Not That Impressive Statistically

Written by Jim the Realtor

February 27, 2013

NSDCC detached-home sales between January 1 and February 15:

Year #Sales Avg SF Avg $$/SF Median SP Median DOM
2010
198
3,121
$378/sf
$836,250
41
2011
229
2,994
$379/sf
$850,000
64
2012
239
2,970
$362/sf
$764,000
63
2013
271
3,138
$383/sf
$875,000
36

Except for the elevated sales and reduced market time, these stats appear fairly range-bound.

It is the low inventory and practically-free money that is driving the frenzy. If anything changes with either, the frenzy would slow.

13 Comments

  1. Kelja

    Thank you to Mr. Bernacki. Low interest & no inventory because of intentional restricted supply. I know some agents really crying the blues because so few homes are on the market – – at any price.

  2. Jim the Realtor

    Yep, and nobody wanted it for the same price in October.

  3. avgjoe

    ok I have a question for you all.

    Someone got a home loan from countrywide.

    Loan sold to wall street, packaged into a security, and sold by wall street to investors.

    MBS then bought by FED as part of QE.

    A Homeowner with house in the package of securities decides to stop paying their mortgage.

    Servcing rights were sold to seperate entity.

    Who actually owns the house, (benificary of house) if it is foreclosed on?

    Is it all the owners of the MBS which that house was sold into? I guess the MBS would name a trustee to handle any issues with problems that arise.

  4. sdduuuude

    Avg Joe – do you take us for a team of lawyers ? Cuz that’s what it takes to answer your question.

    Jim, I think you are right. The frenzy could very well turn to a reasonable market with some inventory.

    And it isn’t really a non-stop frenzy. It’s more like fishing. You sit there and wait for a couple weeks, then there is a 2-day frenzy for the one new house, then nothing for another two weeks. It’s just wierd. Then there’s the houses that have been sitting there forever. There’s no frenzy there, either.

    Also, even though the money is practically free, it isn’t all that easy to get. Lenders are making buyers work pretty hard to get a good loan – not that it matters because you can’t buy w/o all cash anyway.

    And seriously – why haven’t you called about that pocket listing. It’s simple. 3 car garage. 2700 sq. ft. CVMS district. North of the 56. No HOA. Got it?

  5. KeljaFirst

    If the present trajectory continues with this market – and no one knows – prices will rise to the point where it makes sense to the banks to foreclose in earnest. The reason the banks don’t foreclose on those not paying on mortgages now is that they would have to book incredible losses. Instead they let people squat and not pay anything. (I know several people like this.)

    So higher prices will bring more inventory and then lower prices.

  6. sdduuuude

    Good theory, KeljaFirst. Gonna take time for that to happen. Couple of years, I’m starting to think.

  7. Jim the Realtor

    And seriously – why haven’t you called about that pocket listing. It’s simple. 3 car garage. 2700 sq. ft. CVMS district. North of the 56. No HOA. Got it?

    This was pretty close – how come you didn’t like this one?

    http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-130009017-12742_Chandon_Ct_San_Diego_CA_92130

    People were throwing money at them during the open house – now pending, and probably at $900,000+

  8. avgjoe

    no I dont take you folks for lawyers but I think there are some smart people lurking around here. Just like to put some questions on the table to see what kind of answers show up.

  9. tj & the bear

    It is the low inventory and practically-free money that is driving the frenzy.

    Nailed it!

    IMHO the macro-economy will interfere with the “few more years” plan.

  10. cvseeker

    Is it more expensive to buy the same house north of 56 or south of 56 in general?

  11. Kingside

    Avg Joe:

    The way Countrywide loans were securitized, they were generally set up that Countrywide would retain servicing rights under what is known as a “pooling and servicing agreement (PSA)in which the loans were pooled and placed into a trust, and interests in the trust were sold to certificate holders. In the case of Countrywide, the trustee of the trust was usually Bank of New York Mellon.

    Does not matter whether the fed or anyone else bought up the certificates, the loans were maintained in a trust and as the payments came in, servicer and trustee would take their fees and distribute the proceeds to the certificate holders.

    With non-payment, it is the trustee who would foreclose. The deed would then be issued to an entity named something like “Bank of New York Mellon as trustee for the Certificate Holders CWALT Alternative Trust 200x-yz Mortgage Pass Through Certificates, Series 200x-yz”

  12. avgjoe

    awesome kingside Now I and readers have a better idea of how all this securitization works. Thank you for your expertise.

Klinge Realty Group - Compass

Jim Klinge
Klinge Realty Group

Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home?

Contact Jim the Realtor!

CA DRE #01527365CA DRE #00873197

Pin It on Pinterest