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Let’s look forward to future closings – how do the active, contingent, and pending listings stack up?

San Diego County All-Residential MLS listings:

MLS Listings Actives % of Mkt Pend/Cont % of Mkt Sold6mo % of Mkt
SD REO
240
4%
430
5%
2,381
15%
SD SS
466
8%
4,473
49%
4,250
27%
SD Non
4,865
88%
4,250
46%
9,231
58%

Close to half of the closed sales between April 1st and September 30th were distressed sales, but now they make up only 12% of the active inventory! While we have become dependent on the distressed sales, they get snapped up quickly. No wonder it feels dry as a bone!

What about the detached-home listings in our North SD County Coastal region?

NSDCC Detached-Home MLS listings:

MLS Listings Actives % of Mkt Pend/Cont % of Mkt Sold6mo % of Mkt
NSDCC REO
3
1%
13
2%
94
5%
NSDCC SS
18
2%
162
29%
187
11%
NSDCC Non
823
97%
388
69%
1,458
84%

If you are looking for a “bank deal”, the NSDCC region looks like the Mohave Desert! The foreclosures and REO listings are really thinning out – look forward to next year being the battle between short-sales and regular equity sellers.

It is impressive how many regular sellers have been able to compete with the distressed sales – 84% of the closings in the last six months have been non-distrssed! Buyers want quality, and the distressed sales tend to be the inferior properties – the non-distressed sales averaged $389/sf, and distressed sales were $283/sf.

It looks like the 50/50 split of short sales vs. non-SS will likely prevail throughout the county for the next year or two, but it’s been quieter around NSDCC. Will more owners of over-encumbered quality properties decide to give up next year, especially if Congress only extends the debt-tax relief for 12 months? What if it doesn’t get extended?

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