreed, it is what it is, and it doesn’t have to look like the past.
Government support is part of the landscape, and they will probably jump in and save us every time now.
Avgjoe,
And that my friend is why I was saying on this blog years ago that house prices will go up, because cement, stones, bricks, sticks and labour have!
I believe that it’s just a matter of time until the exponential growth in debt will blow up in our face. It could blow up in our face as a deflationary depression, it could blow up in our face as hyper inflation, and it might take longer than I think to materialize but it’s bound to happen. It will probably be clear in hindsight that the current policies of postponing the problem are going to make the unwind that much worse, but that fact doesn’t make people feel good.
Housing is a highly leveraged asset that is currently relying on low servicing costs and super high leverage ratios. Since there isn’t much room to increase the leverage (0 down is back are we really going to 125% LTV again), or lower the servicing costs (Japan got down to 2.5% mortgage rates, so there’s a little room there) there’s not much juicing you can do unless you figure out a way to spike incomes. Of course since you are at record low servicing costs and almost record high levels of leverage you could certainly see things going wrong in the blink of an eye. I don’t think it will happen in the short term and I certainly think San Diego will do better than the average. The government is giving you a chance to cash out your equity while they can but I don’t expect that option to be there forever.
I think part of the real estate attraction is that people have really lost faith and trust in the stock market. The volume on the exchanges is just pathetic.
When people own real estate that don’t worry about someone cooking the books or going bankrupt to wipe out shareholders.
Real estate is tangible and the avg person can understand it. There are no P/E rations or other BS to confuse people.
I think corrections are healthy and part of the game.
The notion of infinite and ongoing “government support” is the flawed premise upon which real estate fantasies are built.
But we aren’t willing to elect anybody to shake up the status quo. All we need is more ink for the printing press!
Not just about the gov’t, tho’.
There was roughly a 10-year span not so long ago – JtR remembers 😉 – where we were exiting a war, experiencing double-digit inflation, double-digit unemployment, an impeached president, an Arab-Israeli war, and longs lines at the gas pump.
(Can you just imagine if all that happened now how the blogosphere would light up with proclamations that the USA is done for? Obviously, we survived. BTW, me-thinks folks like Warren Buffet viewed our recent global credit implosion with this historic perspective. But I digress…)
Was that economic environment “artificial” for the time? What about the 10 years after that? Or after that? No, me-thinks at any point in time, “it is what is is”, as Jim said.
The difference is sustainability, and in that regards government spending is a bubble that’ll burst as surely as stocks in 2000 and housing in 2006.
“THE DIFFERENCE IS … government spending…”
As a percentage of GDP, public debt was higher during World War II than now.
http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1940_2017USp_13s1li0181085_613cs_H0f