The San Diego seasonally-adjusted Case-Shiller Index for July, 2012, showed it’s first year-over-year increase in 19 months. The 154.21 reading was 0.8% higher than July, 2011, and 0.1% higher month-over-month. It is still 5.7% lower than the most-recent high from May, 2010.
From David Blitzer:
“Home prices increased again in July,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “All 20 cities and both Composites were up on the month for the third time in a row. Even better, 16 of the 20 cities and both Composites rose over the last year.
“Digging into the numbers, 15 cities and both Composites had stronger annual returns in July’s report. “The news on home prices in this report confirm recent good news about housing. Single family housing starts are well ahead of last year’s pace, existing home sales are up, the inventory of homes for sale is down and foreclosure activity is slowing.”
“All in all, we are more optimistic about housing. Upbeat trends continue. For the third time in a row, all 20 cities and both Composites had monthly gains. Stronger housing numbers are a positive factor for other measures including consumer confidence.”
“The positive news in both the monthly and annual rates of change in home prices over the past few months signals a possible recovery in the housing market.”
However, no one should expect the strong price increases to continue. The Case-Shiller Composite 20 index NSA was up 1.6% from June to July. However a large portion of that increase was seasonal. On a Seasonally Adjusted (SA) basis, the Composite 20 index was up 0.4%. That is a 5% annualized rate – and that will probably not continue. I suspect much of the increase over the last few months was a “bounce off the bottom” and prices increases over the next year or two will probably be more gradual.