Hello, and welcome to blog talk radio with Rich Toscano!
For a reference point, everyone knows his blog: http://piggington.com/
Here is a link to one of his more-recent articles that we’ll be discussing tonight:
http://piggington.com/shambling_towards_affordability_november_2011
Click here to listen to the show (starting with a blast from Billy Zoom):
http://www.blogtalkradio.com/jim-the-realtor/2012/01/24/real-estate-with-jim-the-realtor
Jim Klinge
Klinge Realty Group
Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home?
Contact Jim the Realtor!
CA DRE #01527365, CA DRE #00873197
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation. Thank you Donna and Jim, Jerry and MaryTrustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years. Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community. In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough! Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale. Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process. For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further! ---Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless. So grateful that I had them on my side!Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. We first found Jim through his blog at bubbleinfo.com, which really showcased his knowledge of SoCal real estate. Since then we've done three transactions with Jim and Donna, and they are an incredible full service agency, with Jim's deep market insight and Donna's deft contract and project management. We trust them implicitly in their analysis and strategy, which is based on years of experience. They're always available and on top of things, and we strongly recommend them to anyone.Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. The Good The Klinge Realty Group operates like a finely tuned machine, with a very personal touch. We contacted them on a Sunday and they were talking to us about our family and our needs on our living room couch the following day. They carefully listened to us and worked with us to identify the best and quickest path to listing within 2 weeks to take advantage of the low inventory conditions in our South Carlsbad neighborhood. They knew our tract specifically and had many previous sales there over the years - they came prepared with a thorough analysis of comparative sales and recommended a pricing strategy that they felt confident would yield offers the first weekend on the market. The Great Over the next two weeks Donna coordinated a range of vendors who she knew from experience could get the preparation to list work we needed done on time and with high quality. Our light tune-up involved excellent experiences with their stagers, landscapers, contractors, electricians, and plumbers. Throughout this period Donna's daily communication was clear, concise, and responsive. Any time we had questions Donna picked up the phone or texted immediately - but almost always, she answered our questions before we even knew we had them. The Outstanding We had a tricky situation with a shared fence that could have delayed our escrow. Donna used superb mediation skills to negotiate the terms of replacement and was personally on site with the fence contractor to make sure everything went smoothly. The fence looks great and escrow closed on time. The Truly Exceptional Our house came on the market on a Wednesday and between then and Monday morning Jim was personally at all three open houses. He was in constant communication explaining potential buyer reaction and strength. As he predicted offers began to come in on Saturday and each one was incrementally higher than the last. At the end we had 5 offers, 4 of which were over list, and the final accepted offer was $100,000 over list. In addition to being over list it included rent back terms that met our needs. The Recommendation For all of these reasons we would strongly recommend The Klinge Team to anyone wanting to sell in North County Coastal San Diego. I had been reading Jim's bubbleinfo.com blog for 15 years and knew when the time came to sell that he would be our first call. Jim Klinge is not your standard realtor. He is keenly aware of market conditions and sales strategies. And, works his tail off - though not as hard as Donna . At this point he's gone from realtor to friend and I plan to have him over to grill and chill at our new place to talk real estate, but also just about life and raising kids in San Diego. He's more interested in relationships than his sales numbers - and that's why his sales numbers are so high. We have already recommended the Klinge's to some close friends and another successful sale is on deck right around the corner...Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google. We recently had the pleasure of working with Jim and Donna from Klinge Realty Group to sell our house, and we couldn't be more satisfied with the experience. From the initial meeting, they listened attentively to our needs and provided invaluable guidance on specific improvements to get our home market ready. Their responsiveness throughout the entire process was truly impressive. Anytime we had questions or concerns, they were quick to address them, ensuring we felt comfortable and informed every step of the way. What stood out the most was their team and extensive network of tradespeople, which made addressing any necessary repairs or updates seamless and stress-free. Thanks to their expertise and dedication, our house sold quickly and at a great price. We highly recommend Jim and Donna to anyone looking to buy or sell a home. They are a fantastic team who truly care about their clients and deliver exceptional results.Load more
You two are NOT describing a healthy housing market.
Given that Rich has charted the relative affordability and rates are historically low, why are the vital signs still so weak?
To what do you attribute such buyer sensitivity?
More… You both focus on SD, but what are your thoughts on the national market.
Even more… the prevalence of cash offers, high downs, etc. suggests the market belongs almost entirely to the strong hands. Thoughts?
Somewhat of a disconnect there, though.
If demand is there but not supply, why are less-than-ideal homes sitting? Where are the people that would normally get those? Typically a significant demand/supply imbalance would raise prices.
Are you sure demand isn’t a mile wide and an inch deep?
p.s.: “tj” is my normal optimistic self, whereas “the bear” is that part of me I discovered back in 2003 when I woke up to what was happening.
Another good show, Jim. Too bad your rabid followers are all phone-shy! 🙂
Thanks for participating!
It works fine to take questions off the blog or by email, so I need to encourage people to speak up in whatever form is most comfortable for them.
Brief highlights:
A. The normal San Diego price/per-capita-income ratio is around 8, and currently we’re at 7.3.
B. The overshoot is around 10% now, and hard to say how much more if any.
C. Jim went on and on with reasons why the overshoot could be muted: Low rates, low supply, people are getting antsy due to age, seller reluctane to lower price, and foreclosure spigot appears to be turned down/off.
D. Rich bought a house (closed last week) and felt some of the same things over buyers feel – especially that when a good one gets served up, you have to act quickly, and decisively.
