Here’s Shiller being his normal conservative self, saying that we will see a lot more underwater homeowners defaulting, and those foreclosures leading to additional inventory of unsold homes. But did say that his futures index is expecting a 3% annual price increase nationally for each of the next four years:
For what is likely a different view, Bruce Norris will be speaking at SDCIA in a few weeks:
http://www.sdcia.com/
For those not familier with what Bruce Norris means by “Quadrant 4 has arrived”, he has a view that California’s real estate market goes through cycles, and quandrant 4 is that point in his modeling where the market is moving from a flat market to a boom market.