The latest Case-Shiller Index comes out tomorrow, and Zillow is predicting a 1.7% year-over-year increase in the 20-city composite number. Trying to bring more localized color to the pricing picture isn’t easy because there are differences in every segment.
These are the general statistics for detached sales in La Jolla, Del Mar, Solana Beach, Carmel Valley, and RSF that closed during the June 1st-to-September 30th time period. I was hoping that we’d see statistical evidence of rising prices – either fewer sales on the lower-end, indicating that the ‘market’ had been moving up, and/or that the average square footage was declining. But neither has been happening much:
$0 – $800,000 Price Range
| Year | # of Sales | Avg SF | Avg. $/sf | DOM |
| 2010 | ||||
| 2011 | ||||
| 2012 |
$800,0001 – $1,000,000 Price Range
| Year | # of Sales | Avg SF | Avg. $/sf | DOM |
| 2010 | ||||
| 2011 | ||||
| 2012 |
$1,000,001 – $1,200,000 Price Range
| Year | # of Sales | Avg SF | Avg. $/sf | DOM |
| 2010 | ||||
| 2011 | ||||
| 2012 |
$1,200,001+ Price Range
| Year | # of Sales | Avg SF | Avg. $/sf | DOM |
| 2010 | ||||
| 2011 | ||||
| 2012 |
All Det. Properties Closed Jun 1-Sept 30
| Year | # of Sales | Avg SF | Avg. $/sf | DOM |
| 2010 | ||||
| 2011 | ||||
| 2012 |
The reason it feels so hot? There are a lot more sales – 34% more than last year, which is quite a pop in such a short time frame. But other than that, you can’t really say that there has been any significant increases that would indicate much-higher pricing, at least statistically. (the identical 2,908sf in the $1.0-$1.2 range is a fluke!)
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/10/zillow-forecasts-case-shiller-house.html