E. Jim mentioned this listing as a great example of the resiliency in the CV market – it sold for virtually the same price in 2005 AND 2006 as it listed for today:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-120004152-5680_Willowmere_Ln_San_Diego_CA_92130
Jim thinks that with the current low inventory of homes around this area, the seller is likely to get his price, or close.
F. In reaction to tj’s question above, Jim thought that the weaker vital signs might improve in 6-12 months. But with such low supply the sales could drop further, and could sway statistics unduly (up or down).
G. Rich thought that once rates go up, it could spur fence-sitters to buy.
H. Jim didn’t say it, but he was thinking that sellers will be very reluctant to lower their price just because rates went up.
Jim,
Something occurred to me while reflecting on the show tonight.
During the bubble people were obviously sensitive to rates, not prices; it was all about the payment. Well, now I believe we have just the opposite — people are sensitive to prices, not rates. Your observations bear that out.
The implications go much further, though. This would mean that a rate increase would not spur buying, just foster an even greater wait-and-see attitude as people wait for a reaction.
The “strong hands” that are buying now are those that you guys discussed — buyers purchasing quality long-term residences (or investors). They’re price-sensitive too, but feel they have the means to weather any future declines.
People will get off the fence now that Rich has a bought a house.
#9 TJ – My view is that people are still highly ‘payment sensitive’. Its only that, in the absence of the appreciation component in a purchase people (and lenders) are looking to reduce the % of income dedicated to their housing pmts thus keeping a lid on pricing and enthusiasm.
If your house is rising in value, you’d be willing to pay more each month (say 50% of income), but w/o that increase people are moving back to historical income ratios in the low 30% range. This is partly personal and lender induced medicine.
Thus, my thoughts are that this is, in large part, the cause of the slow downward pressure on willingness to jump in at higher prices.
When things change, price momentum turns positive across the board, banks will loosen the income ratio test, and it will feed on itself again. Not so right now.
ps: JTR – I haven’t listened to this blog radio yet, but I applaud you for pushing the boundaries and your comfort zone. Impressive putting yourself out there even further.
Bravo.
It will be interesting to see what happens when rates go up. There’s so many things going on in the housing market that aren’t typical. You have investors buying up cheap property like crazy because it yields better than 30 year bonds but what happens if those investors decide to liquidate or reduce real estate exposure and get back into bonds when rates go up. Does that keep a lid on a low end market? If it does can that effect the mid tier market with a lack of move up buyers.
It was a great show Jim. Thanks.
It looks like a full time job just updating your site and informing the public.
I dont think the rates are going up anytime soon. We are in a typically Japanese scenario and I think we will see lower and lower interest rates while prices will continue to stagnate/decline.
I know this sounds crazy, but we might see interest rates below or at 2% in the near future.
It looks like a full time job just updating your site and informing the public.
My intent is to demonstrate my devotion to assiting my clients.
I leave enough out here in the public so potential new clients see that I can contribute substantially to their cause, and hire me to help them.
This is the tip of the iceberg.
clearfund,
I’m still pushing for you to be a guest for one of Jim’s future shows. What say you two??
Just curious, if the graphs took into consideration:
1) Mello – which seems to be norm for any new communities now.
2) HOA payments – which seems to be decently increasing.
3) Master assosication fees- Absolutely nothing. Just a cable bill.
4) Property Tax – It is standard %. But it becomes bigger with the cost $$$ of house.
Here is question for all those in the know..
I am looking at a house that sold for 1.6m in 2002 and at that time had 16k / year property taxes.
Now the taxes are 19k/year and the house is for sale for 1.3m.
What taxes will I be paying if I buy the property now for 1.3m?
Will it be the current 19k/year or they will automatically adjust to the new sales price or 13k/year?
Thanks
Auto-adjust in California.
Are you in San Diego?
You mentioned previously that it looks like this is a full time job to produce the blog, but so we are clear – I am a realtor by trade and use the blog to demonstrate my abilities.
If you are in San Diego, did you, or are you, considering having me be your agent?
#17 Raj – Yes, those charts reflect sale values, which are a result of each individual factoring in all the items you mentioned in their perception of price.
#17 – No on the first 3, yes on 4 (property tax).
Clearfund & Rich t,
Mello + HOA + Master assoc. fee for a new community are (4s/delsur) approx. 500+ 200 + 75 =775. In some parts of the country where weather sucks, this money buys a home of 200K :).
If those numbers are not taken into consideration, then monthly pmt/Income graphs are off.
BTW best part of Mello is , it is 40Yrs , with an possibility of 5 additional years, with at most 2% increase per year and start date : build out completion of the community ( possibly around 2015).
Raj, for one thing, there’s always been HOA so I just don’t see it changing enough to impact the historical ratio. (If anything, if HOA rose with inflation and home prices rose faster than inflation, the HOA proportion would shrink). Mello Roos is newer I guess but I think this represents a very small portion of resale single family homes and I doubt it moves the dial very much at all.
However, as I said on the radio show, these graphs are just a ballpark to give you an idea of the general state of the market. You”d have to analyze each property, including MR etc, on its own merits.
Whoa! Hold the phone. Rich bought a house??!!
Okay. I admit since I bought mine, I have not been visiting my favorite real estate sites of late. Finally had a chance to catch up w/Jim’s and stumble upon the Radio Blog. So cool! But I read that Rich bought a house?
CONGRATS, RICH!!